665 
FXUS63 KAPX 060454
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1154 PM EST Mon Jan 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Period of light mixed precipitation Tuesday, likely resulting
  in some travel difficulties.

- Above normal temperatures to continue through the week, with
  perhaps more opportunities for periods of mixed precipitation
  at times.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 232 PM EST Mon Jan 5 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

System responsible for quite the impressive short duration snowfall 
event last night and this mornings freezing drizzle now well off to 
our east. Still plenty of lingering moisture trapped below 
impressive low level subsidence inversion keeping conditions cloudy 
across most of the Northwoods. A bit of a mild one out there this 
afternoon, with much modified Pacific air helping temperatures spike 
into the upper 20s to lower 30s across most areas.

Modified Pacific air will continue to dominate our weather for the 
foreseeable future as northern stream portion of NOAM split flow 
regime remains to our north. This definitely sets the stage for some 
complicated precipitation type concerns for this upcoming week. Fast 
moving wave set to arrive later tonight into Tuesday, kicking off 
the first of these mixed precipitation events.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Precipitation evolution, type, and amounts later tonight into Tuesday. 
Headline considerations will also need to be addressed.

Details: 

Dry and seasonably mild most of tonight, although still looking at 
plenty of lingering low clouds. Forecast becomes a bit more 
complicated very late tonight through Tuesday as fast moving 
shortwave trough and its attendant weak surface reflection move 
through lower Michigan. Forecast is complicated by both a marginal 
thermodynamic environment as well as anticipated placement and 
propagation of best forcing...with the latter having significant 
impacts on the former as well. Dprog/Dt's of the vast majority of 
the convective allowing near term guidance and their ensemble suite 
is for a bit further south displacement of best dynamics heading 
through Tuesday, with best precipitation coverage and organization 
likely cutting across areas south of M-72...and especially along and 
south of the M-55 corridor. Limited warm nose aloft and a marginal 
near freezing surface environment should result in a wintry mix of 
precipitation types...to include a window for a period a freezing 
rain Tuesday morning. Hints of transient frontogenetical responses 
may also force cooling through the elevated warm nose, causing 
perhaps a transition to wet snow during periods of heavier 
precipitation. Not looking at any real significant precipitation 
amounts, but definitely could see a glace to a tenth of an inch of 
freezing rain...again with the focus south of M-72. Expecting any 
snow amounts to remain minimal...although this could change if fgen 
response is more vigorous than currently anticipated. Fully expect 
future adjustments to this forecast as thermal trends and areas of 
enhanced forcing become more in focus (unfortunately, those may not 
be fully realized until event is underway). Definitely a mild one 
Tuesday, with highs mostly ranging through the lower and middle 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 232 PM EST Mon Jan 5 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Relatively mild stretch of weather set to continue through at least 
the first half of the weekend as cold air remains locked north of a 
northern displaced northern stream jet. Southern portion of the 
split flow regime remains active, potentially sending a rather 
moisture rich system(s) into the Great Lakes later this week into 
this weekend.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Temperature trends and addressing increasing precipitation chances 
later this week into the weekend.

Details:

Dry conditions look to take hold Tuesday night, continuing through 
at least the first half of Thursday. Big story for this period will 
be the continuation of well above normal temperatures, with highs in 
the 30s Wednesday further warming a few degrees for Thursday...when 
several locations south of the big bridge will likely make a run at 
the lower 40s for high temperatures.

Still pretty good agreement within the ensemble suite that initial 
southern stream wave will rotate northeast out of the southern 
Plains Thursday, cutting up across lower Michigan Thursday night. 
Should be a pretty decent connection to Gulf of America moisture for 
this system to utilize. Pre-system airmass will remain mild, with 
current trends supporting primarily a rain event for most of our 
area Thursday night. Will continue to monitor trends as system has 
the potential to be a decent precipitation producer given that Gulf 
tap.

Could see yet another southern stream wave rotate northeast across 
the area this weekend, with some potential for interaction with 
northern stream energy as well. Again, probably looking for at least 
some connection of Gulf of America moisture, raising the potential 
for some heavier precipitation totals. Will need to watch the 
evolution of this sytem closely, with any interaction of northern 
stream energy perhaps supplying a source to colder air and wintry 
precipitation. May see a period of post-system lake snows a well as 
temperatures attempt to cool to more normal levels to end the 
weekend into the start of next week. Definitely plenty to monitor in 
the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1154 PM EST Mon Jan 5 2026

Plenty of low clouds thru the forecast. Some spots will be low-
end MVFR at times overnight. But all will be IFR/LIFR for
Tuesday. A passing system very late tonight/Tue morning will 
bring -RA/-FZRA to MBL/TVC. Light winds.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for MIZ025>036-
     041-042.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...JZ