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677 
FXUS63 KAPX 040740
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
340 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers/storms this afternoon into early evening

- Hot and muggy weather returns tonight into Saturday

- Showers and storms possible Saturday night into Sunday

- Periods of unsettled weather next week with more seasonable temps.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 339 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Northwesterly flow aloft with upper ridge axis to our west...and 
upper low now well to our east over New England. Generalized 
troughing across the western US...with northern stream energy over 
B.C. and southern stream upper low heading toward Northern CA...with 
a negatively tilted shortwave trough stretching from NV into the 4 
Corners. Strengthening low-level southerly flow across the central 
US into central Canada; 850mb temps across the northern Plains 
rising above 20C, collocated with elevated mixed layers per 0z 
soundings. Axis of moisture stretches along a lingering BCZ/warm 
front from Manitoba down into central WI where convective activity 
has been focused thus far. Better moisture resides over TX with 
somewhat better return flow off the Gulf, though this is not 
currently well-connected with northern stream energy. 1018mb surface 
high over the EUP/eastern Ontario...leaving us high and dry, with 
0z/04 pwat of 0.33in (on the low end of climo for us for early 
July)...and keeping our air mass quite stable for now. 

Looking ahead...expect warm front to slowly pivot across the Upper 
Midwest through the day today; better return flow to our west should 
keep the pivot point somewhere over SW MI for a while...but 
eventually...better moisture looks to make inroads across northern 
Lower/EUP going into the afternoon...bringing muggy back to our area 
today for the summer lovers...and perhaps a chance for a pop-up 
shower or storm. Ridge axis pivots overhead tonight as low pressure 
tracks across northern Ontario. A shortwave trough rides into the 
Northern Plains/Upper Midwest tonight as well...setting the stage 
for an elongated SW-NE oriented surface trough across the Upper 
Midwest going into Saturday morning. 

Primary Forecast Concerns through Tonight: 

Shower/storm potential today into tonight...not impossible some 
elevated convection tries to crop up this morning...but think better 
chance for precip/storms will be this afternoon with best chance for 
diurnal heating (combined with slowly increasing mugginess) to 
destabilize things to the point of popping this afternoon into early 
evening till diurnal heating tapers off...with best chances for pop-
up activity across the interior, particularly if lake breezes are 
able to develop at all. Do have to wonder if dry low-levels will 
slow the ability for destabilization today...and perhaps limit pop-
up showers/storms. On the flipside, will have to see if any of the 
upstream convective debris wanders in here today (could limit 
diurnal heating)...though current trajectories indicate it should 
largely remain to our southwest. Some concerns for an axis of 
elevated instability to cross the area this evening into tonight, 
though still some timing uncertainty in this. Not impossible some 
activity develops upstream in the Green Bay/Western UP area if the 
instability axis is slower, which could sneak into parts of NW Lower 
and the EUP late this evening into tonight. (Best opportunity for 
forcing should be across southern Ontario into the EUP tonight with 
the disturbance passing by; LLJ looks to be strongest to our north 
tonight as well, though it should veer with time tonight.) 

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 339 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Days 2-3 (Saturday-Sunday)...Strong southwesterly flow through the 
column Saturday ahead of aforementioned shortwave plowing its way 
across the Upper Midwest will lead to a moderate swim risk for many 
Lake MI beaches on a potentially hot and busy beach weekend (highs 
likely in the 90s; heat indices approaching 100 in spots). Some 
signals for pop-up showers/storms Saturday across NE Lower, though 
think we should remain too warm/capped for much to develop. Think a 
better shot at rain/storms should be along the approaching SW-NE 
boundary moving through WI during the day; while forcing should be 
fairly weak, in this environment, could be enough to help boost 
storms, though flow aloft may be weak enough to preclude better 
storm organization. Think upstream convection will be waning as it 
approaches us Saturday night...with a concern for heavy rain as deep 
moisture (pwats nearing or exceeding 2inches) pools along the 
boundary...particularly if any kind of E-W boundary can set up and 
focus moisture transport/convergence Saturday night when the LLJ 
should be strongest. (Think the best chance for this will be to our 
north, though...and starting to see some signals that the best 
rainfall splits around us (again).) Storm concerns could hang on 
into Sunday depending on how quickly the cold front sweeps through; 
slower progression could leave NE Lower/Saginaw Bay in particular 
open for destabilization and redevelopment. 

Days 4-5 (Monday-Tuesday)...Looks as though we are on the route for 
a parade of PV maxima crossing southern Canada early next 
week...with a niblet Sunday night followed quickly by another PV 
niblet for Monday night into Tuesday. Still a lot of questions as to 
the timing and depth of these features...but certainly possible we 
could be looking at somewhat more seasonable temps (upper 70s to 
lower 80s) and continued periods of activity to start the work week. 

Days 6-7 Outlook (Wednesday-Thursday)...Overall signals point toward 
troughing trying to settle into eastern Canada/Upper Great Lakes for 
mid to late week as ridging tries to build across the southwestern 
and central US. This suggests potential for more seasonable temps 
for the latter half of the week. 

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 131 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Mainly VFR. An isolated SHRA/TSRA is possible Friday afternoon
and evening, but the chance is too small to include in the
current TAFs. Some cu will blossom during the day. Will have to
watch for fog Fri night, but the best chance will be after 06Z,
or after this TAF period.

Light winds, with onshore lake breezes in the afternoon.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FEF
LONG TERM...FEF
AVIATION...JZ