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677 FXUS63 KAPX 040740 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 340 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers/storms this afternoon into early evening - Hot and muggy weather returns tonight into Saturday - Showers and storms possible Saturday night into Sunday - Periods of unsettled weather next week with more seasonable temps. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 339 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025 PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: Northwesterly flow aloft with upper ridge axis to our west...and upper low now well to our east over New England. Generalized troughing across the western US...with northern stream energy over B.C. and southern stream upper low heading toward Northern CA...with a negatively tilted shortwave trough stretching from NV into the 4 Corners. Strengthening low-level southerly flow across the central US into central Canada; 850mb temps across the northern Plains rising above 20C, collocated with elevated mixed layers per 0z soundings. Axis of moisture stretches along a lingering BCZ/warm front from Manitoba down into central WI where convective activity has been focused thus far. Better moisture resides over TX with somewhat better return flow off the Gulf, though this is not currently well-connected with northern stream energy. 1018mb surface high over the EUP/eastern Ontario...leaving us high and dry, with 0z/04 pwat of 0.33in (on the low end of climo for us for early July)...and keeping our air mass quite stable for now. Looking ahead...expect warm front to slowly pivot across the Upper Midwest through the day today; better return flow to our west should keep the pivot point somewhere over SW MI for a while...but eventually...better moisture looks to make inroads across northern Lower/EUP going into the afternoon...bringing muggy back to our area today for the summer lovers...and perhaps a chance for a pop-up shower or storm. Ridge axis pivots overhead tonight as low pressure tracks across northern Ontario. A shortwave trough rides into the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest tonight as well...setting the stage for an elongated SW-NE oriented surface trough across the Upper Midwest going into Saturday morning. Primary Forecast Concerns through Tonight: Shower/storm potential today into tonight...not impossible some elevated convection tries to crop up this morning...but think better chance for precip/storms will be this afternoon with best chance for diurnal heating (combined with slowly increasing mugginess) to destabilize things to the point of popping this afternoon into early evening till diurnal heating tapers off...with best chances for pop- up activity across the interior, particularly if lake breezes are able to develop at all. Do have to wonder if dry low-levels will slow the ability for destabilization today...and perhaps limit pop- up showers/storms. On the flipside, will have to see if any of the upstream convective debris wanders in here today (could limit diurnal heating)...though current trajectories indicate it should largely remain to our southwest. Some concerns for an axis of elevated instability to cross the area this evening into tonight, though still some timing uncertainty in this. Not impossible some activity develops upstream in the Green Bay/Western UP area if the instability axis is slower, which could sneak into parts of NW Lower and the EUP late this evening into tonight. (Best opportunity for forcing should be across southern Ontario into the EUP tonight with the disturbance passing by; LLJ looks to be strongest to our north tonight as well, though it should veer with time tonight.) && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 339 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025 Days 2-3 (Saturday-Sunday)...Strong southwesterly flow through the column Saturday ahead of aforementioned shortwave plowing its way across the Upper Midwest will lead to a moderate swim risk for many Lake MI beaches on a potentially hot and busy beach weekend (highs likely in the 90s; heat indices approaching 100 in spots). Some signals for pop-up showers/storms Saturday across NE Lower, though think we should remain too warm/capped for much to develop. Think a better shot at rain/storms should be along the approaching SW-NE boundary moving through WI during the day; while forcing should be fairly weak, in this environment, could be enough to help boost storms, though flow aloft may be weak enough to preclude better storm organization. Think upstream convection will be waning as it approaches us Saturday night...with a concern for heavy rain as deep moisture (pwats nearing or exceeding 2inches) pools along the boundary...particularly if any kind of E-W boundary can set up and focus moisture transport/convergence Saturday night when the LLJ should be strongest. (Think the best chance for this will be to our north, though...and starting to see some signals that the best rainfall splits around us (again).) Storm concerns could hang on into Sunday depending on how quickly the cold front sweeps through; slower progression could leave NE Lower/Saginaw Bay in particular open for destabilization and redevelopment. Days 4-5 (Monday-Tuesday)...Looks as though we are on the route for a parade of PV maxima crossing southern Canada early next week...with a niblet Sunday night followed quickly by another PV niblet for Monday night into Tuesday. Still a lot of questions as to the timing and depth of these features...but certainly possible we could be looking at somewhat more seasonable temps (upper 70s to lower 80s) and continued periods of activity to start the work week. Days 6-7 Outlook (Wednesday-Thursday)...Overall signals point toward troughing trying to settle into eastern Canada/Upper Great Lakes for mid to late week as ridging tries to build across the southwestern and central US. This suggests potential for more seasonable temps for the latter half of the week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 131 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025 Mainly VFR. An isolated SHRA/TSRA is possible Friday afternoon and evening, but the chance is too small to include in the current TAFs. Some cu will blossom during the day. Will have to watch for fog Fri night, but the best chance will be after 06Z, or after this TAF period. Light winds, with onshore lake breezes in the afternoon. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...FEF LONG TERM...FEF AVIATION...JZ