532 
FXUS63 KAPX 081630 RRA
AFDAPN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...RETRANSMITTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1039 AM EDT TUE JUN 8 2004

.SHORT TERM...SFC LOW IS OVER HUDSON BAY WITH A COLD FRONT THAT 
STRETCHES INTO E COLORADO WITH ANOTHER SFC LOW. THE COLD FRONT WILL 
BE THE MAIN CONCERN OF THE PACKAGE AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION AND 
BECOMES THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. 

TEMPERATURES TODAY LOOK TO BE MAKING A RUN ON 90 IN SOME AREAS OF 
THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN AREA WILL BE THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS 
IN NE LOWER ROUGHLY FROM KSLH TO KAPN. WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN SW 
AROUND 10 MPH. WITH THE 950MB WINDS WILL BE SW AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS SO 
THE LIKELIHOOD OF A LAKE BREEZE TODAY WILL BE LOW. 

THUNDERSTORM THREAT TODAY WILL INCREASE AS THE TIME GOES ON THIS 
AFTERNOON. THERE IS NO MAJOR FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR THE AFTERNOON, 
EXCEPT THE COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND THE RRQ OF THE 500 
MB JET THAT IS CURRENTLY IN N MINNESOTA. THIS WILL MOVE INTO THE 
REGION LATE IN THE AFTERNOON, KICKING OFF THE SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS, MOSTLY LIKELY AFTER 21Z. ALTHOUGH BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z 
THE CAPE RISES TO AT LEAST 2500 J/KG ON MODIFIED SOUNDINGS WITH THE 
MUCAPE FOR THE AFTERNOON WAS AROUND 3500 J/KG. 500 MB WINDS ARE ONLY 
EXPECTED TO GET TO AROUND 30 KNOTS, BUT THEN SO IS THE 850 WINDS AND 
WITH FREEZING LEVELS ABOUT 14000 FT, EXPECT THAT INSTEAD OF SEVERE 
WEATHER, THE MOST LIKELY THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND BACK BUILDING 
THUNDERSTORMS. PWAT WILL BE AROUND 1.5 AND K INDICES WILL BE 35+. 
SO THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL BE MOST PROMINENT, THOUGH BOW ECHOES 
ARE A POSSIBILITY WITH THE WINDS UNIDIRECTIONAL AND NEARLY PARALLEL 
TO THE FRONT. 

SO WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE POPS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH MINOR 
TEMPERATURE AND WIND CHANGES. 

LUTZ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 651 AM EDT TUE JUN 8 2004
LONG TERM...UPPER RIDGE WILL GET FLATTENED DOWN A BIT MID-WEEK AS 
ENERGY RACES EAST JUST NORTH OF THE BORDER. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO S CENTRAL CANADA...PUSHING A COLD 
FRONT THRU THE AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. FRONT WILL MAKE 
STEADY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH MOVES TO ONTARIO... 
ALLOWING COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR TO ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTH. 
HOWEVER...THIS DRYING WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS. PRECIP CHANCES 
CONTINUE TO BE A FORECAST ISSUE INTO THURSDAY.

MODELS...IN GOOD AGREEMENT...OUTSIDE OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE A 
CONTINUATION OF A RECENT TREND BY THE ETA OF BEING TOO WET.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL MAKE STEADY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS THRU THE 
FORECAST AREA...AND WILL BE OVER CENTRAL LOWER MI BY DAYBREAK. BEST 
1000-850MB CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT REMAINS OVER 
WI...AGAIN IMPLYING THAT CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS MORE LIKELY 
UPSTREAM THAN HERE. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WELL TO THE NORTH WILL NOT BE A 
FACTOR...BUT DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 300MB JET 
SCREAMING EAST ACROSS CANADA WILL ASSIST CONVECTION UPSTREAM. WILL 
HAVE HIGH SCT POPS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MI...SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS IN 
EASTERN UPPER. SVR POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY INTO THE 
EVENING WHEN CONVECTION COULD STILL BE SURFACE-BASED. BY 
OVERNIGHT...500MB WINDS AROUND 35 KT ARE MARGINAL FOR CONVECTION TO 
BE SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED TO GET WINDS TO THE SURFACE.

WEDNESDAY...PROBABLY THE WETTEST DAY OF THE FORECAST. FRONT WILL 
MAKE VERY LITTLE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS...STALLING JUST SOUTH OF THE 
FORECAST AREA. LOW LEVEL JET FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE WESTERN 
LAKES COULD BE STRONGER (25-30KT BY THE TIME IT REACHES WI/IL 
BORDER)...BUT LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO CONTINUALLY FEED VERY MOIST AIR 
INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE. PWATS ARE IN EXCESS OF 1.75. AS THE UPPER JET 
AXIS TO THE NORTH CONTINUES EAST...DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCES 
MOVES INTO THIS FORECAST AREA. WILL INCREASE POPS TO HIGH LIKELY 
ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN LOWER AND MENTION HEAVY RAIN...LOWER POPS IN 
EASTERN UPPER AS LOW LEVEL DRY ADVECTION WILL OCCUR THERE WITH THE 
SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH. WE/VE HAD SOME TIME TO RECOVER FROM OUR 
LAST BOUT OF HEAVY RAIN...BUT THIS COULD STILL BE FLOOD WATCH 
MATERIAL IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FRONT RESUMES SOUTHWARD PROGRESS AND WILL BE NEAR 
THE MI/OHIO BORDER BY DAWN. THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL HEAD SOUTH 
WITH...BUT WILL STILL BE A CONCERN IN THE SOUTH HALF OF THE FORECAST 
AREA. OTHERWISE THERE IS VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. 
LIKELY POPS STILL IN ORDER SOUTH OF M-32...CHANCE FOR THE TIP OF THE 
MITT AND DRY EASTERN UPPER AS LOW LEVEL DRY AIR MAKES ADDITIONAL 
INROADS. 

THURSDAY...ENHANCED MOISTURE BAND NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL 
DETERIORATE AS THE LOW LEVEL JET REFOCUSES WEST TOWARD THE DAKOTAS. 
SHOULD STILL BE PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS AROUND...OTHERWISE COOL BUT 
DRY.

NO CHANGES TO LATER PERIODS.

&&

.APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

ZOLTOWSKI