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502 FXUS64 KAMA 031747 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1247 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1239 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Continued shower and thunderstorm chances for the next seven days. However, chances each day will vary across the CWA. Heat index values may approach or exceed 100 degrees for certain location on Saturday. The Palo Duro Canyon currently has a high chance to exceed 100 degree apparent temperatures Saturday afternoon. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 1239 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 A very dirty ridge over the Central to Southern Great Plains to Lower Mississippi River Valley will be brining some perturbations over the FA today. A mid to upper level shortwave trough over the Desert Southwest will be aiding in these perturbations. Moisture continues to get pumped into the area through West Texas bringing prospects of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into evening, mainly across the southern half of the FA. Areas around Lubbock have already seen around an inch to two inches of rain in the last few hours. Although that much rain has fallen further south of the Panhandles, the FA may not see quite as much with much of the moisture being lost before it gets here. PoPs are upwards of 50 percent across the southern TX Panhandle this afternoon going into the early evening. PoPs remain above 30 going into the overnight period. However, many of the CAMs suggest activity dropping off quite a bit after 00Z Friday. Tomorrow, the aforementioned trough swings north clipping the northern combined Panhandles. PoPs drop off a bit for everywhere except the northern Panhandles under this trough. Otherwise tomorrow should be a bit drier for most, but also slightly warmer. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1239 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Saturday, an upper level ridge builds in behind the shortwave trough bring some of the warmest temperatures to the area. Although, ambient temperatures are only progged to be in the upper 80s to lower 90s, heat indices are expected to be in the mid to upper 90s. PDC is the exception with a high in the mid 90s and heat indices in the lower triple digits, possibly up to 102. This will be thanks to dewpoints in the 60 in the western third of the combined Panhandles and in the 70s to the eastern two thirds of the Panhandles. This abundant moisture with upper level flow aloft shifting to more northwest, PoPs return in the 20 to 30 range across the board Saturday night into Sunday morning. Sunday afternoon the NBM gives 40 PoPs for the northwestern half to around 30 to the southeastern half. PoPs remain through much of the extended. However, a shift in monsoonal moisture is expected with much of the moisture transitioning over AZ and NM especially after day 6. Temperatures are expected to remain in the 80s to 90s for the afternoon highs. Widespread severe storms are not anticipated with summer time pulse convection always maintaining at least wind threat. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1244 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Cloud cover will remain across the central to southern TX Panhandle, leaving KAMA with IFR to maybe MVFR CIGs through much of period. Showers and thunderstorms may also impact KAMA as well as KDHT this period. Especially between now and 03Z Friday. Expecting south to southeasterly winds up to 15 kts. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...36 LONG TERM....36 AVIATION...36