950 
FXUS61 KALY 292336
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
736 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
In collaboration with NYS DEC and surrounding WFO's, issued
Special Weather Statement (SPS) for elevated risk of fire 
spread on Friday for areas within and adjacent to the Hudson 
River Valley. Additional SPS's will also be issued for western
MA/NW CT per coordination with WFO BOX and New England 
DEC/DEP's. Otherwise, continued trend of lowering afternoon 
dewpoints Friday through Sunday, and increased winds/wind gusts
for Friday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Elevated risk for fire spread Friday for areas within and
immediately adjacent to the Hudson River Valley, western MA and
NW CT due to dry fuels combined with gusty winds and low RH.

2) Dry weather expected for this weekend through early next
week, with next chance for widespread rainfall not until 
Thursday or Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Cold front will cross the region from NW to SE Friday morning,
preceded and accompanied by some rain showers across the SW
Adirondacks before weakening. Isolated showers/sprinkles may 
extend farther south and east into the Capital Region, however 
will remain much more limited in coverage. In the wake of the 
cold frontal passage, gusty northwest winds are expected to 
develop with gusts reaching 25-35 mph late Friday morning into 
the afternoon hours. RH values will drop to 35-45 percent within
lower elevations of the Hudson Valley and NW CT, and 45-55 
percent within slightly higher elevations of the Helderbergs, 
eastern Catskills, Taconics, Berkshires and Litchfield Hills. 
In collaboration with NYS/New England DEC's/DEP's and 
surrounding WFO's, given the drying fuels across these areas 
with little or no rainfall over the last 7+ days, a Special 
Weather Statement has been issued for 11 AM-6 PM Friday for 
elevated risk of fire spread.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Dry weather is expected this weekend through the middle of next
week, outside the very low chance of showers with a passing
frontal system Tuesday-Wednesday. Temperatures should initially
be near normal this weekend, trending above normal next week. A
stronger frontal system and approaching deep upper level trough
from the west may bring widespread rainfall for next Thursday 
or Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 00Z...VFR conditions begin the TAF cycle with mid and
high clouds increasing prior to 06Z/Fri for 
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF. Some light showers may reach KGFL between 
04Z-08Z/Fri ahead of the cold front and a TEMPO group was used 
there. Cloud bases continue to lower as the front moves close 
to eastern NY and western New England between 06Z-09Z/FRI with 
cloud bases lowering to 3.5-8 kft AGL. We did use a TEMPO for a
few showers at KPSF between 07Z-10Z/Fri and a VCSH group for KALB.
Some MVFR stratus may develop at 2.5-3 kft AGL along and in the
wake of the front between 08Z-12Z/Fri at KALB/KPSF and we 
included TEMPO for KALB and kept a prevailing cloud deck in at 
KPSF between 10Z-14Z/Sat. VFR post frontal sct-bkn 
stratocumulus will impact at all the TAF sites in the late 
morning into early to mid afternoon with bases 3.5-5 kft AGL.  

South to southeast winds will become light at 3-7 KT early this
evening with the 2 kft AGL winds increasing to 30-40 KT. LLWS
groups were included at all the TAF sites from 00Z until
08Z-10Z/Fri. The winds will veer to the southwest to west
09Z-12Z at 4-8KT, then increase from the west to northwest at
10-16 KT in the late morning into the afternoon with some gusts
25-30 KT with deeper mixing in the wake of the front.  

Outlook...

Friday Night to Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...15