National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDABQ
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDABQ
Product Timestamp: 2025-12-01 19:30 UTC
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140 FXUS65 KABQ 011930 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1230 PM MST Mon Dec 1 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1225 PM MST Mon Dec 1 2025 - A strong west and southwest crosswind will impact travel over east central areas on Tuesday afternoon, then a potentially stronger west and northwest crosswind will impact travel over east central and southeast areas on Saturday. - Accumulating snow is expected Wednesday through Thursday morning, with the northern mountains and adjacent highlands receiving a few inches. - Travel may become difficult through mountain passes and along Interstates 25 and 40 due to falling and accumulating snow Wednesday and Thursday. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 1225 PM MST Mon Dec 1 2025 Breezy north to northwest winds aloft behind a trough axis continue to clear out the skies across the Land of Enchantment today. A few breezes up to 30mph are likely to occur through Farmington, Albuquerque, and out near Clines Corners. Otherwise, temperatures remain below average today as a cold air mass continues to reside in eastern NM. Overnight, calm and clear conditions will work to bring down temperatures area wide, especially across eastern NM. Many locations will very likely see lows in the teens to low 20s across the area, with mountainous regions getting into the single digits. Concurrently, upper level westerly flow over the central mountain chain increases (~20-30kt 700mb winds overnight), creating breezy to windy conditions across the mountaintops of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. This includes the chances for mountain waves to form, as cross sections show a well defined area of negative omega with sloping, packed isentropes. Throughout Tuesday morning and mid afternoon, upper level flow further strengthens (~40-45kts at 700mb) and a surface trough develops across northeast NM. The combination of these two provides a setup for breezy conditions across eastern NM, mainly from Clines Corners eastward along I-40. 40mph and greater gusts are likely near Clines (70% chance) and are possible near Tucumcari and Clovis (30% chance). These west winds will flow down the sloping terrain in eastern NM, raising temperatures up to the high 50s and low 60s, good for near to slightly above early December averages. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 1225 PM MST Mon Dec 1 2025 Into Wednesday, flow aloft decreases ahead of the next approaching trough. This trough is expected to dive down through the Intermountain West to the Four Corners region on Wednesday, before moving through NM Wednesday night into Thursday. Models and ensembles are in very good agreement that this system should remain an open wave rather than becoming a closed low. This should allow the system to move through the area quicker than if it were to be a closed low. Another feature that will assist this system is a backdoor cold front pushing into northeast NM through the day Wednesday. With the upslope surface flow against the central mountains along with the synoptic ascent provided by the trough, the northern mountains and adjacent highlands have a very good chance to see accumulating snow. Current probabilities have at least a 50% chance for 2" of snowfall from Clines Corners to Glorieta, with increasing probabilities further north for the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. For the northern mountains, there is a good chance that another round of Winter Weather Advisories may be needed due to snowfall accumulation. Locations along the I-25 corridor of the east slopes of the Sangres have a solid chance (50-60%) to see slick and icy roads resulting in minor travel impacts from snowfall. Similar probabilities exist for I-40 from Moriarty to Santa Rosa. All in all, while the mountains have seen several snowfall events so far, some lower elevation locations may see their first appreciable snowfall event of the season. After this next system passes, northwest flow dominates the region. Breezy conditions are favored through the afternoons of the late week into next weekend, with Saturday favored to feature the strongest winds up in the 40-45mph range of highest gusts. Temperatures should response by gradually increasing through the weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1039 AM MST Mon Dec 1 2025 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. Clearing skies continue through the late morning and early afternoon hours with breezy northwest winds (gusts 20-30kts) along a general line from KFMN to KAEG to KCQC to KSRR. Winds taper off after 00z west of the central mountain chain. Upper level westerlies increase along the ridgetops of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains after 06z, raising the potential for mountain wave activity along and east of the mountains. Concurrently, gusts across eastern NM from KCQC to KTCC begin to increase past 12z, with a good chance of 35kt gusts near KCQC. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1225 PM MST Mon Dec 1 2025 Critical fire weather conditions are not expected for the next several days. Breezy conditions are likely across eastern NM Tuesday afternoon, as well as across the mountaintops of the central mountain chain. Humidity values may drop low enough where a few locales may see extremely brief periods of critical fire weather conditions, but there is very little concern for any rapid fire spread as ERCs remain well below the 50th percentile. Snow returns to the northern mountains and some of the eastern plains Wednesday through Thursday, then breezy conditions return to end the week. Humidity values are likely to remain much too high for any rapid fire spread concern with these breezy conditions returning, and the recent rain and snow should continue to lessen concerns. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 22 44 26 42 / 0 0 0 10 Dulce........................... 10 43 16 41 / 0 0 0 50 Cuba............................ 16 43 21 40 / 0 0 0 10 Gallup.......................... 14 47 21 41 / 0 0 0 10 El Morro........................ 19 47 24 41 / 0 0 0 10 Grants.......................... 14 52 21 46 / 0 0 0 5 Quemado......................... 19 52 22 47 / 0 0 0 5 Magdalena....................... 25 54 29 50 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 22 52 24 46 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 20 58 23 53 / 0 0 0 5 Glenwood........................ 25 62 26 58 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 10 39 15 35 / 0 0 0 50 Los Alamos...................... 22 44 26 39 / 0 0 0 20 Pecos........................... 19 47 24 42 / 0 0 0 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 17 42 21 37 / 0 0 0 50 Red River....................... 12 35 15 28 / 0 0 0 60 Angel Fire...................... 2 41 9 34 / 0 0 0 40 Taos............................ 12 45 17 40 / 0 0 0 40 Mora............................ 16 50 21 38 / 0 0 0 20 Espanola........................ 18 50 20 46 / 0 0 0 20 Santa Fe........................ 23 45 26 42 / 0 0 0 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 19 46 23 44 / 0 0 0 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 29 48 32 49 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 24 50 28 51 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 22 52 26 53 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 25 51 28 50 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 19 53 23 54 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 25 52 27 50 / 0 0 0 5 Bosque Farms.................... 19 52 22 53 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 23 52 26 52 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 21 52 24 53 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 27 47 30 46 / 0 0 0 5 Rio Rancho...................... 25 51 28 50 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 25 58 29 57 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 23 45 26 44 / 0 0 0 5 Tijeras......................... 24 45 27 45 / 0 0 0 5 Edgewood........................ 20 47 24 46 / 0 0 0 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 12 50 19 48 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 19 45 24 41 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 21 49 26 49 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 22 49 26 49 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 27 53 32 54 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 26 50 34 50 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 14 50 19 32 / 0 0 0 40 Raton........................... 11 53 19 37 / 0 0 0 50 Springer........................ 12 57 20 41 / 0 0 0 30 Las Vegas....................... 17 53 23 40 / 0 0 0 10 Clayton......................... 19 56 27 38 / 0 0 0 20 Roy............................. 16 57 25 41 / 0 0 0 10 Conchas......................... 16 61 26 47 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 22 56 28 46 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 18 62 26 48 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 19 58 30 52 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 18 60 29 53 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 16 61 28 52 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 22 63 30 59 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 23 62 34 58 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 21 61 33 60 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...77 LONG TERM....77 AVIATION...77