National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDABQ
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDABQ
Product Timestamp: 2025-09-21 18:09 UTC
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694 FXUS65 KABQ 211809 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1209 PM MDT Sun Sep 21 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1119 AM MDT Sun Sep 21 2025 - Fast-moving showers and thunderstorms will move across western and central New Mexico Monday. Some of this activity may produce strong outflow winds and brief heavy rainfall. - A backdoor cold front will bring much cooler temperatures to northeast New Mexico Tuesday then to all of eastern New Mexico on Wednesday. - We have increasing forecast confidence that a Pacific system will approach from the west toward the end of the work week, bringing improved chances for showers and storms from Friday through the weekend. This scenario would lead to an increasing risk for burn scar flash flooding going into the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday night) Issued at 1119 AM MDT Sun Sep 21 2025 The upper high over northern MX is extending a ridge axis over NM today, with a dry atmosphere persisting and little to no chance for convection. The exception this afternoon will be across the southwest mountains, where sufficient moisture resides to support isolated late day showers and storms. The latest water vapor satellite imagery shows a slug of Pacific moisture transporting northeast from the Baja across AZ in between a Pacific low offshore of SoCal and the upper high over northern MX. This slug of moisture will move into western NM tonight and across the are Monday, bringing PWATs to above the 90th percentile. However, the timing of the moisture advection will create multiple cloud layers overnight and limit surface heating Monday, which will limit instability and favor showers and areas of rain vs thunderstorms. That said, we do expect some storms during the afternoon hours. There is only a low threat for burn scar flash flooding Monday given fast storm motion and limited instability. An upper level low will drop southeast from the Great Basin toward the southern Rockies late Monday and push a cold front through the area Monday night. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 1119 AM MDT Sun Sep 21 2025 The backdoor portion of the front will be reinforced Tuesday as the upper low ejects east into the southern/central US plains, bringing a notably cooler airmass into eastern NM. Highs on Tuesday will generally be 5-15 degrees cooler across eastern NM relative to Monday's. Gusty northerly winds will prevail behind the backdoor front across the northeast and east central plains on Tuesday, but speeds will remain below advisory threshold. Our low temperature forecast for Wednesday morning may not be cold enough, given winds decreasing behind the back door front and skies clearing. The upper level low will move further east away from the southern Rockies on Wednesday as a ridge builds over the Desert SW and Great Basin. Wednesday is looking like a beautiful early fall day across the area, with high temperatures generally 5-10 degrees below average across eastern NM and within a few degrees of average across western NM. A Pacific low is still forecast to approach NM late in the week, then take a jog south toward the Bootheel late in the weekend. The upper low will bring moisture north from MX beginning Friday, with PWATs continuing an upward trend into the weekend. We have increasing forecast confidence in this scenario given good agreement among the 12Z medium range model solutions and some solid run-to-run consistency. This setup will bring good chances for showers and storms to western and central NM, but with an increasing risk for burn scar flash flooding. Our PoPs will likely continue to trend up for the Friday through Sunday period given continued model run-to-run consistency. Daytime temperatures will trend down over the weekend due to cloud cover and rain-cooling of the lower boundary layer. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1119 AM MDT Sun Sep 21 2025 VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the TAF period, except for MVFR conditions in showers across western NM Monday morning. Expect the development and gradual lowering of VFR cigs overnight into Monday as a slug of Pacific moisture moves east into NM from AZ. Winds will generally be light. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1119 AM MDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through at least the next seven days. A slug of Pacific moisture will move east into NM tonight through Monday, bringing increased humidity and chances for wetting rain that will focus across central and western areas. A backdoor cold front will move down the eastern plains Tuesday and spread west into central NM Wednesday, bringing temperatures down to below average. A Pacific system will approach toward the end of the week, bringing increased humidity and improved chances for wetting rain from Friday through the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 58 74 51 78 / 20 30 10 10 Dulce........................... 42 71 38 73 / 20 30 10 10 Cuba............................ 50 70 45 74 / 20 50 10 10 Gallup.......................... 52 71 46 77 / 30 60 10 10 El Morro........................ 51 71 47 75 / 30 50 10 10 Grants.......................... 51 74 46 78 / 20 60 10 10 Quemado......................... 51 75 49 77 / 20 50 20 10 Magdalena....................... 56 78 54 77 / 10 50 20 20 Datil........................... 51 75 49 76 / 20 60 30 20 Reserve......................... 51 82 49 83 / 20 50 20 20 Glenwood........................ 56 86 55 88 / 20 40 20 20 Chama........................... 43 66 39 67 / 10 40 20 20 Los Alamos...................... 54 71 49 73 / 5 50 10 10 Pecos........................... 51 74 47 74 / 0 30 10 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 48 70 43 69 / 0 30 20 20 Red River....................... 41 61 36 59 / 5 50 20 30 Angel Fire...................... 35 67 32 65 / 0 30 10 30 Taos............................ 46 73 41 73 / 0 30 10 10 Mora............................ 46 72 42 70 / 0 30 10 20 Espanola........................ 51 77 47 79 / 5 40 10 10 Santa Fe........................ 55 74 50 75 / 0 30 10 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 52 76 48 78 / 5 30 10 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 62 77 58 80 / 5 30 20 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 59 79 56 82 / 5 30 10 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 58 79 55 84 / 10 30 10 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 59 79 55 83 / 5 30 10 10 Belen........................... 56 84 54 85 / 10 40 20 10 Bernalillo...................... 57 79 54 83 / 5 30 10 10 Bosque Farms.................... 55 82 52 84 / 10 30 10 10 Corrales........................ 59 80 54 84 / 5 30 10 10 Los Lunas....................... 56 83 54 84 / 10 30 20 10 Placitas........................ 59 77 54 79 / 5 30 10 10 Rio Rancho...................... 59 79 54 82 / 5 30 10 10 Socorro......................... 61 87 57 86 / 10 40 20 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 54 74 49 75 / 5 30 10 10 Tijeras......................... 56 76 51 77 / 5 30 20 10 Edgewood........................ 51 77 46 77 / 0 20 10 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 48 79 45 79 / 0 20 20 10 Clines Corners.................. 53 76 49 74 / 0 20 20 10 Mountainair..................... 53 78 50 78 / 0 30 20 10 Gran Quivira.................... 54 80 50 78 / 0 30 20 10 Carrizozo....................... 59 84 57 82 / 0 20 20 10 Ruidoso......................... 55 77 54 74 / 0 20 30 20 Capulin......................... 48 77 46 65 / 0 20 20 30 Raton........................... 47 79 46 70 / 0 20 20 30 Springer........................ 47 81 46 73 / 0 20 10 20 Las Vegas....................... 50 77 46 72 / 0 20 10 10 Clayton......................... 56 85 54 70 / 0 10 20 10 Roy............................. 51 82 49 73 / 0 10 10 10 Conchas......................... 54 90 56 81 / 0 10 10 10 Santa Rosa...................... 54 88 55 80 / 0 20 20 10 Tucumcari....................... 54 90 54 80 / 0 5 20 10 Clovis.......................... 60 91 61 82 / 0 5 20 10 Portales........................ 59 93 61 84 / 0 5 20 10 Fort Sumner..................... 57 91 59 83 / 0 10 20 10 Roswell......................... 61 95 64 89 / 0 5 20 10 Picacho......................... 58 88 59 83 / 0 20 20 10 Elk............................. 56 85 57 80 / 0 20 10 20 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...11