National Weather Service Raw Text Product
Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDMLB Product Timestamp: 2024-04-30 06:50 UTC
Previous in Time Latest Product Next in Time
View All KMLB Products for 30 Apr 2024 View All AFD Products for 30 Apr 2024 View As Image Download As Text
474 FXUS62 KMLB 300650 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 250 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 249 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Current...KMLB 88D shows WDLY SCT onshore-moving shower activity early this morning across the Treasure Coast. Primary concern is just some occasional downpours. At some point expect coastal counties of Brevard/Volusia to also see some ISOLD activity ahead of sunrise. This as a brief surge of moisture sneaks up the coast. ESE/SE winds around 5 mph or less over the interior/Volusia coast and 10-15 mph along the Space and Treasure coasts. The veering winds are the result of weakening high pressure over the western Atlc beginning to push further seaward. Overnight lows will again realize in the 60s areawide (highest mins along the coast). Today-Tonight...Some of the ongoing low-topped shower activity will continue thru the morning - even pushing further inland at times, though the low-level flow does weaken and veer keeping much of this activity over the coastal waters later on. Shortwave troughing aloft passing across the Gulf Coast States and northeast GoMex continues its eastward progression, with trailing axis passing across ECFL this evening proving for some instability. With some surface heating, bump upward in PWATs (1.50 inches), and sea breeze boundaries around, expect ISOLD-SCT convection to be possible later this afternoon/evening. The main sea breeze collision will occur this evening along the Kissimmee River and up thru western Orange and Lake counties. With an offshore steering flow, some of this activity could propagate back toward the coast. A lucky few today could receive some nice rainfall, but not everyone will see precip. Shower and ISOLD lightning storm activity will dissipate/push off the coast by mid/late evening, with convection late tonight continuing across the local coastal waters. Primary storm threats later today should any develop are occasional lightning strikes, locally heavy downpours, brief gusty winds, and cannot rule out some small hail as temperatures aloft are fairly cool. Morning light SERLY flow at the coast, with a degree of variability over the interior, will transition ESE in the afternoon (coast-inland) as the ECSB pushes into the interior. Speeds 6-12 mph over the interior and up to around 15 mph along the Space and Treasure coasts with higher gusts. Afternoon highs near 80F to L80s along/near the coast, with M-U80s into the interior. Overnight temps, again, remain mild and mainly in the 60s areawide. Wednesday-Thursday...A small taste of the wet season will linger into Wednesday, with the potential for another round of sea-breeze driven thunderstorms in the afternoon. Onshore flow due to the proximity of a surface high will favor the east coast sea breeze, with highest available moisture present across South FL. The resultant PoP forecast will focus highest coverage along the Kissimmee River and towards the immediate Treasure Coast at 30%, with areas north with a slight chance. The bulk of moisture will reside below 700mb, so mid level drying will aid in some convective development, with gusty winds and occasional lightning strikes. Thursday overall will see a similar setup, although PoPs retreat farther south to the southwestern side of Lake Okeechobee, removing rain chances from north of Orlando and 20% for areas south. On this first day of May, we say hello to the 90s across the interior, with coastal locations staying a few degrees below thanks to the sea breeze. Still, values areawide will be several degrees above normal, which continues for the next seven days. Lows remain in the mid to upper 60s. Friday-Tuesday...With continued influence from high pressure over the Atlantic, the easterly flow regime will remain dominant into early next week. This will allow for development of the east coast sea breeze each afternoon, along with the very low chance for showers and a few thunderstorms. Without the deep moisture typically seen in a normal wet season pattern, heavy rain and strong thunderstorms won't be likely through early next week, but the forecast does call for non-zero PoPs through Tuesday. Sunny conditions will be ample through the weekend, with highs in the 90s (mid/upper 80s at the coast) continuing. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 249 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Morning WDLY SCT shower activity along the coast bringing brief MVFR conds. This trend could continue thru the morning and focus a inland, though mostly ISOLD further into the interior. Will promote VCSH or TEMPO groups as necessary. SERLY flow at the coast and variable winds over the interior early on. The ECSB will develop later today pushing into the interior. Winds will transition to ESE behind it. Wind speeds approaching 6-12 kts over the interior/Volusia coast and up to 15 kts (and gusty) for Brevard/Treasure coasts TAF sites. A sea breeze collision later today with some increased moisture and weak troughing aloft may promote ISOLD-SCT convection over the interior late today/evening, esp N/W of KMCO. && .MARINE... Issued at 249 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Today-Tonight...ISOLD-WDLY SCT shower activity this morning, with an increase in moisture over the area. The pgrad begins to weaken again this morning, as we drop any Cautionary Statements from the previous evening and overnight with morning Coastal Waters Forecast issuance. ESE/SE winds 10-16 kts into this evening will diminish further overnight 5-11 kts by daybreak Wed morning as high pressure over the western Atlc weakens and pushes further seaward. The ECSB will develop and push inland this afternoon. There will be, again, some nocturnal convection (including ISOLD lightning storm potential) over the local waters, esp Gulf Stream. Seas 4-5 ft will very slowly subside to 3-4 ft areawide by daybreak Wed morning. Wednesday-Friday...Influence of high pressure will keep boating conditions favorable through late week. Winds will vary east to southeast each day remaining below 15 knots while seas diminish from 3-4 ft to 2-3 ft. There is a slight chance for onshore moving showers with the potential for lightning storms over the Gulf Stream waters and also near to the coast with the east coast sea breeze development. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 249 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Today...Some morning wetting rains, mainly southward and especially along the coast. The ECSB moves inland today with a late day/evening collision over the interior. A few lightning storms cannot be ruled out late today and evening before activity diminishes. As such, a localized fire start from occasional lightning strikes cannot be ruled out. Min aftn RH values fall to 40-45pct well into the interior and 45-60pct closer towards the coast. Variable winds over the interior, with SERLY nearer the coast this morning. Winds transition to ESE (up to 15 mph and gusty) behind the inland moving sea breeze this aftn. Light winds tonight. Wednesday-Saturday...Isolated lightning storms will be possible each day, mainly across the interior as the east coast sea breeze moves inland. While coverage of showers and storms will be overall low, there is the threat for burns ignited from lightning strikes with drying fuels. Min RH values will drop as low as 38% over the far interior, with areas away from the immediate coast falling to 40-43% this week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 83 66 86 67 / 20 20 20 10 MCO 86 68 90 68 / 30 20 20 10 MLB 81 67 85 68 / 20 20 20 10 VRB 83 66 86 66 / 30 30 20 20 LEE 87 67 89 68 / 20 20 20 10 SFB 87 67 90 68 / 30 20 20 10 ORL 87 69 90 69 / 30 20 20 10 FPR 83 65 86 65 / 30 30 20 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sedlock LONG TERM...Schaper AVIATION...Sedlock