400 
FXUS61 KRNK 200059
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
859 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure shifts east tonight. A cold front tracks in Friday 
through Friday night with showers. It will be breezy and turning 
cooler behind the front over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 830 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1)Showers moving into the mountains by late tonight.

2)Showers and a few thunderstorms Friday.

National Weather Service radars showed a narrow band of light
showers along a pre-frontal trough that was crossing through
West Virginia and Virginia. Models remain consistent with the 
overall synoptic pattern through Friday. Have increased in the 
probability for precipitation late tonight west of a Lewisburg 
to Boone line. No changes needed for temperatures. 


Previous discussion:
As of 134 PM EDT Thursday...

High pressure moves off to the east tonight as low pressure and its 
trail cold front approaches from the west. Clouds will increase and 
lower tonight as the 5h trough deepens across the Ohio/TN valleys. 
Scattered showers along the front may push as far east as the I-81 
corridor late tonight. Some isolated showers are possible with one 
vort moving across the mountains by midnight with main convergent 
line of showers working toward the mountains by dawn. The rich cloud 
cover tonight will hold temperatures up with low temperatures from 
the lower 40s in the colder mountain locations to around 50 degrees 
in the Piedmont. 

A cold front will move east across our region Friday into Friday 
night. Showers and a few thunderstorms will move across the 
mountains Friday morning and reach the Piedmont by Friday night. 
Showers may be slow to exit the piedmont in Friday evening as a 
surface wave forms over east-central North Carolina and tracks north 
off the Delmarva coast. Scattered showers will remain overnight in 
the west as the upper level trough pivots over the region. A cross-
barrier low level jet is also expected to develop along the Blue 
Ridge Friday night. However, abundant cloud cover should keep the 
stronger winds/gusts limited to higher elevations. Cloud cover will 
limit high temperatures Friday to readings from the upper 40s in the 
mountains to the mid 60s in the Piedmont. Low temperatures Friday 
night will range from the lower 40s in the west with clouds to 
around 50 degrees under mostly clear conditions.  

Moderate confidence in the Near Term Forecast Period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 134 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1. Breezy and gusty winds Saturday through Sunday morning.
2. Cooler temperatures for the weekend.

The axis upper trough will be to the east of the Mid Atlantic by 
Saturday, as will the associated surface cold front. A shortwave 
will pass through this trough on Saturday, which will lead to some 
rain showers west of the Blue Ridge, with the greatest chances and 
coverage over southeast West Virginia. This shower activity will 
diminish by Sunday morning. 

Cold air advection and strong pressure rises will lead to gusty 
winds through Saturday and overnight into Sunday morning. The 
strongest gusts will be over the southern Blue Ridge, with gusts up 
to 35 to 40 mph possible in that area. Other areas along and west of 
the Blue Ridge may see gusts up to 30 mph. Winds will decrease by 
Sunday afternoon/evening as surface high pressure starts to build 
into the region. 

Cooler air moves in behind the frontal system on Sunday, so 
temperatures will be cooler on Sunday than on Saturday. Highs for 
Saturday will be in the upper 50s in the west and upper 60s in the 
east, with lows in the low to mid 40s areawide. For Sunday, high 
temperatures will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s in the west, and 
low 60s in the east. However, Sunday night will see lows in the lo 
30s in the west and upper 30s in the east.

Forecast confidence is average to high.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 134 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1. Cooler to start the week, temperatures warm towards the end of 
the week.
2. Dry weather expected for most of the period.

The beginning of the work week will be cool, but quiet. Upper 
ridging will strengthen over the southeastern US, and expand to over 
the Mid Atlantic for much of this forecast period. The colder air 
following the frontal passage on Saturday will persist through 
Monday night. As the surface high becomes more established over the 
region, clearer skies are expected. Overnight lows near freezing, 
especially west of the mountains, and clear skies will increase the 
potential for the development of patchy frost Monday morning. An 
increase in southerly to southwesterly flow through the rest of the 
week will help temperatures increase back towards seasonal norms by 
the end of the week. 

High temperatures will start in the upper 50s to low 60s, then 
increase to mid 60s to low 70s by the end of the forecast period. 
Lows will be in the low 30s to start the week, but increase to mid 
40s.

Forecast confidence is high.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 850 PM EDT Thursday...

National Weather Service radars showed a narrow band of light
showers along a pre-frontal trough that was crossing through
West Virginia and Virginia. Models remain consistent with
overall synoptic pattern Friday and Friday night. Have 
increased in the probability for precipitation late tonight west
of a KLWB to KTNB line. Showers ahead of the front should 
reach KLWB/KBLF around 09Z/5AM. MVFR showers and few mainly 
afternoon thunderstorms will spread east Friday reaching
KLYH/KDAN by 15Z/11AM. A majority of the rain will be east of
the area by 00Z/8PM. 

South to southwest wind ahead of the front will turn to the west
then northwest behind the front after 18Z/2PM from west to east. 

Average confidence for ceiling, visibility, and wind. 

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... 

Cigs will lower behind the front Friday night. Sub-VFR clouds 
will clear in the western mountains Saturday then fill return on
Saturday night into Sunday in response to another short wave 
that will enhance upslope northwest low level wind. Downslope 
clearing occurs in the east Friday night. 

Gusty wind is expected, especially at higher elevations Friday
night through Saturday night. 

Dry weather and VFR flight conditions are expected Monday into 
Wednesday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/WP
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...AMS/KK