National Weather Service Raw Text Product

000 
FXUS64 KLIX 210915
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
415 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...
Conditions are expected to remain relatively similar today with a
very slow improvement in condtions for some. Average rainfall 
amounts are showing up from 3 to 5 inches over the past 24 hours. 
An additional 3 to 6 inches will remain a possibility through 
Thursday. This accumulation gradient may set up in our area from 
lower west to higher east. The reason for this is a dry air surge 
moving into the south and east side of Cindy. This dry intrusion 
looks like it could make its way onshore of extreme southeast LA 
by mid to late this afternoon. This is what current model trends 
are using to show less rainfall accumulations along the river 
parishes starting later today through Thursday. This is shown as a
small area of rainfall between two large areas of heavy rain, one
being over the Lake Charles area and the other over southern 
Mississippi. All it will take is a slight shift east or west in 
this lower precip area and problems would also exist for the river
parishes since it is relatively small. Will continue the river 
parishes in the flood watch for now, with a close eye on trends 
for that area. If the river parishes can manage to fall within 
this relatively drier area, the flood watch could possibly be 
rolled back for those locations.

Winds have been strong and just right in orientation to push a lot
of water to the south and southwest portion of Lake 
Pontchartrain. Wind and tide levels should begin to level off 
today and then VERY slowly improve. Water levels will move through
the normal cyclical motion of the daily tidal regime bringing 
water back to areas during times at and flanking high tides each 
day. Once tropical storm warnings are lowered, coastal flood 
advisories may have to take their place as we may see minor 
coastal flooding during high tides through Friday. Still have a 
ways to go before seeing this amount of improvement. Several areas
are experiencing anywhere from 2 to 3 feet of inundation outside 
of hurricane protection levees. At these levels, many of the 
lowest lying roadways especially near and along coastal locations,
have water over them to depths of 2 or even 3 feet. This water 
will be very slow to recede over the next 36 hours. Most roadways 
should be accessible by Friday.

Well developed shear profiles are now beginning to show up in
radar velocity images. This brings along another set of
issues...tornadoes. This could become more of an issue as the
morning progresses. This should be especially valid with any
heating that could occur. Thunderstorms are a good sign that
strong lift is occurring and some of those cells would be capable
of producing a tornado. BUT, a thunderstorm is not necessary in
these environments to produce tornadoes.

.LONG TERM...
As the remnants of Cindy gets picked up by a synoptic trough 
moving through the country Thursday night into Friday, it should
be capable of forcing a surface trough southward into the area by
Sunday or Sunday night before becoming stationary while 
weakening. This will provide a continued focus for sh/ts to form 
daily along and south of the boundary into the middle of next 
week.

&&

.AVIATION...

Strong southeast winds associated with Tropical Storm Cindy gusting 
over 30 and even 40 knots at times will persist through the day. The 
winds should ease after 00z as the tropical system makes landfall in 
extreme Southwest Louisiana, but winds should remain in excess of 12 
knots through the entire forecast period.  Prevailing MVFR 
visibilities of around 3 miles and ceilings of 1000 to 2500 feet can 
also be expected through the entire forecast period.  32

&&

.MARINE...

No significant changes in thinking as Tropical Storm Cindy continues 
to produce very rough seas and strong winds over the coastal waters. 
Even after Cindy makes landfall tonight in far Southwest Louisiana, 
a tight pressure gradient over the Gulf will keep southerly winds 
elevated at 20 to 30 knots in the Gulf from tonight through Friday 
morning.  Seas will gradually decrease through Friday winds decrease 
over the period.  By Friday night, winds should decrease to around 
15 knots as the tropical low weakens further and the pressure 
gradient eases over the northern Gulf.  A return to more a more 
typical Summer pattern is expected for the upcoming weekend with 
light southeast flow of around 10 knots and seas of less than 3 
feet. 32

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT... 
DSS CODE...Orange.
DEPLOYED...None. 
ACTIVATION...None. 
ACTIVITIES...Tropical Storm Cindy. 
      
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH       
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR AND/OR 
         DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  79  74  83  76 / 100  90  60  40 
BTR  80  75  84  77 / 100  90  70  50 
ASD  80  78  83  77 / 100  90  70  60 
MSY  81  78  84  78 / 100  90  70  60 
GPT  80  79  82  79 / 100  90  80  70 
PQL  79  78  82  78 / 100  90  80  70 

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Tropical Storm Warning for LAZ040-056-058>070-072. 

     Flash Flood Watch through Thursday evening for LAZ034>037-039-
     040-046>050-056>072.

GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-
     557-570-572-575-577. 

MS...Tropical Storm Warning for MSZ080>082. 

     Flash Flood Watch through Thursday evening for MSZ068>071-077-
     080>082.

GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-
     570-572-575-577. 

&&

$$