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Displaying AFOS PIL: SWOMCD Product Timestamp: 2003-05-10 05:49 UTC
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202 ACUS11 KWNS 100549 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100549 KSZ000-100715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0897 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1249 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL INTO NERN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 100549Z - 100715Z LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED. REGIONAL RADAR DATA INDICATE TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER S-CNTRL KS FROM N OF P28 TO JUST N OF HUT. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE LOW OVER THE CNTRL OK PNHDL/FAR SWRN KS WITH AN ATTENDANT WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS EWD ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER S OF ICT AND THEN NEWD TO JUST N OF CNU. PROFILER/VWP NETWORK IS INDICATING A 50-60KT SLY LLJ FROM N-CNTRL TX ACROSS OK WITH ELY 850MB WINDS NOTED AT DDC AND HILLSBORO KS. THEREFORE...IT APPEARS THAT STRONG MOIST/THERMAL ADVECTION OVER SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ALONG DEEPER FRONTAL ZONE OVER SRN KS WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL TSTMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS CNTRL KS OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THESE PROCESSES ARE LEADING TO RAPID DESTABILIZATION FROM SRN KS NEWD INTO NERN KS WITH MUCAPES EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 2000-2500 J/KG ABOVE SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH 08Z. SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR THROUGH THIS ELEVATED BUOYANT LAYER SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED SOON W OF WW0329. ..MEAD.. 05/10/2003 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...DDC... 37119881 37989866 38759805 39309764 39809684 39919591 39759521 39279523 38169611 37119687 37039765