202 
ACUS11 KWNS 100549
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100549 
KSZ000-100715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0897
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1249 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL INTO NERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 100549Z - 100715Z

LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.

REGIONAL RADAR DATA INDICATE TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER S-CNTRL KS FROM N
OF P28 TO JUST N OF HUT. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE LOW OVER
THE CNTRL OK PNHDL/FAR SWRN KS WITH AN ATTENDANT WARM FRONT THAT
EXTENDS EWD ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER S OF ICT AND THEN NEWD TO JUST N
OF CNU. PROFILER/VWP NETWORK IS INDICATING A 50-60KT SLY LLJ FROM
N-CNTRL TX ACROSS OK WITH ELY 850MB WINDS NOTED AT DDC AND HILLSBORO
KS. THEREFORE...IT APPEARS THAT STRONG MOIST/THERMAL ADVECTION OVER
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ALONG DEEPER
FRONTAL ZONE OVER SRN KS WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL TSTMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS CNTRL KS OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS.

RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THESE PROCESSES ARE LEADING TO
RAPID DESTABILIZATION FROM SRN KS NEWD INTO NERN KS WITH MUCAPES
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 2000-2500 J/KG ABOVE SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER
THROUGH 08Z. SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR THROUGH THIS ELEVATED
BUOYANT LAYER SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL.

A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED SOON W OF WW0329.

..MEAD.. 05/10/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...DDC...

37119881 37989866 38759805 39309764 39809684 39919591
39759521 39279523 38169611 37119687 37039765