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Displaying AFOS PIL: SWOMCD Product Timestamp: 2003-05-07 06:16 UTC
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989 ACUS11 KWNS 070616 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070616 GAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-070915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0811 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0116 AM CDT WED MAY 07 2003 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN GA....ERN TN...CENTRAL KY...FAR SWRN NC CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 070616Z - 070915Z ERN PORTION OF LARGE MCS...CONTAINING RAINFALL RATES COMMONLY 2-3 INCHES/HOUR...WILL CROSS DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 9Z. LOCAL RAIN RATES TO NEAR 4 INCHES/HOUR ARE POSSIBLE. HAZARD WILL INCLUDE STEEP/RUGGED TERRAIN OF SERN TN AND SWRN NC...BUT UNUSUAL AND SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAIN THREAT IS UNFOLDING FROM MID TN INTO CENTRAL KY. UPSTREAM AND REGIONAL VWP/PROFILER DATA SHOWS 35-40 KT SWLY LLJ WITH VERY RICH MOISTURE BASED ON MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS. PW AROUND 1.75-2 INCHES IS QUITE COMMON FROM WRN GA NWWD ACROSS TN...WITH MEAN MIXING RATIOS IN 16-18 G/KG RANGE...AND ELEVATED MUCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG. THIS WILL SUPPORT VERY VIGOROUS UPDRAFT GENERATION AND EFFICIENT PRECIP PRODUCTION IN NW-SE ORIENTED BELT WHERE INFLOW AIR IS ISENTROPICALLY RAISED TO LFC. MERGING AND TRAINING OF CELLS WILL OCCUR AS WELL -- PARTICULARLY OVER CENTRAL KY AND PORTIONS NRN/WRN TN AS CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS BLEND TOGETHER. REF WW 280 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER NRN/WRN PORTIONS OF THIS AREA. ..EDWARDS.. 05/07/2003 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG... 35398596 35378885 36218811 37208673 38348628 37168402 34308354