989 
ACUS11 KWNS 070616
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070616 
GAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-070915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0811
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0116 AM CDT WED MAY 07 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN GA....ERN TN...CENTRAL KY...FAR SWRN
NC

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 070616Z - 070915Z

ERN PORTION OF LARGE MCS...CONTAINING RAINFALL RATES COMMONLY 2-3
INCHES/HOUR...WILL CROSS DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 9Z.  LOCAL
RAIN RATES TO NEAR 4 INCHES/HOUR ARE POSSIBLE.	HAZARD WILL INCLUDE
STEEP/RUGGED TERRAIN OF SERN TN AND SWRN NC...BUT UNUSUAL AND
SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAIN THREAT IS UNFOLDING FROM MID TN INTO CENTRAL
KY.

UPSTREAM AND REGIONAL VWP/PROFILER DATA SHOWS 35-40 KT SWLY LLJ WITH
VERY RICH MOISTURE BASED ON MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS. 
PW AROUND 1.75-2 INCHES IS QUITE COMMON FROM WRN GA NWWD ACROSS
TN...WITH MEAN MIXING RATIOS IN 16-18 G/KG RANGE...AND ELEVATED
MUCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG.	THIS WILL SUPPORT VERY VIGOROUS UPDRAFT
GENERATION AND EFFICIENT PRECIP PRODUCTION IN NW-SE ORIENTED BELT
WHERE INFLOW AIR IS ISENTROPICALLY RAISED TO LFC.  MERGING AND
TRAINING OF CELLS WILL OCCUR AS WELL -- PARTICULARLY OVER CENTRAL KY
AND PORTIONS NRN/WRN TN AS CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS BLEND TOGETHER.	

REF WW 280 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL
OVER NRN/WRN PORTIONS OF THIS AREA.  

..EDWARDS.. 05/07/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

35398596 35378885 36218811 37208673 38348628 37168402
34308354