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Displaying AFOS PIL: SWOMCD Product Timestamp: 2003-05-03 17:48 UTC
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337 ACUS11 KWNS 031749 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031748 NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-032015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0706 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1248 PM CDT SAT MAY 03 2003 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY...SWRN SD...NERN CO...AND THE NEB PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 031748Z - 032015Z THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION DURING THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS ERN WY. THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS MAY REQUIRE WW IN THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AT 1730Z SUGGESTS A REGION OF UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE SPREADING NEWD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TOWARD THE DISCUSSION AREA. ASSOCIATED SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ON THE ORDER OF 2-3 MB/2 HR CONTINUE ACROSS ERN CO...ERN WY...AND THE NEB PANHANDLE. RAPID CLEARING OCCURRED LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS NERN CO...ERN WY...THE NEB PANHANDLE SETTING THE STAGE FOR DESTABILIZATION AND STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE MTNS OF CENTRAL WY. AS FORCING FOR ASCENT EMERGES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AREA THIS AFTERNOON...IN CONJUNCTION WITH CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING...ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM NERN WY SWD INTO NERN CO. IF PRESSURE FALLS CAN REMAIN FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...A SSELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 50S/ INTO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR 100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND AN ASSOCIATED THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR /SFC-6KM/ AROUND 40KT SHOULD INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING STORMS. HAIL AND ISOLATED/LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. HOWEVER...WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS BACKED THIS AFTERNOON...TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. ..BANACOS.. 05/03/2003 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...BYZ...RIW... 40050205 39410211 39430275 39700324 40310367 41360436 43300561 43930607 44870672 44750517 44520320 42660229 41070205