337 
ACUS11 KWNS 031749
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031748 
NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-032015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0706
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 PM CDT SAT MAY 03 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY...SWRN SD...NERN CO...AND THE NEB PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 031748Z - 032015Z

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS REGION DURING THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS ERN
WY. THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS MAY REQUIRE
WW IN THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AT 1730Z SUGGESTS A REGION OF UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE SPREADING NEWD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TOWARD THE
DISCUSSION AREA. ASSOCIATED SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ON THE ORDER OF
2-3 MB/2 HR CONTINUE ACROSS ERN CO...ERN WY...AND THE NEB PANHANDLE.
RAPID CLEARING OCCURRED LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS NERN CO...ERN
WY...THE NEB PANHANDLE SETTING THE STAGE FOR DESTABILIZATION AND
STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
VISIBLE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE MTNS OF CENTRAL WY.

AS FORCING FOR ASCENT EMERGES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...IN CONJUNCTION WITH CONTINUED SURFACE
HEATING...ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM NERN WY
SWD INTO NERN CO. IF PRESSURE FALLS CAN REMAIN FOCUSED ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE...A SSELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 50S/ INTO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR
100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND AN ASSOCIATED THREAT OF
SEVERE STORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR /SFC-6KM/ AROUND 40KT SHOULD
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING
STORMS. HAIL AND ISOLATED/LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT. HOWEVER...WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS BACKED THIS
AFTERNOON...TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

..BANACOS.. 05/03/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

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