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Displaying AFOS PIL: SWODY2 Product Timestamp: 2002-04-26 07:46 UTC
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000 ACUS02 KWNS 260746 SWODY2 SPC AC 260741 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWNS. VALID 271200Z - 281200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR MUCH OF MO AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF IL...WRN KY...WRN TN..AND NRN AR TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S PAH 15 ESE JBR 30 S HRO 20 SE JLN 10 ESE OJC 25 ENE STJ 35 ENE P35 35 WSW PIA DEC 25 WSW EVV 40 S PAH. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE TXK 45 SW PRX 40 WSW MLC 15 NNW BVO 30 E SLN CNK 40 W LNK 15 NNE MLI 40 SSE AZO 40 WSW FDY 50 WNW HTS 25 ENE MSL 30 S GLH 35 SSE TXK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW SYR 30 SW DCA 25 SE GSO 20 ENE LGC LUL 15 NNW POE 10 SE TPL 35 W SEP 10 NE CSM 25 SW DDC 45 SSW GLD 10 ESE DEN 55 W MLF 45 ESE U31 70 SW BOI 45 W MQM 30 WNW PHP FSD 15 ESE AUW 15 ESE ANJ. ...SYNOPSIS... 00Z ETA/AVN ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MID MS/OH VALLEYS THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW JUST W OF SRN CA EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES BY THIS EVENING...AND EMERGE OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ENEWD FROM THE KS AREA TO LOWER MI BY THE END OF PERIOD... WHILE AN ASSOCIATED DEEP SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM THE N CENTRAL KS AREA TO ROUGHLY CHICAGO BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ...MO AREA... THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE PERIOD ACROSS OK/KS/MO AREAS IN ADVANCE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG WAA ON THE NOSE OF A 50-60 KT LLJ. RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /DEW POINTS NEAR 70 F/ IS CURRENTLY CONFINED TO S TX AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THIS MOISTURE WILL SPREAD N/NEWD TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO BY TOMORROW IS FOR THE LOW-LEVELS TO DESTABILIZE NEWD FROM TX/OK/KS ACROSS AR/MO DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE WAA THUNDERSTORMS AND BENEATH THE DEVELOPING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT. DESTABILIZATION WILL CONTINUE NEWD OVERNIGHT...WITH NEAR SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY POSSIBLE AS FAR NE AS WRN OH. MEANWHILE...DEEP LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE QUITE STRONG WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH ESTIMATED 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 60- 70 KT AND 0-3 KM SRH VALUES OF 300-500 M2/S2. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE SBCAPE VALUES /EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM ABOUT 1000-1500 J/KG/ AND THIS STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL. THE THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EVENTS WILL DEPEND ON THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION...WHICH MAY NOT BECOME CLEAR UNTIL THE LATER DAY 1 UPDATES. ..THOMPSON.. 04/26/02
531 ACUS02 KWNS 260746 SWODY2 SPC AC 260741 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWNS. VALID 271200Z - 281200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR MUCH OF MO AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF IL...WRN KY...WRN TN..AND NRN AR TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S PAH 15 ESE JBR 30 S HRO 20 SE JLN 10 ESE OJC 25 ENE STJ 35 ENE P35 35 WSW PIA DEC 25 WSW EVV 40 S PAH. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE TXK 45 SW PRX 40 WSW MLC 15 NNW BVO 30 E SLN CNK 40 W LNK 15 NNE MLI 40 SSE AZO 40 WSW FDY 50 WNW HTS 25 ENE MSL 30 S GLH 35 SSE TXK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW SYR 30 SW DCA 25 SE GSO 20 ENE LGC LUL 15 NNW POE 10 SE TPL 35 W SEP 10 NE CSM 25 SW DDC 45 SSW GLD 10 ESE DEN 55 W MLF 45 ESE U31 70 SW BOI 45 W MQM 30 WNW PHP FSD 15 ESE AUW 15 ESE ANJ. ...SYNOPSIS... 00Z ETA/AVN ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MID MS/OH VALLEYS THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW JUST W OF SRN CA EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES BY THIS EVENING...AND EMERGE OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ENEWD FROM THE KS AREA TO LOWER MI BY THE END OF PERIOD... WHILE AN ASSOCIATED DEEP SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM THE N CENTRAL KS AREA TO ROUGHLY CHICAGO BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ...MO AREA... THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE PERIOD ACROSS OK/KS/MO AREAS IN ADVANCE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG WAA ON THE NOSE OF A 50-60 KT LLJ. RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /DEW POINTS NEAR 70 F/ IS CURRENTLY CONFINED TO S TX AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THIS MOISTURE WILL SPREAD N/NEWD TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO BY TOMORROW IS FOR THE LOW-LEVELS TO DESTABILIZE NEWD FROM TX/OK/KS ACROSS AR/MO DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE WAA THUNDERSTORMS AND BENEATH THE DEVELOPING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT. DESTABILIZATION WILL CONTINUE NEWD OVERNIGHT...WITH NEAR SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY POSSIBLE AS FAR NE AS WRN OH. MEANWHILE...DEEP LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE QUITE STRONG WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH ESTIMATED 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 60- 70 KT AND 0-3 KM SRH VALUES OF 300-500 M2/S2. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE SBCAPE VALUES /EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM ABOUT 1000-1500 J/KG/ AND THIS STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL. THE THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EVENTS WILL DEPEND ON THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION...WHICH MAY NOT BECOME CLEAR UNTIL THE LATER DAY 1 UPDATES. ..THOMPSON.. 04/26/02