National Weather Service Raw Text Product
Displaying AFOS PIL: SWODY1 Received: 1998-02-22 14:46 UTC
Previous in Time Latest Product Next in Time
View All KWNS Products for 22 Feb 1998 View All SWO Products for 22 Feb 1998 View As Image Download As Text
780 ACUS1 KMKC 221446 SWODY1 MKC AC 221446 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AFOS NMCGPH94O. VALID 221500Z - 231200Z REF WW NUMBER 0055...VALID TIL 1900Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FL TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE TLH 15 NE JAX ...CONT... 15 N MLB 15 S PIE. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW CEW 40 SSE MCN 20 E CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 7R4 15 E SHV 35 SSE UOX GSP GSO RIC WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BLI SLE 25 SW MFR 50 NW UKI. ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION... STRONG UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION CURRENTLY OVER SW LA WILL MOVE NEWD TODAY AND TONIGHT...REACHING THE CAROLINAS BY 12Z MONDAY. VERY PRONOUNCED BOW ECHO HAS MOVED WELL AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM AND IS NOW LOCATED OVER THE FL PANHANDLE. THE MOVEMENT OF THIS MCS WAS NOT HANDLED WELL BY ANY OF THE 00 UTC MODELS AND AS A CONSEQUENCE THE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FORECASTS ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE ACCURATE. WITH THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE CONVECTION...THE AIRMASS ACROSS S GA AND PARTS OF NW FL WILL NOT HAVE TIME TO RECOVER. FURTHER...THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL MAINTAIN A COOL AND STABLE NELY FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MUCH OF GA. THUS...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL/N CENTRAL FL. WARM FRONT IS ADVANCING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PENINSULA ALLOWING FOR AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION. SINCE IT WILL BE SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE THE CONVECTION IN THE GULF REACHES THE FL WEST COAST...THERE WILL BE TIME FOR SOME DIURNAL HEATING AS WELL. SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED LEWPS AND BOWS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE PENINSULA LATER TODAY. IF SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINE AS WELL. WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. ..VESCIO.. 02/22/98 ...GENERAL THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION... WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL IS BEGINNNING TO MOVE ONSHORE INTO THE PACIFIC NW. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ONSHORE FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE COAST. ..VESCIO.. 02/22/98