National Weather Service Raw Text Product
Displaying AFOS PIL: TCDEP1 Product Timestamp: 1997-09-16 15:00 UTC
Previous in Time Latest Product Next in Time
View All KNHC Products for 16 Sep 1997 View All TCD Products for 16 Sep 1997 View As Image Download As Text
986 WTPZ41 KNHC 161444 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 1997 THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS BEING UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS OVER WARM WATER AND THE UPPER- LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BECOMING WELL ESTABLISHED. THEREFORE...CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...IN AGREEMENT WITH SHIFOR AND SHIPS GUIDANCE. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL LOCATION AND SOME ADJUSTMENT MAY BE NEEDED ON THE NEXT ADVISORY. BEST GUESS AT INITIAL MOTION IS 320/08. THE MID LEVEL HIGH CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND TEXAS IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD...WHILE A DEEP LAYER MEAN TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OFF THE U.S. WEST COAST. THE FUTURE TRACK OF THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE TROUGH EXTENDS. OUR TRACK CONTINUES THE NORTH- NORTHWEST MOTION WHICH MEANS THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD BE A LANDFALL THREAT FOR MEXICO. THE MRF AND NOGAPS SUGGEST A TRACK TOWARD MANZANILLO. MAYFIELD FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/1500Z 12.8N 102.0W 30 KTS 12HR VT 17/0000Z 13.7N 102.8W 35 KTS 24HR VT 17/1200Z 14.8N 103.9W 45 KTS 36HR VT 18/0000Z 16.2N 104.7W 55 KTS 48HR VT 18/1200Z 17.5N 105.5W 60 KTS 72HR VT 19/1200Z 20.0N 106.5W 65 KTS