986 
WTPZ41 KNHC 161444
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 1997
 
THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
AND IS BEING UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS.  THE SYSTEM IS OVER WARM WATER AND THE UPPER-
LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BECOMING WELL ESTABLISHED.  THEREFORE...CONTINUED
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...IN AGREEMENT WITH SHIFOR AND SHIPS
GUIDANCE.

THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL LOCATION AND SOME
ADJUSTMENT MAY BE NEEDED ON THE NEXT ADVISORY.  BEST GUESS AT
INITIAL MOTION IS 320/08.  THE MID LEVEL HIGH CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO AND TEXAS IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD...WHILE A
DEEP LAYER MEAN TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OFF THE U.S. WEST
COAST.  THE FUTURE TRACK OF THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL DEPEND ON HOW
FAR SOUTH THE TROUGH EXTENDS.  OUR TRACK CONTINUES THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST MOTION WHICH MEANS THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD BE A LANDFALL
THREAT FOR MEXICO.  THE MRF AND NOGAPS SUGGEST A TRACK TOWARD
MANZANILLO. 
  
MAYFIELD
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     16/1500Z 12.8N 102.0W    30 KTS
12HR VT     17/0000Z 13.7N 102.8W    35 KTS
24HR VT     17/1200Z 14.8N 103.9W    45 KTS
36HR VT     18/0000Z 16.2N 104.7W    55 KTS
48HR VT     18/1200Z 17.5N 105.5W    60 KTS
72HR VT     19/1200Z 20.0N 106.5W    65 KTS