National Weather Service Raw Text Product

239 
FXUS66 KMFR 130546
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
1046 PM PDT Thu Jun 12 2025

...Updated AVIATION discussion for 06Z TAFs...

.DISCUSSION...A update to the forecast was needed to include the
mention of isolated showers near the Medicine Lake region and
across northern Klamath County this evening. Moisture and
instability were sufficient enough to kick off a few showers in
these areas and even a few lightning strikes up near Chemult. An
approaching weak trough will bring a decent marine push into the
region tonight, so expect some stratus to return to coastal areas
and filter into portions of the Umpqua Basin by early Friday 
morning. This stratus could be deep enough to spill over the 
Rogue-Umpqua Divide and we could see some clouds banking up 
against the Siskiyous here in the Rogue Valley by Friday morning.
Overall, low-impact weather is expected for the next few days, and
more details can be found in the previous discussion below. /BR-y

&&

.AVIATION...13/06Z TAFs...Gusty winds continue along the Oregon 
coast but have eased inland. VFR levels continue over area 
terminals, with high clouds passing over the area. A marine push is 
expected to bring MVFR ceilings to the Oregon coast later this 
evening, with chances of MVFR ceilings filling the Umpqua Valley as 
well. Any ceilings that develop overnight are expected to clear out 
before Friday afternoon. Other inland areas will remain at VFR 
through the TAF period, with gusty winds possibly returning to area 
terminals on Friday afternoon. -TAD

&&

.MARINE...Updated 830 PM Thursday, June 12, 2025...High pressure 
offshore and low pressure inland are expected to persist into the 
weekend. Seas will remain dominated by a mix of northerly wind wave 
and fresh swell through the weekend, hovering at or just below 
advisory criteria with one exception. The strongest winds and 
steepest seas are expected south of Gold Beach and out 30 nm from 
shore, especially during Friday afternoon and evening when very 
steep seas are forecast. A weak front early on Monday is likely to 
disrupt the pattern and bring improved conditions. -DW/Hermansen

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 506 PM PDT Thu Jun 12 2025/ 

DISCUSSION (Today through Wednesday)...

Overview:

The most noteworthy item of interest is the addition to some low-end 
rainfall chances (10%-20%) Friday afternoon. These may need to be 
refined and possibly removed due to outliers have more weight 
towards these chances. However, its a low chance scenario and felt 
these could be left in for now. Otherwise, the vast majority of the 
forecast will remain dry through early next week outside of some 
coastal rainfall/drizzle chances (10%-30%). The real story going 
through early next week is the prolonged dry stretch of weather 
where we will likely see further curing of fuels across the area. 

Further Details:

For Friday afternoon, we do have a weak upper level disturbance 
passing over the area which will likely be coupled with hitting 
convective temperatures in the afternoon. The moisture is the 
biggest lacking variable, and the biggest player weighted towards 
these rainfall chances appears to be the NAM Nest, which typical has 
a wet bias and will overdo PoPs. The HRRR is essentially dry, and 
this does create some concern because the HRRR typically outperforms 
the NAM Nest with convection/PoPs. That being said, its only a 10-20 
percent chance and mathematically would be correct given the 
scenario. Just wanted to bring attention to these PoPs being added 
and the chance of them being overdone. At least the NBM did not 
introduce thunder at this time which might be the correct outcome. 
In fact, tomorrow afternoon may just be a day with towering cumulus 
and no rainfall actually hitting the ground. We have another day to 
examine, but the idea here is these PoPs were left in for now even 
though this may be an outlier weighted function of the NBM.  

Otherwise, we are going to likely see further curing of fuels across 
the landscape through the next several days as rainfall will be 
essentially non-existent for much of our area. Some early 
indications are pointing to a deepening trough next weekend (~June 
20-21) which would likely bring thunderstorms to the PacNW. Whether 
or not this impacts our forecast area is not clear at this point, 
but given this stretch of dry weather followed by thunderstorm 
chances, we may be looking at the first real chances at wildfire 
threats across the area and perhaps the first Red Flags of the 
season. However, this is next weekend and a lot can change, but 
given the mostly quiet forecast, it was worth diving into further to 
find potential impacts.

-Guerrero

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Sunday 
     for PZZ350-356-370-376. 

Hazardous Seas Warning from 2 PM Friday to 2 AM PDT Saturday for 
     PZZ356-376. 

&&

$$