National Weather Service Raw Text Product

076 
FXUS63 KFSD 200850
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
250 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low (<30%) chance of patchy fog through daybreak.

- Above normal temperatures continue, perhaps rising even 
 further into early next week. 

- Precipitation chances remain minimal with the main chance of 
  a sprinkle/very light precipitation late Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2024

Aside from a bit of cirrus to our west, latest observations reveal 
mostly clear skies across the region, with light winds and 
temperatures in the 20s. Have noted some patchy fog develop just 
north of Brookings in the last hour, which may continue to spread 
southward as we approach daybreak. Similar to the last forecast 
package, HREF guidance only shows around a 30% chance of seeing 
impactful fog across our area, mainly along and north of I-90. Thus, 
believe patchy wording remains sufficient through sunrise.

Upper level ridging then looks to build across the central CONUS 
today, allowing quiet conditions and above normal temperatures to 
continue. While southerly winds are forecast to remain relatively 
light, have continued the trend of nudging highs toward the upper 
half of guidance. As such, look for temperatures in the upper 40s to 
50s to prevail today, with more widespread 50s expected by 
Wednesday. Heading into Wednesday evening, models show a decent push 
of mid-level CAA overspreading the region - with perhaps enough 
overlap of overrunning vort lob and mid-level front to allow for 
some very light precipitation. 

Otherwise, look for upper level flow to turn northwesterly for the 
remainder of the extended period, bring cooler - yet still above 
normal, temperatures back to the region. Currently have highs in the 
40s Thursday dipping back into the mid to upper 30s across portions 
of SW Minnesota by Friday. Fortunately, this "cool down" looks to be 
short lived, as temperatures rebound back into the 50s to lower 60s 
over the weekend. More widespread 60s look possible by Monday, with 
perhaps a few locations along and south of Hwy-20 taking a shot at 
70 degrees! Precipitation chances through this period look to remain 
minimal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1038 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2024

VFR conditions are expected for the period. Mid-to-high level clouds 
are flowing in from the west, and will continue overnight. These 
should not bring any impacts. Northwesterly winds have dropped of 
and become light and variable. Patchy fog is possible after 20.06Z 
due to radiational cooling. Area most at risk for fog is north of I-
90, due to available surface moisture from melting snow. Confidence 
in impacts for any TAF sites is low, as guidance continues to keep 
probability around 35%. As such, have left fog mention out for
now.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SST
AVIATION...BP