National Weather Service Raw Text Product

835 
FXUS63 KDVN 231004
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
404 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

987 MB WAS LOCATED JUST S/E OF DODGE CITY KS (DDC) AT 2 AM.
STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW AND STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION IS HELPING TO DRAW ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MOISTURE 
NORTHWARD. SFC DEW POINTS HAVE SURGED INTO THE 50S OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN IL... WITH WIDESPREAD 60S TO LOWER 70S FROM THE TX
GULF COAST TO THE TN VLY. ALOFT... POTENT JET STREAM DIVING
FROM PAC NW THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN WITH STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE
IN LEFT EXIT REGION BEGINNING TO LIFT NEWD FROM THE TX/OK PNHDLS.
THESE INGREDIENTS WILL COME TOGETHER FOR SEVERE WX OUTBREAK
LATER TODAY MAINLY TO OUR S/E FROM PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VLY TO
THE MID SOUTH REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

VERY DYNAMIC NEXT 24 HRS WITH A VARIETY OF WEATHER AS SOUTHERN
PLAINS SHORTWAVE LIFTS RAPIDLY NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 
BY END OF TONIGHT... WITH SFC LOW DEEPENING TO NEAR 984 MB 
PASSING IN/NEAR WESTERN CWA BY MID AFTERNOON THEN TO NORTHERN WI
THIS EVE AT NEAR 980 MB. CONTINUED STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH LARGE SCALE UVV
ATTENDANT TO APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL FOSTER CONTINUED UPSCALE
GROWTH IN COVERAGE OF RAIN/SHOWERS THIS AM FROM SOUTHWEST TO 
NORTHEAST WITH DECENT LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT SOME
ISOLD THUNDER POTENTIAL MAINLY S/E OF QUAD CITIES THROUGH 18Z. 
WARM ADVECTION PROCESSES SHIFT N/E MIDDAY-EARLY PM AHEAD OF 
APPROACHING DRY SLOT... WHICH WHILE NOT COMPLETELY DRY STILL
SHOULD OFFER A PERIOD OF LOWER COVERAGE DURING THE EARLY PM BEFORE
AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF SFC LOW AND COLD
FRONT FROM MID PM TO VERY EARLY EVE. IT IS WITH THIS LIKELY
BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG THIS INTERFACE THAT WILL SEE 
CONDITIONAL RISK FOR A FEW STRONG TO ISOLD SEVERE STORMS. SPC HAS
EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK TO INCLUDE FAR EASTERN IA AND ALL OF
NORTHERN AND WESTERN IL. VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXISTS WITH
LOW CAPE... BUT CERTAINLY SUFFICIENT ESPECIALLY FOR DECEMBER WITH
SBCAPES SHOWN TO BE 100-500+ J/KG... WITH SOME HI-RES MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING PARCELS BECOME NEARLY SFC BASED. THE MAIN
UNCERTAINTY IS WITH THE AMOUNT OR DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION THE
CAN OCCUR AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW... WHICH WILL BE MODULATED BY
EXTENT OF ANY SOLAR INSOLATION. OVERALL... SOME HAIL AND WIND GUST
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTION MID PM TO VERY
EARLY EVE... WITH MAGNITUDE SOMETHING THAT WILL BE BETTER
ASCERTAINED AS THE DAY AND MESOSCALE DETAILS UNFOLD. SAME CAN BE
SAID FOR ANY TORNADO POTENTIAL. HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION
AND BACKING OF SFC WINDS OCCURS WILL BE CRITICAL FOR ANY TORNADO
RISK AHEAD OF THE LOW. OVERALL MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK WARRANTED
FOR CONDITIONAL SETUP... JUST HAVE TO SEE HOW THE DETAILS EVOLVE
TODAY. OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO AVERAGE AROUND 0.25 TO
0.8 INCH WHICH WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO AGGRAVATE ANY
ONGOING FLOODING GIVEN SWOLLEN WATERWAYS AND SATURATED GROUNDS. 
HIGHS TODAY QUITE THE CHALLENGE WITH BIGGEST BUST POTENTIAL ACROSS
NW CWA NEAR/NW OF CID-DBQ AXIS DEPENDING ON LOW TRACK. OVERALL 
KEPT FAIRLY SIMILAR RANGE FROM PREVIOUS SHIFTS WITH UPPER 40S TO 
POSSIBLY AROUND 50 FAR NW TO NEAR 63 FAR SE. STRONG WARM SECTOR
AND DIMINISHING PRECIP COVERAGE TOWARD MIDDAY THROUGH EARLY PM 
FAVORED NEAR WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE SOUTHEAST 2/3RDS OF CWA WITH
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S AND NEAR RECORD TO RECORD 
TERRITORY. MLI LOOKS TO STAND BEST CHC OF BREAKING RECORD... WHILE
BRL CLOSE AND CID COULD BE CLOSE AS WELL DEPENDING ON THE LOW
TRACK. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. 

TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND RAIN PULL AWAY FROM SW TO NE THIS EVENING. 
WANING DEFORMATION WITH MARGINAL TEMPS COULD BRING POTENTIAL FOR
BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW OR QUICK CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING 
MAINLY CID-DBQ AND NW... BUT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUM. OTHERWISE...THE
MAIN STORY WILL BE WINDY AND RETURN OF WINTER WITH MUCH COLDER
CONDITIONS. STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND ISALLOBARIC RISE IN WAKE OF
DEPARTING LOW WILL SUPPORT WINDY CONDITIONS WITH POTENTIAL FOR
NEEDING WIND ADVISORY SOMETHING FOR LATER SHIFTS TO MONITOR. LOWS
SHOULD CRASH INTO THE UPPER 20S TO POSSIBLY ISOLD MID 20S FAR NW
TO MID 30S FAR SE WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM IS A QUICK SHOT OF WINTRY MIX
ON CHRISTMAS EVE...THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM FOR THE THE DAY AFTER
CHRISTMAS...AND YET ANOTHER SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.  LIKE LAST
NIGHT...MODELS HAVE JUMPED AROUND A BIT...HOWEVER SOME SORT OF TREND
HAS DEVELOPED FOR THE SYSTEM MONDAY.  REGARDLESS...WE ARE IN A
PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER.

CHRISTMAS EVE...

THE GEM THAT I DISCOUNTED LAST NIGHT AS AN OUTLIER WAS CORRECT AS
THE REST OF THE MODELS HAVE NOW CAUGHT ON TO THIS TREND AND BRING A
QUICK VORT MAX THROUGH THE AREA CHRISTMAS EVE.  THIS WAVE WILL BE
RATHER QUICK.  THE THERMAL PROFILE SUGGESTS THAT
SNOW...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN WITH WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE
FORECAST WITH THE SYSTEM. MY GUT IS TELLING ME THAT MOST AREAS WILL
SEE FLURRIES AND SPRINKLES AS THERE IS A DRY POCKET LOWER IN THE
ATMOSPHERE.  THIS QUICK VORT WILL HAVE TO SATURATE THE
COLUMN...WHICH MAY BECOME PROBLEMATIC. MAYBE A TRACE OF SNOW OR RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE.  AT THIS TIME...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THERE WILL
BE ANY TRAVEL CONCERNS ON CHRISTMAS EVE ACROSS OUR AREA.  

CHRISTMAS DAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED WITH NO
CHANCE OF PRECIP AND POSSIBLY SOME SUN ACROSS THE AREA.  CHRISTMAS
NIGHT A SYSTEM FROM THE WEST APPROACHES THE AREA AND COULD LEAD TO
RAIN AND EVEN A MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ZONES OF THE
CWA.

SATURDAY...THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODELS ARE STARTING TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION FOR THIS PERIOD. A
SHRTWV ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL MOVE NORTH INTO
CANADA. THIS WAVE WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA AS MOISTURE
STARTS TO PULL NORTH. THE HIGH ON THE BACK END OF THE TROF WILL AID
IN KEEPING A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.
IT LOOKS AS THOUGH SATURDAY WILL BRING RAIN TO MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING ACROSS THE SE AS THE WARM FRONT
TRIES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THIS AREA AS WELL.  THE 1040+ HIGH WILL PUSH THE
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY LEADING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
PRECIP SUNDAY.  THIS WILL LIKELY BE A RASN MIX WITH A POSSIBLE
TRANSITION TO SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT.  MY GUT IS
TELLING ME THAT BY THE TIME THE COLD AIR REACHES THE AREA...THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
WOULD BE LIGHT.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...

AS I SAID IN MY PREVIOUS AFD...EXPECT THE FORECAST TO CHANGE...WELL
THIS PERIOD DID.  THE GFS LATCHED ON TO THE TREND THAT THE ECMWF WAS
FORECASTING WITH A SLOWER SYSTEM.  THIS IS USUALLY THE CASE WITH
SYSTEMS COMING OUT OF THE SW.  THE 2 TO 5 INCHES THAT THE GFS WAS
PREDICTING LAST NIGHT IS NOW 1 TO 2.  WHILE THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO
HAVE LESS OF A QPF PUNCH...IMPACTS FROM IT STILL SEEM TO BE ABOUND.
THE NEW GFS HAS SNOW FOR THE CWA AS THE LOW IS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST.  THIS IS IN CONTRAST TO THE ECMWF WHICH IS MORE CONSISTENT
RUN TO RUN SUGGESTING RAIN FOR US WITH POSSIBLE FZRA ON THE FRONT
END ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES.  LIKE LAST NIGHT...EXPECT THE FORECAST TO
CHANGE AS WE ARE IN AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER.  DEPENDING ON THE
SOLUTION...THE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY STORM WILL EITHER DROP MORE
LIQUID QPF...POSSIBLY LEADING TO RENEWED FLOODING....OR IT WILL DROP
SNOW.  THE OVERALL CONFIDENCWITH EXCEPTION OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND THE
ROCK RIVER...MOST RIVERS ARE CRESTING...NEAR CREST OR FALLING.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN TODAY...MOST IF NOT ALL OF THIS RAIN
WILL BECOME RUNOFF...MEANING THAT AREA RIVERS COULD SEE RISES
AGAIN IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS....DEPENDING ON WHAT AND WHERE IT
FALLS TODAY.

ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI...MOST SITES WILL EXPERIENCE RISES THROUGH
THIS WEEK WITH THE PROBABILITY FOR MINOR FLOODING INCREASING BY
THURSDAY.

ADDITIONAL RAIN IS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY BUT SHOULD BE MAINLY LIGHT.
YET ANOTHER PRECIPITATION EVENT IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
THUS...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR RIVER FLOODING THROUGH THE CHRISTMAS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.E IN THIS PERIOD IS LOW..IF
NOT VERY LOW ...I TRIED TO TREND MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF IN THE
WEATHER GRIDS AS IT HAD THE BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CST TUE DEC 22 2015

GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH IFR TO LOWER END MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
THE TERMINALS THE NEXT 18 TO POSSIBLY 24 HOURS. A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE
FROM TEXAS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOW
CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 18 HOURS WITH SPOTTY LIGHT FOG
TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AREAS OF LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BETWEEN 23/07Z AND 23/13Z EARLY WEDNESDAY
AND POSSIBLY WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED STORMS NEAR MLI/BRL TERMINALS IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE COVERAGE OF PM PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
WARRANTS A PROB30 GROUPING AT BEST. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20
KTS WILL SHIFT LATE PM TO THE WEST AT 15 TO 30 KTS WITH CLEARING
ARRIVING AROUND 4/06Z OR A BIT LATER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

WITH EXCEPTION OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND THE ROCK RIVER...MOST RIVERS
ARE CRESTING...NEAR CREST OR FALLING.  THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN
TODAY...MOST IF NOT ALL OF THIS RAIN WILL BECOME RUNOFF...MEANING
THAT AREA RIVERS COULD SEE RISES AGAIN IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS....DEPENDING ON WHAT AND WHERE IT FALLS TODAY.

ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI...MOST SITES WILL EXPERIENCE RISES THROUGH
THIS WEEK WITH THE PROBABILITY FOR MINOR FLOODING INCREASING BY
THURSDAY.

ADDITIONAL RAIN IS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY BUT SHOULD BE MAINLY LIGHT.
YET ANOTHER PRECIPITATION EVENT IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
THUS...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR RIVER FLOODING THROUGH THE CHRISTMAS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

RECORD HIGHS FOR DECEMBER 23...

MOLINE.........59 IN 1982
CEDAR RAPIDS...56 IN 1965
DUBUQUE........58 IN 1888
BURLINGTON.....64 IN 1933

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCCLURE
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...MCCLURE
AVIATION...NICHOLS 
HYDROLOGY...GIBBS 
CLIMATE...MCCLURE