National Weather Service Raw Text Product

000 
FXHW60 PHFO 150600
AFDHI 

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST WED JUL 14 2004

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE MAIN 
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WILL KEEP MODERATE TRADES BLOWING THROUGH THE 
FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE AT TIMES AS 
CLOUD BANDS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES PASS OVER THE ISLANDS. A WEAK 
UPPER LOW MAY ENHANCE SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SOME 700 NM NORTH OF KAUAI 
WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN ATTRACTION FOR OUR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS. THE HIGHS NEARLY STATIONARY POSTURE INTO THE WEEKEND MEANS THE
MODERATE TRADES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. WE ARE 
KEEPING CLOSE TABS ON A MID LEVEL LOW FORECAST TO TEASE THE MAIN 
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST GFE 
RUN SUGGEST THE LOW TO SKIRT BIG ISLAND LATE SUNDAY AND ENDING UP 
CLOSE TO KAUAI AND OAHU MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY 
WILL BE GREATEST OVER KAUAI AND OAHU...RESULTING IN ENHANCED TRADE 
SHOWERS AND EVEN AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY OVER 
THE WATERS SURROUNDING THOSE TWO ISLANDS. 

BUT BEFORE THAT...CLOUD BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH OLD SHEARLINES AND 
COLD FRONTS IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES ARE FORECAST TO GET 
CAUGHT UP IN THE TRADES AND INFLUENCE PARTICULARLY KAUAI...MAY BE 
OAHU...THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS THE NEXT BAND 
OF SHOWER-BEARING CLOUDS ABOUT 230 NM NORTH NORTHEAST OF OAHU MOVING 
SOUTHWEST ABOUT 15 KT. THE BAND WILL TEND TO TURN A BIT MORE WEST 
AS IT NEARS KAUAI AND OAHU. IN SHORT...KAUAI MAY HAVE SOME SHOWERS 
THURSDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST SWELL REACHED THE EQUATORIAL BUOY 
(51028) SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND AT 5 AM THIS MORNING. IT TAKES 
USUALLY TWO DAYS FOR THE SWELL TO REACH OUR SOUTHERN SHORES. 
THEREFORE WERE LOOKING AT FRIDAY. SO FAR THE SWELL HEIGHT HAS BEEN 
SLOW TO RISE. ONLY IN THE LAST HOUR DID THE SWELL PERKED UP TO 6 AND 
A HALF FEET. THE PERIOD IS PRETTY GOOD THOUGHT AT 19 SECONDS. SO FAR 
WAVE MODEL CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SURF OF AROUND 8 FEET FRIDAY AND 
SATURDAY.  

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$
LAU

EFFECTIVE 800 AM HST...JULY 15...2004...AFDHI WILL BE ISSUED AS 
AFDHFO. THE WMO HEADING FXHW60 PHFO WILL REMAIN THE SAME.