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Displaying AFOS PIL: SWODY2 Product Timestamp: 2002-04-25 17:31 UTC
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707 ACUS02 KWNS 251731 SWODY2 SPC AC 251729 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWNS. VALID 261200Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW P07 40 NNE MRF CNM ROW 30 ENE TAD LIC 40 SE AKO GLD 45 NNW GCK 30 SW DDC GAG CSM 45 WNW MWL BWD DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ELP ONM 4SL GUC 50 SSW CAG PUC CDC 65 S TPH BIH 35 SSW TVL 50 W RNO SVE BOI 75 W 27U MSO 50 W GTF 3HT BIL SHR GCC 9V9 SPW CID SPI CKV MSL 40 NNW MEI JAN ESF LFK AUS 55 NW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM AQQ TLH VLD SSI. --- SYNOPSIS --- PROGRESSIVE/TRANSITORY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CONUS. SPLIT FLOW NOW EVIDENT AROUND UPPER CYCLONE OFF CA COAST WILL REUNITE THIS PERIOD AS LOW MOVES EWD ACROSS ERN CA/AZ AND OPENS...THEN ACCELERATES ENEWD ACROSS SRN ROCKIES AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SHORT-RANGE MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO ALOFT -- AND WITH RESULTANT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGHOUT PERIOD -- CONSIDERING CURRENT POSITION OF FEATURE IN OFFSHORE UPPER AIR DATA VOID. AT SURFACE...COLD FRONT NOW ANALYZED FROM ERN PA SWWD ALONG UPPER PIEDMONT...TO LA COAST...IS STALLING FARTHER WWD ACROSS S TX AND SHOULD RETURN NWD REMAINDER DAY-1 INTO DAY-2 AS WARM FRONT. --- SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS --- UNLIKE ETA PROGS AND MORE IN TUNE WITH AVN -- PRIND EXTENSIVE PRECIP DEVELOPMENT FROM WRN/CENTRAL TX NEWD WILL IMPEDE RETURN OF CURRENT FRONT AND EFFECTIVELY KEEP IT WIDELY SEPARATED FROM SYNOPTIC WARM FRONTOGENESIS OVER CENTRAL PLAINS. THEREFORE... MESOSCALE POSITIONING AND ORIENTATION OF BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE GREATEST FACTOR IN TSTM INITIATION AND MODE. PRIND ELONGATED/ TRIANGULAR WEDGE OF MOIST SECTOR AIR WITH 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER ERN NM/FAR W TX -- BETWEEN DRYLINE AND OUTFLOW-REINFORCED FRONT. STRONG HEATING AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS BENEATH STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL AND SEVERE WIND. TORNADO THREAT IS FAR MORE CONDITIONAL AND SPECULATIVE THIS FAR OUT IN TIME -- WITH BIGGEST FACTOR PROBABLY BEING CHARACTERISTICS OF MESOSCALE FOCI NEAR FRONT. LINE OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS MAY DEVELOP AFTER DARK AND MOVE EWD ACROSS PORTIONS WRN TX/OK/KS. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BECOME MORE SPARSE WITH NWD EXTENT TOWARD ERN CO SURFACE CYCLONE BECAUSE OF RESTRICTED MOISTURE FROM CONTINENTAL/ ANTICYCLONIC LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES...THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORT STORM ROTATION AND LARGE HAIL IN ANY CELLS THAT CAN FORM. AFTER DARK...ELEVATED WAA ZONE N OF SURFACE SYNOPTIC FRONT MAY YIELD A FEW HAILSTORMS...BUT THREAT IS TOO CONDITIONAL/MARGINAL FOR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM. ..EDWARDS.. 04/25/02
000 ACUS02 KWNS 251731 SWODY2 SPC AC 251729 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWNS. VALID 261200Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW P07 40 NNE MRF CNM ROW 30 ENE TAD LIC 40 SE AKO GLD 45 NNW GCK 30 SW DDC GAG CSM 45 WNW MWL BWD DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ELP ONM 4SL GUC 50 SSW CAG PUC CDC 65 S TPH BIH 35 SSW TVL 50 W RNO SVE BOI 75 W 27U MSO 50 W GTF 3HT BIL SHR GCC 9V9 SPW CID SPI CKV MSL 40 NNW MEI JAN ESF LFK AUS 55 NW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM AQQ TLH VLD SSI. --- SYNOPSIS --- PROGRESSIVE/TRANSITORY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CONUS. SPLIT FLOW NOW EVIDENT AROUND UPPER CYCLONE OFF CA COAST WILL REUNITE THIS PERIOD AS LOW MOVES EWD ACROSS ERN CA/AZ AND OPENS...THEN ACCELERATES ENEWD ACROSS SRN ROCKIES AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SHORT-RANGE MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO ALOFT -- AND WITH RESULTANT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGHOUT PERIOD -- CONSIDERING CURRENT POSITION OF FEATURE IN OFFSHORE UPPER AIR DATA VOID. AT SURFACE...COLD FRONT NOW ANALYZED FROM ERN PA SWWD ALONG UPPER PIEDMONT...TO LA COAST...IS STALLING FARTHER WWD ACROSS S TX AND SHOULD RETURN NWD REMAINDER DAY-1 INTO DAY-2 AS WARM FRONT. --- SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS --- UNLIKE ETA PROGS AND MORE IN TUNE WITH AVN -- PRIND EXTENSIVE PRECIP DEVELOPMENT FROM WRN/CENTRAL TX NEWD WILL IMPEDE RETURN OF CURRENT FRONT AND EFFECTIVELY KEEP IT WIDELY SEPARATED FROM SYNOPTIC WARM FRONTOGENESIS OVER CENTRAL PLAINS. THEREFORE... MESOSCALE POSITIONING AND ORIENTATION OF BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE GREATEST FACTOR IN TSTM INITIATION AND MODE. PRIND ELONGATED/ TRIANGULAR WEDGE OF MOIST SECTOR AIR WITH 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER ERN NM/FAR W TX -- BETWEEN DRYLINE AND OUTFLOW-REINFORCED FRONT. STRONG HEATING AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS BENEATH STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL AND SEVERE WIND. TORNADO THREAT IS FAR MORE CONDITIONAL AND SPECULATIVE THIS FAR OUT IN TIME -- WITH BIGGEST FACTOR PROBABLY BEING CHARACTERISTICS OF MESOSCALE FOCI NEAR FRONT. LINE OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS MAY DEVELOP AFTER DARK AND MOVE EWD ACROSS PORTIONS WRN TX/OK/KS. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BECOME MORE SPARSE WITH NWD EXTENT TOWARD ERN CO SURFACE CYCLONE BECAUSE OF RESTRICTED MOISTURE FROM CONTINENTAL/ ANTICYCLONIC LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES...THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORT STORM ROTATION AND LARGE HAIL IN ANY CELLS THAT CAN FORM. AFTER DARK...ELEVATED WAA ZONE N OF SURFACE SYNOPTIC FRONT MAY YIELD A FEW HAILSTORMS...BUT THREAT IS TOO CONDITIONAL/MARGINAL FOR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM. ..EDWARDS.. 04/25/02