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113 FXUS63 KIND 141758 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 158 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Flood watch through 10PM for the I-70 corridor and points to the south - Heavy downpours and localized flooding will be the primary threat through this evening - Cold air funnels may be possible today - Near daily risk for showers and isolated t-storms through much of next week...severe storm potential for Wednesday-Thursday - Warm and muggy conditions are expected through the upcoming week with partial relief to less humid conditions in the late week && .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 156 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Surface analysis shows several weak surface low pressure areas along a nearly stationary extending along I-70 in central Indiana into southern Illinois. Recent radar imagery shows an outflow boundary from earlier showers over SW Indiana recently merging with the synoptic boundary in west central Indiana...increasing deep moisture convergence fields and a marked increase in convective shower/isolated thunderstorm development. ACARS soundings from KIND show a very moist airmass with PWAT values around 1.90 inches with moderate instability /SBCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG/. Skinny CAPE profiles would support meager updraft intensity and therefore not as much lightning in this moist/tropical-like environment except in areas of cell mergers. However, "cold-air" funnels will remain possible with the stronger more isolated cells thanks to moderate 3km CAPE /120-150 j/kg/ and decent surface vorticity in the area. The expectation is the aforementioned synoptic scale boundary and outflow/cell mergers will support a threat for excessive rainfall amounts across portions of central indiana /generally along and south of I-70/ through the afternoon. With rainfall totals of 2-4 inches possible and a fairly saturated ground, ponding of water on some roadways and an increase in the levels of creeks and streams warrants the need for flood headlines. Thus we have issues a flood watch for this area until 10 pm EDT. Shower/thunderstorm activity will begin to diminish with some loss of heating and convective overturning occurring across most of the region by late afternoon/early evening. && .SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)... Issued at 326 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Slow moving showers will continue for much of today, as a low slinks through the Ohio Valley, before finally pushing off to the SE by tonight. Overnight, showers were persistently draped across the northern portion of the forecast area. CAMs are showing this will continue into the morning hours, possibly letting up on the intensity some after daybreak. PWats however will remain above 1.5" through much of the day, so even if coverage is less, isolated heavy rain and localized flooding will remain possible. Those in north- central Indiana should be especially cautious of any flooding that may have formed overnight, and heed road closure signs if they exist. With the low nearby and very weak flow aloft, there is a heightened risk for cold air funnels today. Lapse rates will be nearly moist adiabatic with very low LCLs which combined with the weak near surface convergence near the front will create nearly ideal conditions. With numerous outdoor activities, will be issuing an SPS to highlight the threat for cold air funnels. The front associated with the low should then finally push SE around midday to the afternoon hours, finally moving most of the precipitation out of the forecast area tonight. Despite the passage of a front and winds shifting from southerly to more northerly by tonight, there will be very little effect on the temperatures. Highs today will again range from the mid 70s to near 80 while lows tonight will be in the 60s. && .LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)... Issued at 326 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Next week will continue the recent humid and seasonably warm pattern as Indiana sits between a upper zonal pattern retracted north...and subtropical surface high pressure slowly building over the southeastern CONUS that will maintain muggy conditions via southerly flow out of this air mass. A more pronounced northern stream H500 short wave around the Thursday timeframe is expected to cross the Great Lakes before a subsequent broad upper ridge builds northward over the vast majority of the US and into the Midwest as the long term period ends. Sunday should be dry for most locations, although a few, mainly afternoon showers/t-storms will be possible south and east of Indianapolis. Diurnally driven, yet mainly only widely scattered convection is expected Monday into the mid-week. Greater chances of organized storms, or at least appreciable rainfall exist for late Wednesday into Thursday when the tail of the passing northern wave should focus anomalously high precipitable water values over 2.00 inches. The potential for severe weather may hinge on whether impressive instability can linger long enough to combine with shear arriving from the northwestern Midwest. Perhaps a brief window for moderated humidity towards the end of the workweek before the muggy pattern returns, and perhaps with higher temperatures as the upper ridge builds into Indiana. Afternoon maximums in the 80s will be the rule per H850 temperatures in the 15-20 degrees Celsius range, yet higher humidity will boost heat index values above 90F at times, especially for Tuesday and Wednesday when moderate to robust southwesterly breezes will bring dewpoints to near 75 degrees. Overnight lows within the 65-70F range is expected for most locations. && .AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 156 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Impacts: -Low LIFR conditions at KBMG in early morning improving by early afternoon -Thunderstorms later this afternoon at KHUF -Low vis early morning at KHUF with mist dissipating in the early afternoon -Light rain possible later tonight with low vis occurring in the morning with mist dissipating in the late afternoon at KLAF -Possible thunderstorms this evening at KIND along with low ceilings Discussion: Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible in the evening with low vis and mist occurring in the early morning. Highest confidence at KHUF, KBMG, and KLAF for low vis conditions clearing out by tomorrow afternoon. All conditions will clear up by tomorrow afternoon. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for INZ045>049-051>057- 060>065. && $$ MESOSCALE...Crosbie SHORT TERM...KF LONG TERM...AGM AVIATION...Kocsis/White