National Weather Service Raw Text Product

059 
FXUS63 KFGF 131137
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
637 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain continues across southeastern North Dakota and west 
  central Minnesota this morning, with a 90 percent chance for 
  over a half an inch of rain south of I-94. 

- Period of strong to severe storms next week in some locations.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 636 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

The frontal boundary across the ND/SD border finally moved and
shifted into west central Minnesota. Rain has overspread 
southeastern ND and west central MN over the past couple of 
hours and continues to move ENE. Rain will continue through the
mid morning as the upper level system shifts eastward. 
Instability has weakened and thus the chances for thunderstorms
across the far southern forecast area. Still looking at chances
for isolated showers this afternoon/evening across northwestern
MN and into portions of southeastern ND. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

...Synopsis...

Flow remains zonal aloft allowing for systems to ride along the 
upper level ridge across central CONUS. These waves bring multiple 
chances for showers and storms to the region over the course of the 
next seven days. Currently an upper level wave is moving across
the Dakotas and Minnesota, with a baroclinic zone draped along 
the ND/SD border. Rain and storms will continue through the 
remainder of the morning hours, with isolated activity this 
afternoon and drying conditions by this evening. Heavy rainfall 
rates will be possible this morning for far southeastern ND and 
into west central MN. Further systems work there way along the 
zonal flow, with the next pushing through Saturday into Sunday. 
A more robust system moves through late Sunday into Monday 
bringing the chance for strong storms to the forecast area. As 
we progress into next week we become active with multiple 
chances of showers and storms, with a few being on the strong to
potential severe side. Temperatures through the weekend and 
into next week will be around seasonal averages, with highs in 
the 70s to lower 80s.

...Rainfall through the morning...

Current radar has an area of scattered showers and isolated storms 
within Ransom, Sargent, Richland, and Wilkin counties. The 
instability axis is draped along the baroclinic zone stretching 
through northeastern SD. CAPE remains around 100-200 J/kg around the 
ND/SD border and 500-700 J/kg within northeastern SD. The baroclinic 
zone has been fairly stationary across northeastern SD this morning, 
with strong warm air advection. Rainfall rates have been anywhere 
from 1 to 2 inches within northeastern SD, with locally higher rates 
as the thunderstorms have been training over the same locations. 
CAMS keep the heaviest rainfall south of the forecast area this 
morning. The instability axis and frontal boundary shifts ENE 
through far southeastern ND into west central MN through the
morning. As the frontal boundary moves ENE showers and storms 
will propagate into our forecast area. 

Heavy rainfall rates and lightning will be possible with these 
showers and storms as they progress into far southeastern ND and 
through west central MN. Uncertainty arises in rainfall rates 
for our area and the track of the showers and storms, with the 
potential for a slight shift to the north (10 percent chance). 
This would propagate the heavier rainfall rates and 
thunderstorms from northeastern SD into Sargent, Ransom, and 
Richland counties through west central MN. In turn, this would 
increase rainfall rates up to an inch per hour as seen in areas 
within northeastern SD. This scenario is unlikely as CAMS have 
the heaviest precip remaining in northeastern SD this morning, 
with the frontal boundary being fairly progressive as it shifts 
through Minnesota limiting the potential for training storms. 

High pressure toward the north is also helping to keep a sharp 
gradient of moisture across the area, with dry air remaining 
strongly in place across areas north of I-94. This will aid in 
keeping the heavier rainfall south of our forecast area. 
Probabilities of seeing over a half of an inch of rainfall is 90
percent for areas south of I-94 through the late morning hours.
Isolated showers and storms will be possible this afternoon 
before conditions dry out as the upper level wave moves further 
into Minnesota and through the Great Lakes.

...Active Period Next Week...

Several shortwaves move through the northern plains from this 
weekend through next week. The first comes Saturday into Sunday 
bringing the chance for showers and storms to the region. A more 
robust system moves into the area late Sunday into Monday. This 
system bares watching as latest guidance indicates a strong surge of 
moisture and instability ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. 
Looking at atmospheric soundings, profiles show shear ranging from 
20-30kts, long skinny CAPE, and modest lapse rates. Storm mode looks 
to start discrete in central and western ND and merge into a linear 
segment as it progresses into eastern ND and northwestern MN. 
Confidence is low at this time on development, track, and exact 
storm mode but the system bares watching as our pattern becomes 
active and machine learning indicates a 5 to 15 percent chance for 
severe thunderstorms. Further chances for storms as we progress into 
the new week, with the potential for stronger storms at times.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 636 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Isolated showers continue across portions of southeastern North
Dakota and parts of west central Minnesota this morning. 
Chances affect FAR and BJI through the mid morning before the 
showers and storms shift off toward the east. IFR to MVFR 
conditions will continue for FAR through the morning and into 
the afternoon and evening. The cloud deck with lower ceilings 
will drift between GFK and FAR throughout the day and near the 
end of the TAF period reach BJI, GFK, and TVF. Isolated showers 
will be possible for FAR and BJI this afternoon and evening. 
Otherwise, easterly winds throughout the TAF period, with gusts 
reaching 25kts this morning and afternoon for each site but BJI.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Spender
DISCUSSION...Spender
AVIATION...Spender