National Weather Service Raw Text Product

424 
FXUS63 KIND 130723
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
323 AM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Numerous showers and thunderstorms today through much of the 
  weekend

- Heavy downpours and localized flooding will be the primary threat 
  Friday afternoon through Saturday evening

- A near daily risk for scattered showers and storms will continue 
  through much of next week

- Muggy conditions are expected through the upcoming week

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 323 AM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

A slow moving low pressure system is making it's way into the Ohio 
Valley, bringing showers and storms throughout the short term 
period. The column has been moistening throughout the night, working 
to erode the dry layer at the lower levels. Light rain has been able 
to reach the surface at times overnight and this precipitation will 
steadily increase through the morning as much deeper moisture takes 
over with isentropic lift increase as well. Numerous to widespread 
showers and storms expected by midday to the afternoon.  

While lightning is expected, especially later in the day, severe 
weather is luckily not expected in the short term. Instability 
should be limited and lapse rates poor while little boundary 
layer shear is expected to keep convection disorganized. Rainfall 
amounts and potential flooding could be a concern with PWATS of 
1.5" to 2" likely today. Localized heavy downpours in stronger 
clusters and flash flooding will be a threat this afternoon into 
the overnight. 

High temperatures will be seasonable with highs in the upper 70s to 
low 80s while tonight will be warmer than normal, dropping only to 
the upper 60s to near 70 thanks to the saturated atmosphere.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 323 AM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Coming off of a generally rainy and overall mild pattern over the 
past four weeks...central Indiana's long term will exhibit more 
typically midsummer conditions with near-consistent higher 
humidity...and often widely scattered convection that will also 
occasionally include either more widespread showers or mainly dry 
days. The continent's prevailing upper pattern will be zonal and 
generally retracted to near the Canadian border...although any 
organized subtropical ridging should be confined to the southwestern 
CONUS. In between, Indiana can expect a weak disturbance to slowly 
pass on Saturday...the northwestern portions of broad yet weak 
surface high pressure early next week...which will then yield a 
stronger gradient through the midweek as a more pronounced short 
wave crosses from the northern Plains to the Great Lakes. 

Saturday's numerous to widespread showers will include at least a 
few thunderstorms with isolated downpours.  Severe weather is not 
expected given the weakly-sheared environment, although a few strong 
storms are possible, and slow cell motion is expected to allow 
localized areas of 1-2 inches of rainfall.  Ponding of low-lying 
areas and localized flooding are possible, especially near/south of 
the I-70 corridor.  The Sunday-Monday timeframe should lean toward 
more isolated showers and t-storms exhibiting a minor diurnal 
enhancement...as weak Canadian ridging attempts to build southward 
into the region on light northeasterly winds.

Tuesday-Wednesday's often south-southwesterly surface flow will 
maintain dewpoints around or slightly above 70F...and promote 
precipitable water values of generally 1.50-2.00 inches...with 
scattered to numerous afternoon showers again bringing the chance of 
thunderstorms with locally heavier rainfall rates.  The long term 
may end with the opportunity for a rather brief shot of at least 
drier, if not milder air that may follow the stronger short wave 
crossing the Great Lakes, although lower confidence at the moment 
with this potential lower humidity.  High temperatures through the 
period will range from around 80F on Saturday to low to mid-80s 
thereafter...while overnight lows trend from the mid to upper 60s to 
around 70F.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 323 AM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Impacts:

- MVFR conditions developing within showers/storms Friday morning 
and persisting throughout the TAF period

Discussion:  

VFR conditions will continue through tonight as high level cloud 
coverage steadily increases from the southwest. Radar imagery 
already shows a precipitation trying to work in aloft from the 
southwest, but due to a dry atmospheric profile, the amount of rain 
reaching the ground is being limited. Cigs will steadily lower 
through the night, but likely will not drop to MVFR levels until 
midday to afternoon. Showers increase from the southwest late 
tonight, with showers and thunderstorms near all TAF sites within 
the 13-17z timeframe. Convection will likely be at max coverage 
during the afternoon and evening hours. Still expecting some showers 
and storms tomorrow night, however coverage may be more isolated to 
scattered. Expect MVFR or lower cigs and vis under heavier showers 
and storms throughout tomorrow.

Winds remain out of the south less than 7 kts through the period. 
Winds may become more southeasterly by the evening.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...AGM
AVIATION...KF