National Weather Service Raw Text Product

670 
FXUS63 KDVN 112348
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
548 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 545 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015

LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN IA/WESTERN IL AND
RACING EAST TO NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH! THE HRRR MESO MODEL HAS DONE A
VERY GOOD JOB WITH THE TIMING OF THIS LINE ALL DAY...WITH THIS
LINE EXITING THE DVN CWA TO OUR EAST BY 8 TO 9 PM.

THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN (988 MB) AND WAS TRACKING TOWARDS
NORTHEAST IOWA WITH THE STRONG COLD FRONT IN WESTERN IA READY TO
SWEEP RAPIDLY EASTWARD. VERY HIGH GRADIENT WINDS WILL THEN TAKE
OVER LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE CYCLONE TRACKS INTO WI AND
THEN INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015

STRONG NOVEMBER STORM SYSTEM IS INTESYFYING AS IT MOVES ACROSS OUR
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.  THUNDERSTORMS...SOME THAT COULD BE STRONG
TO SEVERE ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE FORECAST.  A
DEEPENING SFC LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NE KS AND S NE THIS AFTERNOON.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING ACROSS WESTERN IA
THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE NE
THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THE
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE AND THE STRONG WINDS
OVERNIGHT ON THE BACK END OF THE STORM SYSTEM OVERNIGHT.  AS
ADVERTISED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSIONS THERE IS AN ENHANCED
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AND A WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT AFTER
THE STORMS END TONIGHT.

LOOKING AT THE STORM SYSTEM FROM A TOP DOWN APPROACH.  STRONG H3 JET
WILL BRUSH THE SOUTHERN CWA WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION ACROSS OUR
AREA.  THIS WILL LEAD TO LARGESCALE RISING MOTION ACROSS SOUTHERN IA
AND WESTERN ILL.  THE H5 WAVE STILL IS FORECAST TO SWING NEGATIVE
ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.  THIS WITH THE H3 FLOW WILL LEAD
TO VERY STRONG DIFFLUENCE AND RISING MOTION. AT H85...THE LLJ
TERMINUS ROTATES THROUGH THE CWA FROM 18Z TO 00Z ONLY INCREASING THE
LIKELIHOOD OF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.  AGAIN THESE DYNAMICS ARE
PRODUCING IMPRESSIVE SHEAR VALUES ACROSS OUR AREA.  AS WITH PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT A FORGONE CONCLUSION AS CAPE AND
TIMING OF DAY WILL COME INTO PLAY.

THE STRONG DYNAMICS HAVE LEAD TO MOISTURE RETURN THAT WAS WELL ABOVE
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.  THIS ALONG WITH BREAKS IN THE SKY HAVE LEAD TO
HEATING AND ENOUGH CAPE TO SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITIES OF SEVERE OF
WEATHER.  ALL TYPES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.  THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING VERY FAST AND COULD LEAD TO
LITTLE TIME TO RESPOND TO THEM.  THIS SITUATION NEEDS TO BE
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

WIND ADVISORY IS STILL IN EFFECT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.  THE
STRONG SFC LOW WILL LEAD TO STRONG GRADIENT WINDS TONIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA.  REPORTS OF DAMAGE FROM NON THUNDERSTORM WINDS HAVE BEEN
REPORTED IN THE KANSAS CITY AREA.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CURRENT WIND
SPEEDS MAY BE TOO LOW AND A HIGH WIND WARNING MAY BE NEEDED  ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WIND ADVISORY.  HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH IN THE SHAPE OF CHANGES FROM THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015

HEADLINES...WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY THIS EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY. PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAY NEED THE ADVISORY EXTENDED INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. LATER SHIFTS CAN EVALUTE.

FORECAST FOCUS ON WINDY CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT THEN A DRY
AND QUIET WEEKEND. ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...INTENSE CYCLONE WILL BE OCCLUDING AS
IT TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE AS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE CYCLONE AND
HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED IN THE HIGH PLAINS. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS
WILL END EARLY THURSDAY MORNING IN OUR FAR NORTH AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS FARTHER AWAY. THIS WILL BE A CHILLY DAY WITH MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...ESPECIALLY COMBINED
WITH THE VERY STRONG WINDS.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...STILL RATHER WINDY IN THE MORNING BUT
THE WINDS WILL BE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON...AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CWA. SKIES WILL BE SUNNY OVER MOST
OF THE AREA. THIS RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. COLD TEMPERATURES WITH MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.

THIS WEEKEND...DRY AND SEASONAL AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES AND ANOTHER DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE ROCKIES. 

EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM TO BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE CWA BUT TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST
RAINS STILL TO BE DETERMINED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 545 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015

LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS SWEEPING ACROSS
THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE LINE WILL BE MVFR
CIGS AND VERY STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF SUSTAINED 25 TO 35
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO OVER 40 KNOTS. THESE WIND SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH CONDS BECOMING VFR ON THURSDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR CLINTON-DES MOINES-
     JACKSON-LEE-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR 
     BENTON-BUCHANAN-CEDAR-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-IOWA-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LINN-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK 
     ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR CLARK.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR 
     SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...HAASE