National Weather Service Raw Text Product

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PIL:
Start UTC Date @0z:
End UTC Date @0z:
783 
ACUS11 KWNS 100801
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100800 
ILZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-101000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2165
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2002

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CENTRAL KY...WRN/MID TN...EXTREME SERN
IL...EXTREME SRN INDIANA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 741...742...

VALID 100800Z - 101000Z

THREAT OF SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES...SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS PORTIONS WRN/MID TN AND CENTRAL/WRN
KY THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 10Z.


PRIND BULK OF SEVERE THREAT MAY BE FAR ENOUGH E BY THEN TO ALLOW
WW 741 TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED...THOUGH SOME SEVERE THREAT MAY
REMAIN WITH ZONALLY ORIENTED LINE OF TSTMS ACROSS NWRN KY.  THIS
LINE AND ANOTHER NOW FROM ROBERTSON/SUMNER COUNTIES TN TO HART
COUNTY KY POSE SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT...AS WELL AS POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES FM EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS.  ISOLATED/CYCLIC AND VERY
PERSISTENT SUPERCELL -- WITH HISTORY OF DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES --
CONTINUES MOVING ALONG I-40 INTO MID TN AND MAY PERSIST ANOTHER
1-2 HOURS IN A FAVORABLY UNSTABLE AND SHEARED AIR MASS.  MODIFIED
VWP AND RUC HODOGRAPHS INDICATE SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS
WILL CONTINUE SEVERAL MORE HOURS IN AND NEAR WW 742 -- WITH
EXTREME 0-3 KM SRH FROM 500 TO OVER 1000 J/KG...AND ROUGHLY 60 KT
0-6 KM LAYER VECTOR SHEAR.  MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR COVERAGE
WILL BE LOW LEVEL CINH...WHICH IS GREATLY LIMITING NEAR
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION FROM ABOUT I-40 SWD.  NEAR-SURFACE CINH
SHOULD INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE BECAUSE OF
DIABATIC SURFACE COOLING...AND ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS SERN TN
ATTM MAY REMAIN ELEVATED.


..EDWARDS.. 11/10/2002

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
000 
ACUS11 KWNS 100801
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100800 
ILZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-101000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2165
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2002

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CENTRAL KY...WRN/MID TN...EXTREME SERN
IL...EXTREME SRN INDIANA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 741...742...

VALID 100800Z - 101000Z

THREAT OF SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES...SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS PORTIONS WRN/MID TN AND CENTRAL/WRN
KY THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 10Z.


PRIND BULK OF SEVERE THREAT MAY BE FAR ENOUGH E BY THEN TO ALLOW
WW 741 TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED...THOUGH SOME SEVERE THREAT MAY
REMAIN WITH ZONALLY ORIENTED LINE OF TSTMS ACROSS NWRN KY.  THIS
LINE AND ANOTHER NOW FROM ROBERTSON/SUMNER COUNTIES TN TO HART
COUNTY KY POSE SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT...AS WELL AS POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES FM EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS.  ISOLATED/CYCLIC AND VERY
PERSISTENT SUPERCELL -- WITH HISTORY OF DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES --
CONTINUES MOVING ALONG I-40 INTO MID TN AND MAY PERSIST ANOTHER
1-2 HOURS IN A FAVORABLY UNSTABLE AND SHEARED AIR MASS.  MODIFIED
VWP AND RUC HODOGRAPHS INDICATE SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS
WILL CONTINUE SEVERAL MORE HOURS IN AND NEAR WW 742 -- WITH
EXTREME 0-3 KM SRH FROM 500 TO OVER 1000 J/KG...AND ROUGHLY 60 KT
0-6 KM LAYER VECTOR SHEAR.  MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR COVERAGE
WILL BE LOW LEVEL CINH...WHICH IS GREATLY LIMITING NEAR
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION FROM ABOUT I-40 SWD.  NEAR-SURFACE CINH
SHOULD INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE BECAUSE OF
DIABATIC SURFACE COOLING...AND ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS SERN TN
ATTM MAY REMAIN ELEVATED.


..EDWARDS.. 11/10/2002

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...