783 ACUS11 KWNS 100801 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100800 ILZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-101000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2165 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0200 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2002 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CENTRAL KY...WRN/MID TN...EXTREME SERN IL...EXTREME SRN INDIANA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 741...742... VALID 100800Z - 101000Z THREAT OF SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES...SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS PORTIONS WRN/MID TN AND CENTRAL/WRN KY THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 10Z. PRIND BULK OF SEVERE THREAT MAY BE FAR ENOUGH E BY THEN TO ALLOW WW 741 TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED...THOUGH SOME SEVERE THREAT MAY REMAIN WITH ZONALLY ORIENTED LINE OF TSTMS ACROSS NWRN KY. THIS LINE AND ANOTHER NOW FROM ROBERTSON/SUMNER COUNTIES TN TO HART COUNTY KY POSE SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT...AS WELL AS POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES FM EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. ISOLATED/CYCLIC AND VERY PERSISTENT SUPERCELL -- WITH HISTORY OF DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES -- CONTINUES MOVING ALONG I-40 INTO MID TN AND MAY PERSIST ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS IN A FAVORABLY UNSTABLE AND SHEARED AIR MASS. MODIFIED VWP AND RUC HODOGRAPHS INDICATE SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE SEVERAL MORE HOURS IN AND NEAR WW 742 -- WITH EXTREME 0-3 KM SRH FROM 500 TO OVER 1000 J/KG...AND ROUGHLY 60 KT 0-6 KM LAYER VECTOR SHEAR. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR COVERAGE WILL BE LOW LEVEL CINH...WHICH IS GREATLY LIMITING NEAR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION FROM ABOUT I-40 SWD. NEAR-SURFACE CINH SHOULD INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE BECAUSE OF DIABATIC SURFACE COOLING...AND ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS SERN TN ATTM MAY REMAIN ELEVATED. ..EDWARDS.. 11/10/2002 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...