168 
FXUS63 KFSD 101742
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1142 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy flurries remain possible through sunset.

- Another quick wave will bring renewed chances for rain, light
  snow, and a wintry mix from late tonight into Thursday. 
  Accumulations will range from 1-2 inches of snow mainly across
  southwestern MN and a glaze of ice along a Huron to Sioux 
  Falls to Storm Lake, IA line. While accumulations are expected
  to be mainly light, minor travel impacts will be possible 
  especially north of I- 90. 

- Confidence continues to increase in arctic air bringing near
  advisory level wind chills to the region by this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

TODAY-THURSDAY: A cooler and breezier day ahead! Taking a look 
across the area, pockets of lingering flurries to light snow showers 
continue to progress across the area this morning mainly across 
areas along and east of I-29. While light accumulations of tenth or 
two are expected, most this light activity should gradually progress 
out of the area by late morning. From here, a breezier and cooler 
day continues as strong northwesterly surface winds gradually 
decrease during the first half off the day with an approaching a 
surface high. Temperature-wise, lingering cold air advection (CAA) 
and persist cloud cover should help our temperatures continue to 
decrease throughout the day with highs mainly in the 20s to low 30s. 
Otherwise, our focus will shift northwestwards as another clipper 
wave ejects into the upper plains from late tonight into Thursday.
 
Initially, precipitation will likely start as light snow across 
areas west of the James River overnight. However, as warm air 
advection (WAA) strengthens ahead of a surface warm front by 
Thursday morning; most of the precipitation will likely transition 
to a wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow as it gradually 
progresses southeastwards along a Huron to Sioux Falls to Storm 
Lake, IA line. While ice accumulations continue to look light with a 
glaze of ice expected, the combination of wintry mix and snow could 
create some slicker road conditions along and just south of the 
Highway-14 corridor during the morning commute. With this in mind, 
decided to issue a Winter Weather Advisory from 6 am to 3 pm on 
Thursday for the previously outlined areas. From here, things will 
continue to gradually progress southeastwards into the early 
afternoon with the main focus being snow in southwestern MN. Looking 
at HREF guidance, snowfall rates of 0.25" to 0.50" in/hr will be 
possible through late afternoon which could lead to quick 
accumulations of 1-2 inches along and east of the Buffalo Ridge. 
Lastly, should see snow begin to taper off eastwards into the early 
evening.

THE WEEKEND: Heading into the weekend, mostly quiet conditions are 
expected for most of the day on Friday. However, this will be short-
lived as another mid-level clipper swings through the area from 
Friday night into Saturday bringing renewed chances for snow. While 
amounts are still uncertain at this time, ensemble guidance 
continues to show moderate to high confidence (50%-70%) in at least 
1 inch of snow across most areas. Otherwise, the focus continues to 
be on the colder temperatures and even colder wind chills. As 
mentioned previously, parts of the area could see wind chills as 
cold as -30 below zero by Sunday morning which would put us right in 
advisory level criteria. While a cold weather headline will likely 
be needed, we'll need to continue to monitor this period moving 
forward.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1134 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

MVFR ceilings will gradually drift east through the day, but it
will be slow going. Model soundings do indicate the moisture in
this layer becoming more shallow so we may see some breaks by
mid to late afternoon moreso than advecting the entire mass of
stratus east. Otherwise mid level clouds will spread across the
area overnight with a mix of freezing rain and snow expected on
Thursday morning. The better chances for this mix will be near
and north of I-90. Southwest MN will see a better chance for
mainly snow by late morning while east central SD will see a
mix, with maybe more freezing rain thatn snow near and west of
highway 81.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM CST Thursday for 
     SDZ038>040-052>056.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...08