168 FXUS63 KFSD 101742 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 1142 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy flurries remain possible through sunset. - Another quick wave will bring renewed chances for rain, light snow, and a wintry mix from late tonight into Thursday. Accumulations will range from 1-2 inches of snow mainly across southwestern MN and a glaze of ice along a Huron to Sioux Falls to Storm Lake, IA line. While accumulations are expected to be mainly light, minor travel impacts will be possible especially north of I- 90. - Confidence continues to increase in arctic air bringing near advisory level wind chills to the region by this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 355 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 TODAY-THURSDAY: A cooler and breezier day ahead! Taking a look across the area, pockets of lingering flurries to light snow showers continue to progress across the area this morning mainly across areas along and east of I-29. While light accumulations of tenth or two are expected, most this light activity should gradually progress out of the area by late morning. From here, a breezier and cooler day continues as strong northwesterly surface winds gradually decrease during the first half off the day with an approaching a surface high. Temperature-wise, lingering cold air advection (CAA) and persist cloud cover should help our temperatures continue to decrease throughout the day with highs mainly in the 20s to low 30s. Otherwise, our focus will shift northwestwards as another clipper wave ejects into the upper plains from late tonight into Thursday. Initially, precipitation will likely start as light snow across areas west of the James River overnight. However, as warm air advection (WAA) strengthens ahead of a surface warm front by Thursday morning; most of the precipitation will likely transition to a wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow as it gradually progresses southeastwards along a Huron to Sioux Falls to Storm Lake, IA line. While ice accumulations continue to look light with a glaze of ice expected, the combination of wintry mix and snow could create some slicker road conditions along and just south of the Highway-14 corridor during the morning commute. With this in mind, decided to issue a Winter Weather Advisory from 6 am to 3 pm on Thursday for the previously outlined areas. From here, things will continue to gradually progress southeastwards into the early afternoon with the main focus being snow in southwestern MN. Looking at HREF guidance, snowfall rates of 0.25" to 0.50" in/hr will be possible through late afternoon which could lead to quick accumulations of 1-2 inches along and east of the Buffalo Ridge. Lastly, should see snow begin to taper off eastwards into the early evening. THE WEEKEND: Heading into the weekend, mostly quiet conditions are expected for most of the day on Friday. However, this will be short- lived as another mid-level clipper swings through the area from Friday night into Saturday bringing renewed chances for snow. While amounts are still uncertain at this time, ensemble guidance continues to show moderate to high confidence (50%-70%) in at least 1 inch of snow across most areas. Otherwise, the focus continues to be on the colder temperatures and even colder wind chills. As mentioned previously, parts of the area could see wind chills as cold as -30 below zero by Sunday morning which would put us right in advisory level criteria. While a cold weather headline will likely be needed, we'll need to continue to monitor this period moving forward. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1134 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 MVFR ceilings will gradually drift east through the day, but it will be slow going. Model soundings do indicate the moisture in this layer becoming more shallow so we may see some breaks by mid to late afternoon moreso than advecting the entire mass of stratus east. Otherwise mid level clouds will spread across the area overnight with a mix of freezing rain and snow expected on Thursday morning. The better chances for this mix will be near and north of I-90. Southwest MN will see a better chance for mainly snow by late morning while east central SD will see a mix, with maybe more freezing rain thatn snow near and west of highway 81. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM CST Thursday for SDZ038>040-052>056. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...05 AVIATION...08