519 
FXUS63 KAPX 050743
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
243 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Southwest flow lake effect snow will continue today, resulting in 
1 to 4 inches of snow over parts of Emmet, Mackinac, and Chippewa 
counties 

- Widespread 1 to 3 inches of snow will be seen over areas of NW 
lower tonight

- Times of snow will continue through the weekend for most of 
northern MI 

- Cold overnight low temperatures Sunday night into Monday

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 223 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

Currently, surface observations are showing south to southwest wind 
gusts becoming more frequent over the upper penisula and coastal 
areas of northern lower. This has allowed surface temperatures to 
begin trending up, with interior areas of northern lower back into 
the teens (KGOV dropping below 0F last night). Winds should peak 
around sunrise this morning, then the surface gradient will relax 
during the day today - allowing winds to gradually weaken. However, 
coastal areas of northern lower, the tip of the mitt, and western 
Mackinac will continue to see gusts up to 20 to 25 mph through late 
Saturday. 

Zooming out quick, broad troughing over most of the CONUS has placed 
quasi-zonal flow aloft over northern MI today. Under this set up, 
surface features have been able to slide down the Canadian plains 
and into the northern US rockies and plains. A weaker surface low 
has pushed up against a surface high to the east of MI, resulting in 
a ~10 mb surface gradient this morning over the state. Heavier lake 
effect snow showers will begin shortly within these stronger wind 
fields (which will continue through this morning). Once the gradient 
slackens these snow showers will weaken and become more transient. 
Newest guidance also suggests that the focus of the showers will 
transition to northern lower this afternoon, as the DGZ over eastern 
upper breifly trends drier. Even though intensity of snow showers 
will trend down starting around midday, a localized heavier band or 
two could still be impacting Emmet county through the afternoon. The 
winter weather advisory was extended to reflects these thoughts for 
Emmet county. All in all, Snow totals for today are generally 2 to 4 
inches with locally higher up to 5 to 6". Most of this is being 
forced in the low levels, and lacking aid from the mid/upper levels, 
leading to only the localized areas seeing higher amounts. Times of 
heavier snow and blowing snow will lead to spots of visibility 
reductions. 

This afternoon and evening, weaker surface troughing over southern 
MN/WI will approaching MI. This will continue those southwest gusts 
up to 25 mph over the coastal Lk MI locations into tonight. It will 
also rotate an embedded upper shortwave in with it, which helps 
bring mid and upper level dynamics into play (adding slight aid in 
lifting). Widespread light snow over more of NW lower will seen as 
these features approach and move through. Some lake enhancement 
could allow for times of moderate snowfall. Amounts will generally 
remain around 1-3 inches over most areas of NW lower. As always with 
lake effect/enhanced snow, some localized higher amounts are 
possible with this snowfall tonight. Guidance is starting to 
highlight a potential for areas near, west, and south of Grand 
Traverse Bay to see 1-3" more in these localized areas. 

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 223 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

Winds transition to northwest behind the weaker boundary early 
Saturday, and will carry some NW lake effect snow showers inland 
over northern lower and eastern upper. Intermittent snow showers 
will continue for parts of eastern upper through the weekend. 
Gradients slacken over northern lower later on Saturday as a surface 
cyclonic moves northward up the plain. The cyclone passes to the 
south, with surface winds turning east but remaining light early 
Sunday. Widespread light snow will be seen over most of northern 
lower. Depending on the track, brief moderate snow could be seen 
over the southern tier of counties in the CWA, however current 
guidance isn't favoring that (ensemble guidance keeping all 24hr 
snowfall under 3" for KMBL on Sunday). 

Late Sunday into Monday, a ~1030mb surface high will slide down the 
northern plains, moving over MI early Monday morning. North-
northwest winds could generate some brief moderate to heavy lake 
effect snow showers over Grand Traverse Bay and areas south & west. 
This should be short lived as the surface high builds in quickly 
Monday morning. This colder airmass will allow for cold 
temperatures over interior northern lower and eastern upper early 
Monday morning. Some guidance puts KGOV down into the -10F to -5F 
range. With winds being more NNW, its unlikely that clouds will 
impact temperatures dropping for typically cold inland locations. 
This results in a higher confidence forecast for these cold 
temperatures Sunday night into Monday morning. 

The next system moves in around mid week next week, and could result 
in some larger snow amounts from synoptic system. 

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1229 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

Worsening conditions late tonight CIU/PLN. Sw flow lake-
enhanced snow will develop and increase in coverage/intensity 
over eastern upper and far northern lower MI. Expect CIU to
become IFR late tonight, and PLN Friday morning, in falling and
blowing snow. Conditions improve to MVFR in the afternoon.

For TVC/APN/MBL, VFR tonight, becoming MVFR cigs/vsbys with 
light snow on Friday. 

S to sw winds become blustery late tonight. Winds diminish a 
bit Friday afternoon.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 3 PM EST 
     this afternoon for MIZ016.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for 
     MIZ017-086>088-095-096-098.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 11 AM EST this morning for LHZ345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for 
     LHZ346>348.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Saturday for LHZ349.
     Gale Warning until 11 AM EST this morning for LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.
     Gale Warning until 11 AM EST this morning for LSZ321.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Saturday for LSZ322.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ELD
LONG TERM...ELD
AVIATION...JZ

870 
FXUS63 KAPX 050745 CCA
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
243 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Southwest flow lake effect snow will continue today, resulting in 
1 to 4 inches of snow over parts of Emmet, Mackinac, and Chippewa 
counties 

- Widespread 1 to 3 inches of snow will be seen over areas of NW 
lower tonight

- Times of snow will continue through the weekend for most of 
northern MI 

- Cold overnight low temperatures Sunday night into Monday

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 223 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

Currently, surface observations are showing south to southwest wind 
gusts becoming more frequent over the upper penisula and coastal 
areas of northern lower. This has allowed surface temperatures to 
begin trending up, with interior areas of northern lower back into 
the teens (KGOV dropping below 0F last night). Winds should peak 
around sunrise this morning, then the surface gradient will relax 
during the day today - allowing winds to gradually weaken. However, 
coastal areas of northern lower, the tip of the mitt, and western 
Mackinac will continue to see gusts up to 20 to 25 mph through late 
Saturday. 

Zooming out quick, broad troughing over most of the CONUS has placed 
quasi-zonal flow aloft over northern MI today. Under this set up, 
surface features have been able to slide down the Canadian plains 
and into the northern US rockies and plains. A weaker surface low 
has pushed up against a surface high to the east of MI, resulting in 
a ~10 mb surface gradient this morning over the state. Heavier lake 
effect snow showers will begin shortly within these stronger wind 
fields (which will continue through this morning). Once the gradient 
slackens these snow showers will weaken and become more transient. 
Newest guidance also suggests that the focus of the showers will 
transition to northern lower this afternoon, as the DGZ over eastern 
upper breifly trends drier. Even though intensity of snow showers 
will trend down starting around midday, a localized heavier band or 
two could still be impacting Emmet county through the afternoon. The 
winter weather advisory was extended to reflects these thoughts for 
Emmet county. All in all, Snow totals for today are generally 2 to 4 
inches with locally higher up to 5 to 6". Most of this is being 
forced in the low levels, and lacking aid from the mid/upper levels, 
leading to only the localized areas seeing higher amounts. Times of 
heavier snow and blowing snow will lead to spots of visibility 
reductions. 

This afternoon and evening, weaker surface troughing over southern 
MN/WI will approach MI. This will continue those southwest gusts up 
to 25 mph over the coastal Lk MI locations into tonight. It will 
also rotate an embedded upper shortwave in with it, which helps 
bring mid and upper level dynamics into play (adding slight aid in 
lifting). Widespread light snow over more of NW lower will seen as 
these features approach and move through. Some lake enhancement 
could allow for times of moderate snowfall. Amounts will generally 
remain around 1-3 inches over most areas of NW lower. As always with 
lake effect/enhanced snow, some localized higher amounts are 
possible with this snowfall tonight. Guidance is starting to 
highlight a potential for areas near, west, and south of Grand 
Traverse Bay to see 1-3" more in these localized areas. 

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 223 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

Winds transition to northwest behind the weaker boundary early 
Saturday, and will carry some NW lake effect snow showers inland 
over northern lower and eastern upper. Intermittent snow showers 
will continue for parts of eastern upper through the weekend. 
Gradients slacken over northern lower later on Saturday as a surface 
cyclonic moves northward up the plain. The cyclone passes to the 
south, with surface winds turning east but remaining light early 
Sunday. Widespread light snow will be seen over most of northern 
lower. Depending on the track, brief moderate snow could be seen 
over the southern tier of counties in the CWA, however current 
guidance isn't favoring that (ensemble guidance keeping all 24hr 
snowfall under 3" for KMBL on Sunday). 

Late Sunday into Monday, a ~1030mb surface high will slide down the 
northern plains, moving over MI early Monday morning. North-
northwest winds could generate some brief moderate to heavy lake 
effect snow showers over Grand Traverse Bay and areas south & west. 
This should be short lived as the surface high builds in quickly 
Monday morning. This colder airmass will allow for cold 
temperatures over interior northern lower and eastern upper early 
Monday morning. Some guidance puts KGOV down into the -10F to -5F 
range. With winds being more NNW, its unlikely that clouds will 
impact temperatures dropping for typically cold inland locations. 
This results in a higher confidence forecast for these cold 
temperatures Sunday night into Monday morning. 

The next system moves in around mid week next week, and could result 
in some larger snow amounts from synoptic system. 

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1229 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

Worsening conditions late tonight CIU/PLN. Sw flow lake-
enhanced snow will develop and increase in coverage/intensity 
over eastern upper and far northern lower MI. Expect CIU to
become IFR late tonight, and PLN Friday morning, in falling and
blowing snow. Conditions improve to MVFR in the afternoon.

For TVC/APN/MBL, VFR tonight, becoming MVFR cigs/vsbys with 
light snow on Friday. 

S to sw winds become blustery late tonight. Winds diminish a 
bit Friday afternoon.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 3 PM EST 
     this afternoon for MIZ016.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for 
     MIZ017-086>088-095-096-098.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 11 AM EST this morning for LHZ345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for 
     LHZ346>348.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Saturday for LHZ349.
     Gale Warning until 11 AM EST this morning for LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.
     Gale Warning until 11 AM EST this morning for LSZ321.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Saturday for LSZ322.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ELD
LONG TERM...ELD
AVIATION...JZ

248 
FXUS63 KAPX 050751 CCA
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
243 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Southwest flow lake effect snow will continue today, resulting in 
slick roads and blowing snow over parts of Emmet, 
Cheboygan, Mackinac, and Chippewa counties 

- Widespread 1 to 3 inches of snow will be seen over areas of NW 
lower tonight, with the possibility of locally higher amounts

- Times of snow will continue through the weekend for most of 
northern MI 

- Cold overnight low temperatures Sunday night into Monday

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 223 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

Currently, surface observations are showing south to southwest wind 
gusts becoming more frequent over the upper penisula and coastal 
areas of northern lower. This has allowed surface temperatures to 
begin trending up, with interior areas of northern lower back into 
the teens (KGOV dropping below 0F last night). Winds should peak 
around sunrise this morning, then the surface gradient will relax 
during the day today - allowing winds to gradually weaken. However, 
coastal areas of northern lower, the tip of the mitt, and western 
Mackinac will continue to see gusts up to 20 to 25 mph through late 
Saturday. 

Zooming out quick, broad troughing over most of the CONUS has placed 
quasi-zonal flow aloft over northern MI today. Under this set up, 
surface features have been able to slide down the Canadian plains 
and into the northern US rockies and plains. A weaker surface low 
has pushed up against a surface high to the east of MI, resulting in 
a ~10 mb surface gradient this morning over the state. Heavier lake 
effect snow showers will begin shortly within these stronger wind 
fields (which will continue through this morning). Once the gradient 
slackens these snow showers will weaken and become more transient. 
Newest guidance also suggests that the focus of the showers will 
transition to northern lower this afternoon, as the DGZ over eastern 
upper breifly trends drier. Even though intensity of snow showers 
will trend down starting around midday, a localized heavier band or 
two could still be impacting Emmet county through the afternoon. The 
winter weather advisory was extended to reflects these thoughts for 
Emmet county. All in all, Snow totals for today are generally 2 to 4 
inches with locally higher up to 5 to 6". Most of this is being 
forced in the low levels, and lacking aid from the mid/upper levels, 
leading to only the localized areas seeing higher amounts. Times of 
heavier snow and blowing snow will lead to spots of visibility 
reductions. 

This afternoon and evening, weaker surface troughing over southern 
MN/WI will approach MI. This will continue those southwest gusts up 
to 25 mph over the coastal Lk MI locations into tonight. It will 
also rotate an embedded upper shortwave in with it, which helps 
bring mid and upper level dynamics into play (adding slight aid in 
lifting). Widespread light snow over more of NW lower will seen as 
these features approach and move through. Some lake enhancement 
could allow for times of moderate snowfall. Amounts will generally 
remain around 1-3 inches over most areas of NW lower. As always with 
lake effect/enhanced snow, some localized higher amounts are 
possible with this snowfall tonight. Guidance is starting to 
highlight a potential for areas near, west, and south of Grand 
Traverse Bay to see 1-3" more in these localized areas. 

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 223 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

Winds transition to northwest behind the weaker boundary early 
Saturday, and will carry some NW lake effect snow showers inland 
over northern lower and eastern upper. Intermittent snow showers 
will continue for parts of eastern upper through the weekend. 
Gradients slacken over northern lower later on Saturday as a surface 
cyclonic moves northward up the plain. The cyclone passes to the 
south, with surface winds turning east but remaining light early 
Sunday. Widespread light snow will be seen over most of northern 
lower. Depending on the track, brief moderate snow could be seen 
over the southern tier of counties in the CWA, however current 
guidance isn't favoring that (ensemble guidance keeping all 24hr 
snowfall under 3" for KMBL on Sunday). 

Late Sunday into Monday, a ~1030mb surface high will slide down the 
northern plains, moving over MI early Monday morning. North-
northwest winds could generate some brief moderate to heavy lake 
effect snow showers over Grand Traverse Bay and areas south & west. 
This should be short lived as the surface high builds in quickly 
Monday morning. This colder airmass will allow for cold 
temperatures over interior northern lower and eastern upper early 
Monday morning. Some guidance puts KGOV down into the -10F to -5F 
range. With winds being more NNW, its unlikely that clouds will 
impact temperatures dropping for typically cold inland locations. 
This results in a higher confidence forecast for these cold 
temperatures Sunday night into Monday morning. 

The next system moves in around mid week next week, and could result 
in some larger snow amounts from synoptic system. 

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1229 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

Worsening conditions late tonight CIU/PLN. Sw flow lake-
enhanced snow will develop and increase in coverage/intensity 
over eastern upper and far northern lower MI. Expect CIU to
become IFR late tonight, and PLN Friday morning, in falling and
blowing snow. Conditions improve to MVFR in the afternoon.

For TVC/APN/MBL, VFR tonight, becoming MVFR cigs/vsbys with 
light snow on Friday. 

S to sw winds become blustery late tonight. Winds diminish a 
bit Friday afternoon.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 3 PM EST 
     this afternoon for MIZ016.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for 
     MIZ017-086>088-095-096-098.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 11 AM EST this morning for LHZ345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for 
     LHZ346>348.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Saturday for LHZ349.
     Gale Warning until 11 AM EST this morning for LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.
     Gale Warning until 11 AM EST this morning for LSZ321.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Saturday for LSZ322.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ELD
LONG TERM...ELD
AVIATION...JZ