519 FXUS63 KAPX 050743 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 243 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Southwest flow lake effect snow will continue today, resulting in 1 to 4 inches of snow over parts of Emmet, Mackinac, and Chippewa counties - Widespread 1 to 3 inches of snow will be seen over areas of NW lower tonight - Times of snow will continue through the weekend for most of northern MI - Cold overnight low temperatures Sunday night into Monday && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 223 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025 Currently, surface observations are showing south to southwest wind gusts becoming more frequent over the upper penisula and coastal areas of northern lower. This has allowed surface temperatures to begin trending up, with interior areas of northern lower back into the teens (KGOV dropping below 0F last night). Winds should peak around sunrise this morning, then the surface gradient will relax during the day today - allowing winds to gradually weaken. However, coastal areas of northern lower, the tip of the mitt, and western Mackinac will continue to see gusts up to 20 to 25 mph through late Saturday. Zooming out quick, broad troughing over most of the CONUS has placed quasi-zonal flow aloft over northern MI today. Under this set up, surface features have been able to slide down the Canadian plains and into the northern US rockies and plains. A weaker surface low has pushed up against a surface high to the east of MI, resulting in a ~10 mb surface gradient this morning over the state. Heavier lake effect snow showers will begin shortly within these stronger wind fields (which will continue through this morning). Once the gradient slackens these snow showers will weaken and become more transient. Newest guidance also suggests that the focus of the showers will transition to northern lower this afternoon, as the DGZ over eastern upper breifly trends drier. Even though intensity of snow showers will trend down starting around midday, a localized heavier band or two could still be impacting Emmet county through the afternoon. The winter weather advisory was extended to reflects these thoughts for Emmet county. All in all, Snow totals for today are generally 2 to 4 inches with locally higher up to 5 to 6". Most of this is being forced in the low levels, and lacking aid from the mid/upper levels, leading to only the localized areas seeing higher amounts. Times of heavier snow and blowing snow will lead to spots of visibility reductions. This afternoon and evening, weaker surface troughing over southern MN/WI will approaching MI. This will continue those southwest gusts up to 25 mph over the coastal Lk MI locations into tonight. It will also rotate an embedded upper shortwave in with it, which helps bring mid and upper level dynamics into play (adding slight aid in lifting). Widespread light snow over more of NW lower will seen as these features approach and move through. Some lake enhancement could allow for times of moderate snowfall. Amounts will generally remain around 1-3 inches over most areas of NW lower. As always with lake effect/enhanced snow, some localized higher amounts are possible with this snowfall tonight. Guidance is starting to highlight a potential for areas near, west, and south of Grand Traverse Bay to see 1-3" more in these localized areas. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 223 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025 Winds transition to northwest behind the weaker boundary early Saturday, and will carry some NW lake effect snow showers inland over northern lower and eastern upper. Intermittent snow showers will continue for parts of eastern upper through the weekend. Gradients slacken over northern lower later on Saturday as a surface cyclonic moves northward up the plain. The cyclone passes to the south, with surface winds turning east but remaining light early Sunday. Widespread light snow will be seen over most of northern lower. Depending on the track, brief moderate snow could be seen over the southern tier of counties in the CWA, however current guidance isn't favoring that (ensemble guidance keeping all 24hr snowfall under 3" for KMBL on Sunday). Late Sunday into Monday, a ~1030mb surface high will slide down the northern plains, moving over MI early Monday morning. North- northwest winds could generate some brief moderate to heavy lake effect snow showers over Grand Traverse Bay and areas south & west. This should be short lived as the surface high builds in quickly Monday morning. This colder airmass will allow for cold temperatures over interior northern lower and eastern upper early Monday morning. Some guidance puts KGOV down into the -10F to -5F range. With winds being more NNW, its unlikely that clouds will impact temperatures dropping for typically cold inland locations. This results in a higher confidence forecast for these cold temperatures Sunday night into Monday morning. The next system moves in around mid week next week, and could result in some larger snow amounts from synoptic system. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1229 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025 Worsening conditions late tonight CIU/PLN. Sw flow lake- enhanced snow will develop and increase in coverage/intensity over eastern upper and far northern lower MI. Expect CIU to become IFR late tonight, and PLN Friday morning, in falling and blowing snow. Conditions improve to MVFR in the afternoon. For TVC/APN/MBL, VFR tonight, becoming MVFR cigs/vsbys with light snow on Friday. S to sw winds become blustery late tonight. Winds diminish a bit Friday afternoon. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 3 PM EST this afternoon for MIZ016. Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for MIZ017-086>088-095-096-098. MARINE...Gale Warning until 11 AM EST this morning for LHZ345. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for LHZ346>348. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Saturday for LHZ349. Gale Warning until 11 AM EST this morning for LMZ323-341-342- 344>346. Gale Warning until 11 AM EST this morning for LSZ321. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Saturday for LSZ322. && $$ SHORT TERM...ELD LONG TERM...ELD AVIATION...JZ