871 
FXUS62 KJAX 290103
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
803 PM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

...NEW: UPDATE and AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Elevated Fire Danger Conditions Today. Be Very Cautious with
  Outdoor Fires Check for Local Burn Bans as Severe to Extreme Drought
  Conditions Continue at Inland Locations.

- Freeze Warning for inland areas of southeast GA and portions
  of northeast FL, mainly the Suwannee Valley. Areas of frost
  likely developing by midnight. 

- High Risk for Rip Currents at area Beaches Saturday

- Beneficial Rainfall Expected Monday Night through Tuesday. Strong
  Thunderstorm Potential on Tuesday

&&

.UPDATE...

A seasonable chill in the air tonight as high pressure to the 
north gradually moves closer to the Mid Atlantic region. In 
response to the movement, a moistening return flow off the 
Atlantic will develop overnight. Before those breezes arrive, 
light to calm conditions under mostly clear skies will allow 
temperatures to quickly drop. Many areas are already in the low 
40s and some in the upper 30s as of 730 PM. 

The rapid temperature decrease, light to calm wind, and low 
dewpoints will lead to a broader light freeze area tonight. As 
such the Freeze Warning has been expanded east to the I-95 
corridor in southeast GA and into the Suwannee Valley in 
northeast FL. Sub- freezing temps are most likely for locations 
north of Gainesville and west of Jacksonville tonight. The 
northeasterly flow off the ocean will keep coastal temperatures 
about as warm as last night, if not a degree or three warmer, as
lows bottom out in the low to mid 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...

Northerly winds will decrease through the night with winds 
veering northeasterly before day break. A developing coastal 
trough will build up a stratocumulus deck late tonight, reaching
KSGJ around 08z-10z. The lower cloud deck (2.5-3.5 kft) will 
gradually progress northward and inland and reach all coastal 
airfields along the I-95 corridor by 13z. This may lead to 
periods of MVFR ceilings throughout the day. Prevailing winds 
will favor a northeasterly direction with gusts 15-20 knots. 
Gusts should trail off, becoming more intermittent, after 21z.

&&

.MARINE...


High pressure to the northwest Today, will become centered to the 
north Tonight, then northeast on Saturday. The high will track away 
Saturday night into Sunday, as weak troughing develops over the 
coastal waters. An area of low pressure will lift northeast out of 
the Gulf Monday into Monday night, with its cold front moving 
southeast across local area Tuesday into Tuesday night. High 
pressure will build behind this system for mid week.

Rip Currents: SE GA Moderate Saturday
              NE FL High Saturday

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

 ...AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS ON SATURDAY...

Moisture will recover Saturday as high pressure shifts more to 
the northeast near the Mid Atlantic coast with breezy northeast 
winds turning easterly and breezy by afternoon 10-15 with gusts 
to 25 mph, but with min RH levels above critical levels. 
Increasing surface and transport winds will create areas of high
daytime dispersions. Sunday, light easterly winds will turn 
south to southwesterly further inland as a cold front approaches
from the west. Weaker surface and transport winds will produce 
fair dispersions. Chances for showers will increase Monday as a 
cold front stalls across the area. Tuesday, a stronger storm 
system will bring the potential for isolated strong T'storms 
with a wetting rainfall across most of the area. 

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...A light freeze expected tonight 
into early Saturday morning across inland southeast Georgia and Suwannee
Valley. Areas of frost likely on fine, unsheltered fuels.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
AMG  28  62  43  73 /   0   0   0  10 
SSI  43  65  53  72 /   0   0  10  10 
JAX  36  68  51  78 /   0  10   0  10 
SGJ  45  70  59  77 /   0  10  10  10 
GNV  36  71  51  81 /   0   0   0  10 
OCF 38 72 53 80 / 0 0 0 10 

&&

$$