871 FXUS62 KJAX 290103 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 803 PM EST Fri Nov 28 2025 ...NEW: UPDATE and AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Elevated Fire Danger Conditions Today. Be Very Cautious with Outdoor Fires Check for Local Burn Bans as Severe to Extreme Drought Conditions Continue at Inland Locations. - Freeze Warning for inland areas of southeast GA and portions of northeast FL, mainly the Suwannee Valley. Areas of frost likely developing by midnight. - High Risk for Rip Currents at area Beaches Saturday - Beneficial Rainfall Expected Monday Night through Tuesday. Strong Thunderstorm Potential on Tuesday && .UPDATE... A seasonable chill in the air tonight as high pressure to the north gradually moves closer to the Mid Atlantic region. In response to the movement, a moistening return flow off the Atlantic will develop overnight. Before those breezes arrive, light to calm conditions under mostly clear skies will allow temperatures to quickly drop. Many areas are already in the low 40s and some in the upper 30s as of 730 PM. The rapid temperature decrease, light to calm wind, and low dewpoints will lead to a broader light freeze area tonight. As such the Freeze Warning has been expanded east to the I-95 corridor in southeast GA and into the Suwannee Valley in northeast FL. Sub- freezing temps are most likely for locations north of Gainesville and west of Jacksonville tonight. The northeasterly flow off the ocean will keep coastal temperatures about as warm as last night, if not a degree or three warmer, as lows bottom out in the low to mid 40s. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Northerly winds will decrease through the night with winds veering northeasterly before day break. A developing coastal trough will build up a stratocumulus deck late tonight, reaching KSGJ around 08z-10z. The lower cloud deck (2.5-3.5 kft) will gradually progress northward and inland and reach all coastal airfields along the I-95 corridor by 13z. This may lead to periods of MVFR ceilings throughout the day. Prevailing winds will favor a northeasterly direction with gusts 15-20 knots. Gusts should trail off, becoming more intermittent, after 21z. && .MARINE... High pressure to the northwest Today, will become centered to the north Tonight, then northeast on Saturday. The high will track away Saturday night into Sunday, as weak troughing develops over the coastal waters. An area of low pressure will lift northeast out of the Gulf Monday into Monday night, with its cold front moving southeast across local area Tuesday into Tuesday night. High pressure will build behind this system for mid week. Rip Currents: SE GA Moderate Saturday NE FL High Saturday && .FIRE WEATHER... ...AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS ON SATURDAY... Moisture will recover Saturday as high pressure shifts more to the northeast near the Mid Atlantic coast with breezy northeast winds turning easterly and breezy by afternoon 10-15 with gusts to 25 mph, but with min RH levels above critical levels. Increasing surface and transport winds will create areas of high daytime dispersions. Sunday, light easterly winds will turn south to southwesterly further inland as a cold front approaches from the west. Weaker surface and transport winds will produce fair dispersions. Chances for showers will increase Monday as a cold front stalls across the area. Tuesday, a stronger storm system will bring the potential for isolated strong T'storms with a wetting rainfall across most of the area. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...A light freeze expected tonight into early Saturday morning across inland southeast Georgia and Suwannee Valley. Areas of frost likely on fine, unsheltered fuels. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... AMG 28 62 43 73 / 0 0 0 10 SSI 43 65 53 72 / 0 0 10 10 JAX 36 68 51 78 / 0 10 0 10 SGJ 45 70 59 77 / 0 10 10 10 GNV 36 71 51 81 / 0 0 0 10 OCF 38 72 53 80 / 0 0 0 10 && $$