800 
FXUS61 KCLE 221920
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
220 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure departs as low pressure passes north of the 
local area on Sunday. High pressure returns Sunday night into Monday 
before a potent low pressure system moves through the Great Lakes 
region through the middle of the week. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Dry conditions continue tonight under the ridge of high 
pressure with overnight lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s. The
ridge will push to east as an upper trough moves east across 
the Great Lakes region. The upper trough will be accompanied by 
a weak surface cold front that will push east across the local 
area on Sunday. Both of these features should provide enough 
support for a chance of rain/snow, primarily across extreme 
portions of Northeast Ohio into Northwest Pennsylvania early 
Sunday morning. Rain/snow will transition to all rain after 
sunrise on Sunday and will gradually diminish through Sunday 
afternoon as another area of high pressure builds into the Ohio 
Valley. Northwesterly winds may gust as high as 20-25 MPH at 
times Sunday afternoon as lapse rates steepen behind the front. 
High temperatures in the mid 40s to low 50s Sunday afternoon 
with overnight lows Sunday night falling into the upper 20s 
areawide. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure will slowly push east through the short term 
period with dry weather expected through Monday evening. The next 
system will approach the region from the west Monday night. The 
surface low looks to track north-northeast from the Central Plains 
into the Northern Great Lakes Monday night into Tuesday. Expect for 
minimal impacts outside of some rain showers entering western zones 
on Monday night. The main impacts come on Tuesday as more widespread 
rain showers are expected across the region with total rainfall
amounts through Tuesday night of 0.25-0.50". High temperatures 
will warm to above normal values Monday and Tuesday in the upper
40s to mid 50s. 

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The aforementioned potent low pressure system is expected to drag a 
strong cold front across the area on Wednesday, ushering in a much 
cooler pattern through the long term and the Thanksgiving holiday 
weekend. As the front pushes east any remaining rain showers will 
transition to snow while surface winds and wind gusts increase along 
the front. There is increasing potential for accumulating lake
effect snowfall to develop across the eastern Great Lakes behind
the cold front early Thursday. Still a fair amount of 
uncertainty when it comes to overall snowfall amounts and lake 
effect snow band placement with this system. Will continue to 
monitor the evolution of the system and lake effect snow 
potential during this timeframe given the heightened impact on 
holiday travel. It will be cooler through the long term behind
the cold front with highs in the low to mid 30s each afternoon 
and overnight lows dropping into the upper teens to lower 20s. 

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
Mainly VFR is expected through the TAF cycle, with the pockets
of MVFR currently affecting KCLE, KMFD, and KCAK expected to
scatter out by mid afternoon. A fast moving clipper system will
pass through the northern Great Lakes tonight and through the
eastern Great Lakes Sunday. This will lift a warm front across
the area this evening before the trailing cold front quickly 
sweeps east through all terminals Sunday morning. Mainly dry
conditions are expected, although cannot rule out a few light
showers or sprinkles at KERI between 06 and 12Z, but confidence
was not high enough to put in the TAF. The main impact will be
wind shifts. Winds will become light SW this evening behind the
warm front before quickly veering to W to WNW Sunday morning
behind the cold front and increasing to 10-15 knots. Gusts of
20-25 knots are likely at times through the day Sunday.

Outlook...VFR is favored through Monday before non-VFR chances 
return Monday night through Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Active marine conditions will return to Lake Erie Sunday as a 
clipper system moves from the northern Great Lakes tonight through 
the eastern Great Lakes by Sunday afternoon. Light and variable 
winds this evening will become SW and increase to 10-15 knots behind 
a warm front tonight, before quickly turning W and further 
increasing to 15-25 knots Sunday morning behind the cold front. W to 
WNW winds of 15-25 knots are expected to continue through the day, 
diminishing to 5-10 knots Sunday night while turning NW. We hoisted 
Small Craft Advisories beginning at 10Z Sunday from Vermilion to 
Geneva and 12Z from The Islands to Vermilion, as well as from Geneva 
to Ripley. Winds will diminish faster between the Islands and 
Vermilion, so this will be a short headline, expiring at 18Z Sunday 
there, but the longer lasting winds and waves farther east will keep 
the headline going through 03Z Monday from Vermilion to Geneva and 
05Z Monday from Geneva to Ripley. Wave heights will peak at 4 to 8 
feet late Sunday morning through the afternoon in the central and 
eastern basins. 

The lighter winds Sunday night will continue through Monday, but 
becoming S as high pressure shifts from the Ohio Valley to the Mid 
Atlantic coast. These S winds will increase to 10-20 knots Monday 
night and Tuesday as low pressure lifts into the Upper Midwest. This 
low will continue to deepen Tuesday night and Wednesday as it lifts 
into the northern Great Lakes. This system will drag down arctic air 
later Wednesday through Thanksgiving Day, so it will be a 
dynamic system with alot of wind. Gales are possible Wednesday 
into Thursday. At this time, have SW winds increasing to 15-25 
knots Tuesday night becoming WSW at 20-30 knots Wednesday 
through Thursday. The period of stronger winds will be fine 
tuned in the coming days.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 1 PM EST Sunday for LEZ144.
     Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 10 PM EST Sunday for 
     LEZ145>147.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Sunday to midnight EST Sunday 
     night for LEZ148-149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...13
NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...Garuckas
MARINE...Garuckas