800 FXUS61 KCLE 221920 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 220 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A ridge of high pressure departs as low pressure passes north of the local area on Sunday. High pressure returns Sunday night into Monday before a potent low pressure system moves through the Great Lakes region through the middle of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Dry conditions continue tonight under the ridge of high pressure with overnight lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s. The ridge will push to east as an upper trough moves east across the Great Lakes region. The upper trough will be accompanied by a weak surface cold front that will push east across the local area on Sunday. Both of these features should provide enough support for a chance of rain/snow, primarily across extreme portions of Northeast Ohio into Northwest Pennsylvania early Sunday morning. Rain/snow will transition to all rain after sunrise on Sunday and will gradually diminish through Sunday afternoon as another area of high pressure builds into the Ohio Valley. Northwesterly winds may gust as high as 20-25 MPH at times Sunday afternoon as lapse rates steepen behind the front. High temperatures in the mid 40s to low 50s Sunday afternoon with overnight lows Sunday night falling into the upper 20s areawide. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Surface high pressure will slowly push east through the short term period with dry weather expected through Monday evening. The next system will approach the region from the west Monday night. The surface low looks to track north-northeast from the Central Plains into the Northern Great Lakes Monday night into Tuesday. Expect for minimal impacts outside of some rain showers entering western zones on Monday night. The main impacts come on Tuesday as more widespread rain showers are expected across the region with total rainfall amounts through Tuesday night of 0.25-0.50". High temperatures will warm to above normal values Monday and Tuesday in the upper 40s to mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The aforementioned potent low pressure system is expected to drag a strong cold front across the area on Wednesday, ushering in a much cooler pattern through the long term and the Thanksgiving holiday weekend. As the front pushes east any remaining rain showers will transition to snow while surface winds and wind gusts increase along the front. There is increasing potential for accumulating lake effect snowfall to develop across the eastern Great Lakes behind the cold front early Thursday. Still a fair amount of uncertainty when it comes to overall snowfall amounts and lake effect snow band placement with this system. Will continue to monitor the evolution of the system and lake effect snow potential during this timeframe given the heightened impact on holiday travel. It will be cooler through the long term behind the cold front with highs in the low to mid 30s each afternoon and overnight lows dropping into the upper teens to lower 20s. && .AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/... Mainly VFR is expected through the TAF cycle, with the pockets of MVFR currently affecting KCLE, KMFD, and KCAK expected to scatter out by mid afternoon. A fast moving clipper system will pass through the northern Great Lakes tonight and through the eastern Great Lakes Sunday. This will lift a warm front across the area this evening before the trailing cold front quickly sweeps east through all terminals Sunday morning. Mainly dry conditions are expected, although cannot rule out a few light showers or sprinkles at KERI between 06 and 12Z, but confidence was not high enough to put in the TAF. The main impact will be wind shifts. Winds will become light SW this evening behind the warm front before quickly veering to W to WNW Sunday morning behind the cold front and increasing to 10-15 knots. Gusts of 20-25 knots are likely at times through the day Sunday. Outlook...VFR is favored through Monday before non-VFR chances return Monday night through Wednesday. && .MARINE... Active marine conditions will return to Lake Erie Sunday as a clipper system moves from the northern Great Lakes tonight through the eastern Great Lakes by Sunday afternoon. Light and variable winds this evening will become SW and increase to 10-15 knots behind a warm front tonight, before quickly turning W and further increasing to 15-25 knots Sunday morning behind the cold front. W to WNW winds of 15-25 knots are expected to continue through the day, diminishing to 5-10 knots Sunday night while turning NW. We hoisted Small Craft Advisories beginning at 10Z Sunday from Vermilion to Geneva and 12Z from The Islands to Vermilion, as well as from Geneva to Ripley. Winds will diminish faster between the Islands and Vermilion, so this will be a short headline, expiring at 18Z Sunday there, but the longer lasting winds and waves farther east will keep the headline going through 03Z Monday from Vermilion to Geneva and 05Z Monday from Geneva to Ripley. Wave heights will peak at 4 to 8 feet late Sunday morning through the afternoon in the central and eastern basins. The lighter winds Sunday night will continue through Monday, but becoming S as high pressure shifts from the Ohio Valley to the Mid Atlantic coast. These S winds will increase to 10-20 knots Monday night and Tuesday as low pressure lifts into the Upper Midwest. This low will continue to deepen Tuesday night and Wednesday as it lifts into the northern Great Lakes. This system will drag down arctic air later Wednesday through Thanksgiving Day, so it will be a dynamic system with alot of wind. Gales are possible Wednesday into Thursday. At this time, have SW winds increasing to 15-25 knots Tuesday night becoming WSW at 20-30 knots Wednesday through Thursday. The period of stronger winds will be fine tuned in the coming days. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 1 PM EST Sunday for LEZ144. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 10 PM EST Sunday for LEZ145>147. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Sunday to midnight EST Sunday night for LEZ148-149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...13 NEAR TERM...13 SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM...13 AVIATION...Garuckas MARINE...Garuckas