033 
FXUS62 KGSP 220609
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
109 AM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm air mass remains in place over our region today with 
decreasing rain chances. Dry but mild high pressure will arrive on 
Sunday and persist into early next week. A moist cold front will 
cross the the area in the middle of the week, ushering in much 
cooler temperatures behind it.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1102 PM Friday: A very active split flow pattern continues to 
dominate the synoptic pattern across the country with perturbed 
northern stream flow draped from the Pacific Northwest to New 
England roughly along the Canadian border. Within the northern 
stream, a lead closed upper low and potent shortwave trough is 
lifting just south of Hudson Bay with a trailing Pacific jet 
extending across British Columbia into Alberta. Farther south, 
within the southern branch, a cutoff closed upper low continues to 
drop across southern California into the Desert Southwest. In 
advance of this feature, a lead dampening shortwave trough is 
quickly lifting across the Ohio Valley and will cross the 
Appalachians through the overnight and early morning hours. A 
sprawling warm sector is apparent in low-level ThetaE fields from 
the Lower Mississippi Valley to the Mid-Atlantic. The passing wave 
and associated speed max translating across the Southern 
Appalachians has allowed for a batch of showers to develop across 
northeast Georgia into the Upstate. This activity will continue to 
push across the area over the next several hours. Otherwise, the 
main focus overnight will be dense fog along the I-40 corridor east 
of the mountains. The ongoing dense fog advisory remains well placed 
and may need to be extended in time based on trends and potentially 
in area should the extent of dense fog expand.

Heading into Saturday, flow will become increasingly zonal as the 
fast moving shortwave quickly shifts offshore. This will keep a 
stalled boundary off to the north as flow will be oriented parallel 
to the front. Clearing skies and plentiful sunshine will result in 
another very warm day for late November with highs soaring into the 
low 70s to low 80s. Several locations will likely set new daily 
record highs as anomalous warmth shows no signs of letting go of its 
grasp across the southeast states. Forcing will be much more 
nebulous, but an isolated or widely scattered shower or two cannot 
be ruled out during afternoon peak heating. By Saturday night, the 
previously mentioned Pacific jet over British Columbia and Alberta 
is progged to dive across the Canadian Prairies and carve out a 
trough over the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes region. 
Increasing northwest flow extending across the Ohio Valley and into 
the Appalachians will finally be the impetus to send the stalled 
boundary across the area as a cold front. This will mainly be a dry 
frontal passage outside of the immediate mountains along the 
Tennessee border.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1220 AM EST Saturday: Dry and cooler high pressure builds into 
the area from the west on Sunday. Cooler is relative as highs will 
still be around 10 degrees above normal. Lows Sunday night do drop 
to near normal across the mountains and nearly 5 degrees above 
normal elsewhere. 

The high moves east on Monday and off shore Mon nite. This sets up a 
southerly flow across the area with increasing clouds and moisture 
late Monday night ahead of an approaching cold front. Mostly sunny 
skies with highs around 5 degrees above normal Monday. Clouds 
increase Monday night but showers should remain west of the area. 
With the clouds and southerly flow, lows rise to around 10 degrees 
above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1250 AM EST Saturday: Guidance is coming together on the cold 
front crossing the area in the Wednesday time frame. A short wave 
ridge starts over the area then moves east Tuesday, but it's still 
strong enough to dampen the initial short wave that rides up the 
ridge into the Great Lakes. A more intact upper low moves across the 
Great Lakes on Wednesday. A series of short waves rotating around 
the move cross the area Wed and early Thu. At the surface, deep 
moisture increases across the area as an initial wave along the 
front moves into the area. With moisture and precip moving in and a 
dry air mass in place across the area, a weak CAD may develop 
Tuesday. The short waves then give the front a push on Wednesday as 
another wave moves along the front and into the area. The 
combination of forcing and deep moisture bring increasing chances of 
showers with this system. 

Some timing differences remain which affects the potential for any 
surface based instability. Still, even the slower guidance has 
little in the way of sbCAPE. The guidance shows the potential for up 
to 200 J/kg of muCAPE with strong shear. That said, the frontal 
position and shear direction don't look great for a high shear/low 
CAPE event. This will continue to be monitored. Guidance is in 
better agreement of the potential for some heavy rainfall, 
especially across the mountains. That said, with the dry antecedent 
conditions, we don't expect widespread hydro issues unless QPF 
response increases a good bit. Precip tapers off Wed nite, but can't 
rule out a brief period of light NW flow snowfall. 

Behind the front, an actual cold air mass moves in as dry high 
pressure builds over the area Thu and Fri. Highs Thu around 5 
degrees below normal across the mountains and near normal elsewhere 
drop a few degrees across the mountains and around 5 degrees below 
normal elsewhere on Friday. Lows fall to 5 to 10 degrees below 
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: A myriad of flight restrictions are ongoing 
and expected to continue through the overnight into the early 
morning hours. An area of dense fog is expected to continue at KHKY 
along with LIFR ceilings. Elsewhere, patchy MVFR ceilings are 
expected to develop overnight with a few instances of IFR not out of 
the question. A batch of showers is also progressing across the 
Upstate, which will push east over the next several hours and 
eventually out of the area. Temporary visibility reductions will be 
possible with any of this activity. Clouds will eventually lift and 
scatter through the morning with all terminals returning to VFR. 
Winds will be gusty through the afternoon ahead of an approaching 
cold front. The passage of the front Saturday night into early 
Sunday morning will bring a subsequent shift to out of the northwest 
along with clearing skies and maintenance of VFR conditions.

Outlook: Drier conditions return early next week, although there 
will remain some potential for mountain valley fog/low stratus each 
morning.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 11-22

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      74 1940     32 1937     57 1934     15 2008    
                                                    1937    
   KCLT      76 2011     38 1929     65 1883     13 2008    
   KGSP      77 2011     38 1937     58 1953     18 1914

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for 
     NCZ035>037-056-057-069-501>506.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...TW
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...TW
CLIMATE...