033 FXUS62 KGSP 220609 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 109 AM EST Sat Nov 22 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A warm air mass remains in place over our region today with decreasing rain chances. Dry but mild high pressure will arrive on Sunday and persist into early next week. A moist cold front will cross the the area in the middle of the week, ushering in much cooler temperatures behind it. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1102 PM Friday: A very active split flow pattern continues to dominate the synoptic pattern across the country with perturbed northern stream flow draped from the Pacific Northwest to New England roughly along the Canadian border. Within the northern stream, a lead closed upper low and potent shortwave trough is lifting just south of Hudson Bay with a trailing Pacific jet extending across British Columbia into Alberta. Farther south, within the southern branch, a cutoff closed upper low continues to drop across southern California into the Desert Southwest. In advance of this feature, a lead dampening shortwave trough is quickly lifting across the Ohio Valley and will cross the Appalachians through the overnight and early morning hours. A sprawling warm sector is apparent in low-level ThetaE fields from the Lower Mississippi Valley to the Mid-Atlantic. The passing wave and associated speed max translating across the Southern Appalachians has allowed for a batch of showers to develop across northeast Georgia into the Upstate. This activity will continue to push across the area over the next several hours. Otherwise, the main focus overnight will be dense fog along the I-40 corridor east of the mountains. The ongoing dense fog advisory remains well placed and may need to be extended in time based on trends and potentially in area should the extent of dense fog expand. Heading into Saturday, flow will become increasingly zonal as the fast moving shortwave quickly shifts offshore. This will keep a stalled boundary off to the north as flow will be oriented parallel to the front. Clearing skies and plentiful sunshine will result in another very warm day for late November with highs soaring into the low 70s to low 80s. Several locations will likely set new daily record highs as anomalous warmth shows no signs of letting go of its grasp across the southeast states. Forcing will be much more nebulous, but an isolated or widely scattered shower or two cannot be ruled out during afternoon peak heating. By Saturday night, the previously mentioned Pacific jet over British Columbia and Alberta is progged to dive across the Canadian Prairies and carve out a trough over the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes region. Increasing northwest flow extending across the Ohio Valley and into the Appalachians will finally be the impetus to send the stalled boundary across the area as a cold front. This will mainly be a dry frontal passage outside of the immediate mountains along the Tennessee border. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 1220 AM EST Saturday: Dry and cooler high pressure builds into the area from the west on Sunday. Cooler is relative as highs will still be around 10 degrees above normal. Lows Sunday night do drop to near normal across the mountains and nearly 5 degrees above normal elsewhere. The high moves east on Monday and off shore Mon nite. This sets up a southerly flow across the area with increasing clouds and moisture late Monday night ahead of an approaching cold front. Mostly sunny skies with highs around 5 degrees above normal Monday. Clouds increase Monday night but showers should remain west of the area. With the clouds and southerly flow, lows rise to around 10 degrees above normal. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1250 AM EST Saturday: Guidance is coming together on the cold front crossing the area in the Wednesday time frame. A short wave ridge starts over the area then moves east Tuesday, but it's still strong enough to dampen the initial short wave that rides up the ridge into the Great Lakes. A more intact upper low moves across the Great Lakes on Wednesday. A series of short waves rotating around the move cross the area Wed and early Thu. At the surface, deep moisture increases across the area as an initial wave along the front moves into the area. With moisture and precip moving in and a dry air mass in place across the area, a weak CAD may develop Tuesday. The short waves then give the front a push on Wednesday as another wave moves along the front and into the area. The combination of forcing and deep moisture bring increasing chances of showers with this system. Some timing differences remain which affects the potential for any surface based instability. Still, even the slower guidance has little in the way of sbCAPE. The guidance shows the potential for up to 200 J/kg of muCAPE with strong shear. That said, the frontal position and shear direction don't look great for a high shear/low CAPE event. This will continue to be monitored. Guidance is in better agreement of the potential for some heavy rainfall, especially across the mountains. That said, with the dry antecedent conditions, we don't expect widespread hydro issues unless QPF response increases a good bit. Precip tapers off Wed nite, but can't rule out a brief period of light NW flow snowfall. Behind the front, an actual cold air mass moves in as dry high pressure builds over the area Thu and Fri. Highs Thu around 5 degrees below normal across the mountains and near normal elsewhere drop a few degrees across the mountains and around 5 degrees below normal elsewhere on Friday. Lows fall to 5 to 10 degrees below normal. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: A myriad of flight restrictions are ongoing and expected to continue through the overnight into the early morning hours. An area of dense fog is expected to continue at KHKY along with LIFR ceilings. Elsewhere, patchy MVFR ceilings are expected to develop overnight with a few instances of IFR not out of the question. A batch of showers is also progressing across the Upstate, which will push east over the next several hours and eventually out of the area. Temporary visibility reductions will be possible with any of this activity. Clouds will eventually lift and scatter through the morning with all terminals returning to VFR. Winds will be gusty through the afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. The passage of the front Saturday night into early Sunday morning will bring a subsequent shift to out of the northwest along with clearing skies and maintenance of VFR conditions. Outlook: Drier conditions return early next week, although there will remain some potential for mountain valley fog/low stratus each morning. && .CLIMATE... RECORDS FOR 11-22 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 74 1940 32 1937 57 1934 15 2008 1937 KCLT 76 2011 38 1929 65 1883 13 2008 KGSP 77 2011 38 1937 58 1953 18 1914 && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for NCZ035>037-056-057-069-501>506. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RWH NEAR TERM...TW SHORT TERM...RWH LONG TERM...RWH AVIATION...TW CLIMATE...