585 
FXUS63 KFGF 262020
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
320 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Windy conditions continue until around sunset, with gusts up
  to 50 mph. 

- High confidence in a soaking rainfall Monday into Tuesday, 
  with a 40% chance for 1 to 2.5 inches.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

...Synopsis...

Southwesterly flow aloft will continue to pick up tonight as
upper ridging moves east. A lead shortwave will start to move
out into the Northern Plains tomorrow, bringing increasing
precipitation chances. The main trough comes out into the Plains
and starts to develop into a split flow Tuesday, with the
main upper low moving well to our south and blocky upper level
ridging over the Upper Midwest. A northern branch shortwave will
dive down out of Canada into the Northern Plains on Thursday,
with the main upper low along the Manitoba/Ontario border by
Friday. Weekend pattern is still in flux with a lot of variation
between the ensemble members, but should be trending towards
northwesterly flow aloft by Sunday.

...Winds this afternoon and evening...

Gusts have been up to around 40 to 42 mph in the Fergus
Falls/Rothsay area, so expanded the wind advisory a bit further
to the southeast. There was one report around 1815Z at
Cooperstown of a gust to 58 mph but given the isolated nature of
the report and has not repeated since, have not upgraded to a
high wind warning. Bufkit soundings for the Red River Valley
counties show good momentum transfer through 5 or even 6 pm, and
could see some pretty high gusts continuing. Have the advisory
going a bit longer, although the western edge may be starting to
come down before sunset. Winds will continue to be quite strong
into tomorrow as the surface trough axis approaches, but not
confident enough to go with a double headline at this point.

...Rain Monday and Tuesday...

With the lead shortwave on Monday and the main trough on
Tuesday, there will be ample moderate synoptic lift for the
early part of the week. There continues to be a good signal for
mesoscale banding as mid-level frontogenesis sets up over
central or eastern ND. CAMs have some pretty high precipitation
totals, and agree that a narrow band of 1.5 to two inches will
be possible. At this point the highest probabilities of over 1
or over 2 inches from the HREF look to be from the western  
Devils Lake Basin into the Langdon area. However, best chances
for heavier rainfall amounts will continue to shift so will
monitor. 

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

Stratus has been lifting north and although KGFK is still
reporting 2500 ft ceilings, should see some improvement there
and at KTVF shortly, as well as KDVL later this afternoon. Winds
continue to gust out of the south at 30 to 35 kts in most
locations and will only slowly drop off during the late
afternoon or evening. More clouds moving in from the west
tonight but mostly mid and high and conditions should remain VFR
until right before the end of the period. At that point, KGFK
and KDVL will see some MVFR ceilings moving in with the later
also having some rain. Winds will continue to be fairly breezy
out of the south and low level wind shear at some locations
overnight and gusts above 20 kts during the day will remain.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for NDZ007-008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
MN...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for MNZ001>005-007-
     008-013>015.
     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for MNZ022-027-029-
     030.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...JR