585 FXUS63 KFGF 262020 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 320 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Windy conditions continue until around sunset, with gusts up to 50 mph. - High confidence in a soaking rainfall Monday into Tuesday, with a 40% chance for 1 to 2.5 inches. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 320 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025 ...Synopsis... Southwesterly flow aloft will continue to pick up tonight as upper ridging moves east. A lead shortwave will start to move out into the Northern Plains tomorrow, bringing increasing precipitation chances. The main trough comes out into the Plains and starts to develop into a split flow Tuesday, with the main upper low moving well to our south and blocky upper level ridging over the Upper Midwest. A northern branch shortwave will dive down out of Canada into the Northern Plains on Thursday, with the main upper low along the Manitoba/Ontario border by Friday. Weekend pattern is still in flux with a lot of variation between the ensemble members, but should be trending towards northwesterly flow aloft by Sunday. ...Winds this afternoon and evening... Gusts have been up to around 40 to 42 mph in the Fergus Falls/Rothsay area, so expanded the wind advisory a bit further to the southeast. There was one report around 1815Z at Cooperstown of a gust to 58 mph but given the isolated nature of the report and has not repeated since, have not upgraded to a high wind warning. Bufkit soundings for the Red River Valley counties show good momentum transfer through 5 or even 6 pm, and could see some pretty high gusts continuing. Have the advisory going a bit longer, although the western edge may be starting to come down before sunset. Winds will continue to be quite strong into tomorrow as the surface trough axis approaches, but not confident enough to go with a double headline at this point. ...Rain Monday and Tuesday... With the lead shortwave on Monday and the main trough on Tuesday, there will be ample moderate synoptic lift for the early part of the week. There continues to be a good signal for mesoscale banding as mid-level frontogenesis sets up over central or eastern ND. CAMs have some pretty high precipitation totals, and agree that a narrow band of 1.5 to two inches will be possible. At this point the highest probabilities of over 1 or over 2 inches from the HREF look to be from the western Devils Lake Basin into the Langdon area. However, best chances for heavier rainfall amounts will continue to shift so will monitor. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025 Stratus has been lifting north and although KGFK is still reporting 2500 ft ceilings, should see some improvement there and at KTVF shortly, as well as KDVL later this afternoon. Winds continue to gust out of the south at 30 to 35 kts in most locations and will only slowly drop off during the late afternoon or evening. More clouds moving in from the west tonight but mostly mid and high and conditions should remain VFR until right before the end of the period. At that point, KGFK and KDVL will see some MVFR ceilings moving in with the later also having some rain. Winds will continue to be fairly breezy out of the south and low level wind shear at some locations overnight and gusts above 20 kts during the day will remain. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for NDZ007-008- 014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054. MN...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for MNZ001>005-007- 008-013>015. Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for MNZ022-027-029- 030. && $$ DISCUSSION...JR AVIATION...JR