211 
FXUS63 KFGF 260947
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
447 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Windy conditions develop today, with wind gusts up to 50 mph
  from the Red River Valley into eastern North Dakota. There is
  a 20% chance for isolated gusts in the 50 to 60 mph range.

- High confidence in a soaking rainfall Monday into Tuesday, 
  with a 40% chance for 1 to 2.5 inches.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 404 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

...Synopsis...

Upper ridging aloft is beginning to build east of our area, with
southwest flow aloft working its way into the Northern Plains
ahead of incoming upper troughing over the Pacific Northwest 
and Northern Rockies. This will allow for one more day of above 
average temperatures today, as well as help drive drive windy 
conditions today, including a 20% chance for 50 to 60 mph gusts.
Upper troughing digs further into the Northern Plains through 
Monday and Tuesday. Sufficient forcing and moisture lends high 
confidence in at least a wetting rainfall within portions of 
eastern Dakotas into Minnesota between Monday and Tuesday. 
Higher end amounts are forecast within this region, including a 
40% chance for 1 to 2.5 inches of rainfall.

...Windy conditions today...

A tightened surface pressure gradient will remain over the
eastern Dakotas into western Minnesota today, with some slight
tightening still yet to occur. Winds will continue to increase
aloft, with around a 50kt low level jet at 850 mb centered over
the Red River Valley this afternoon. These will drive windy
conditions today, with southeast turning south winds 20-30 mph,
gusting to 50 mph forecast.

While cloud cover is forecast to increase from west to east over
eastern ND into Red River Valley, at least some daytime mixing 
is still expected with the help of background flow set by the
tightened pressure gradient. There is, however, still some
uncertainty to the degree of mixing, with deeper mixing leading
to higher gusts. Some local enhancement of southerly winds 
aided by topographic influences are expected, commonly within 
the Red River Valley and Devils Lake basin. 

The uncertainty in boundary layer mixing as well as mesoscale 
influencers help introduce the 20% chance for isolated gusts 50 
to 60 mph. Should wind reach 60 mph, there may be a need for 
upgrade to the Wind Advisory to High Wind Warning as potential 
for impacts ratchet up around this threshold.

...Rainfall Monday and Tuesday...

The aforementioned upper ridge will continue to build north and
east into Canada today, to a point where it cuts itself off as 
strong anticyclone near the southern Hudson Bay region by
Tuesday. While this occurs, upper troughing on the cyclonic 
side of upper jet nosing into the Pacific Northwest will induce 
upper troughing into the central CONUS along with Pacific-
sourced moisture. 

The strong upper anticyclone will promote a block-type pattern,
helping split energy associated with the upper trough into 
interior Canada as well as into the Central Mississippi Valley 
by Tuesday. During this transition, sufficient moisture and 
forcing will produce rainfall within the Dakotas and Minnesota 
Monday and Tuesday. While this splitting of energy will mitigate
overall strength of synoptic forcing, relatively rich moisture 
content along with mesoscale forcing will drive rainfall in 
excess of 0.25 inches, potentially as high as 2.5 inches.

Strong and persistent convergence within the central and 
eastern Dakotas will help focus precipitation near a surface 
north-to-south oriented surface trough. This convergence 
coupled with divergence aloft will also help promote fgen in the
low and mid levels. Guidance also hints as some
instability feeding into these fgen circulations. These 
mesoscale forcing mechanisms continue to lower confidence in 
how widespread soaking rainfall amounts will be, as well as the
location of highest amounts in excess of 1 inch. Should this 
type of mesoscale forcing dominate, rainfall may be locally 
enhanced while also spatially smaller near the surface trough.

As guidance reaches into convective allowing model guidance 
range, high end amounts have trended upward in excess of 2 
inches, likely owing to better resolution of mesoscale 
processes. Thus, a increase in chance to see amounts between 1
to 2.5 inches is currently advertised at around 40%. Relatively
best chance of seeing high end amounts still resides within 
central to northeastern North Dakota Monday through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1111 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025

Pockets of MVFR ceilings will exist in and out in northwest
Minnesota overnight but for the most part all TAF sites except
DVL should remain VFR through at least 09z. MVFR ceilings will
linger at DVL for a majority of the first 12 hours of the TAF
period. There is a signal for brief drops again in ceilings
between 09z-15z for all TAF sites, but the signal is sporadic
enough that it does appear it should not be the prevailing
ceiling.

Southerly winds will continue through the entire TAF period,
increasing through the day tomorrow, maxing out by early
afternoon with gusts between 25-35 knots for the most part. The
highest gusts could approach 40-45 knots, but the probability
for this is lower than the aforementioned 25-35. Gusts should
diminish after sunset, but elevated sustained winds between
15-20 knots will persist after 00z.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 5 PM CDT this 
     afternoon for NDZ007-008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-
     052>054.
MN...Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 5 PM CDT this 
     afternoon for MNZ001>005-007-008-013>015.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...Perroux