211 FXUS63 KFGF 260947 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 447 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Windy conditions develop today, with wind gusts up to 50 mph from the Red River Valley into eastern North Dakota. There is a 20% chance for isolated gusts in the 50 to 60 mph range. - High confidence in a soaking rainfall Monday into Tuesday, with a 40% chance for 1 to 2.5 inches. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 404 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025 ...Synopsis... Upper ridging aloft is beginning to build east of our area, with southwest flow aloft working its way into the Northern Plains ahead of incoming upper troughing over the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies. This will allow for one more day of above average temperatures today, as well as help drive drive windy conditions today, including a 20% chance for 50 to 60 mph gusts. Upper troughing digs further into the Northern Plains through Monday and Tuesday. Sufficient forcing and moisture lends high confidence in at least a wetting rainfall within portions of eastern Dakotas into Minnesota between Monday and Tuesday. Higher end amounts are forecast within this region, including a 40% chance for 1 to 2.5 inches of rainfall. ...Windy conditions today... A tightened surface pressure gradient will remain over the eastern Dakotas into western Minnesota today, with some slight tightening still yet to occur. Winds will continue to increase aloft, with around a 50kt low level jet at 850 mb centered over the Red River Valley this afternoon. These will drive windy conditions today, with southeast turning south winds 20-30 mph, gusting to 50 mph forecast. While cloud cover is forecast to increase from west to east over eastern ND into Red River Valley, at least some daytime mixing is still expected with the help of background flow set by the tightened pressure gradient. There is, however, still some uncertainty to the degree of mixing, with deeper mixing leading to higher gusts. Some local enhancement of southerly winds aided by topographic influences are expected, commonly within the Red River Valley and Devils Lake basin. The uncertainty in boundary layer mixing as well as mesoscale influencers help introduce the 20% chance for isolated gusts 50 to 60 mph. Should wind reach 60 mph, there may be a need for upgrade to the Wind Advisory to High Wind Warning as potential for impacts ratchet up around this threshold. ...Rainfall Monday and Tuesday... The aforementioned upper ridge will continue to build north and east into Canada today, to a point where it cuts itself off as strong anticyclone near the southern Hudson Bay region by Tuesday. While this occurs, upper troughing on the cyclonic side of upper jet nosing into the Pacific Northwest will induce upper troughing into the central CONUS along with Pacific- sourced moisture. The strong upper anticyclone will promote a block-type pattern, helping split energy associated with the upper trough into interior Canada as well as into the Central Mississippi Valley by Tuesday. During this transition, sufficient moisture and forcing will produce rainfall within the Dakotas and Minnesota Monday and Tuesday. While this splitting of energy will mitigate overall strength of synoptic forcing, relatively rich moisture content along with mesoscale forcing will drive rainfall in excess of 0.25 inches, potentially as high as 2.5 inches. Strong and persistent convergence within the central and eastern Dakotas will help focus precipitation near a surface north-to-south oriented surface trough. This convergence coupled with divergence aloft will also help promote fgen in the low and mid levels. Guidance also hints as some instability feeding into these fgen circulations. These mesoscale forcing mechanisms continue to lower confidence in how widespread soaking rainfall amounts will be, as well as the location of highest amounts in excess of 1 inch. Should this type of mesoscale forcing dominate, rainfall may be locally enhanced while also spatially smaller near the surface trough. As guidance reaches into convective allowing model guidance range, high end amounts have trended upward in excess of 2 inches, likely owing to better resolution of mesoscale processes. Thus, a increase in chance to see amounts between 1 to 2.5 inches is currently advertised at around 40%. Relatively best chance of seeing high end amounts still resides within central to northeastern North Dakota Monday through Tuesday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1111 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 Pockets of MVFR ceilings will exist in and out in northwest Minnesota overnight but for the most part all TAF sites except DVL should remain VFR through at least 09z. MVFR ceilings will linger at DVL for a majority of the first 12 hours of the TAF period. There is a signal for brief drops again in ceilings between 09z-15z for all TAF sites, but the signal is sporadic enough that it does appear it should not be the prevailing ceiling. Southerly winds will continue through the entire TAF period, increasing through the day tomorrow, maxing out by early afternoon with gusts between 25-35 knots for the most part. The highest gusts could approach 40-45 knots, but the probability for this is lower than the aforementioned 25-35. Gusts should diminish after sunset, but elevated sustained winds between 15-20 knots will persist after 00z. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 5 PM CDT this afternoon for NDZ007-008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049- 052>054. MN...Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 5 PM CDT this afternoon for MNZ001>005-007-008-013>015. && $$ DISCUSSION...CJ AVIATION...Perroux