295 
FXUS64 KTSA 192314
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
614 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES... 
Updated at 1225 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025

 - Decreasing winds and cooler temperatures today. 

 - Gusty south winds return Monday morning and early afternoon, 
resulting in limited fire weather danger, before a dry cold front 
passes through Monday afternoon. 

 - Seasonable temperatures are expected Tue-Sun, with rain likely 
for the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025

Northerly winds continue to diminish this morning as transient
surface high passes over the region. By late this afternoon, 
eastern OK will already be on the back side of the high, with winds 
switching back to southerly direction. Otherwise a beautiful fall 
afternoon with dry air and temps warming into the upper 60s/low 70s 
most areas with abundant sunshine.

During the night south winds will continue to pick up, initially 
across northeast OK then elsewhere toward morning. Will see another 
chilly night from southeast OK into northwest AR with 40s for lows, 
while temps will likely bottom out in the 50s early across northeast 
OK, then remain near steady or slowly rise. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Sunday)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025

As the surface gradient quickly tightens by Monday morning, winds 
will become gusty out of the south early. Given the expected 
strength of the 850mb flow, areas mainly NW of I-44 may see some 
gusts approaching 40 mph for at least a few hours into early 
afternoon. Generally expect gusts in the 25-35 mph range elsewhere. 
As another cold front approaches Monday afternoon the gradient will 
weaken and winds decrease. Initially rather dry airmass with dew 
points in the 30s will eventually moisten to some degree, but not 
before RH drops below 30% for most areas as temps warm notably into 
the 80s across eastern OK. Thus locations in NE OK west of Highway 
75 will see a few hours of enhanced fire spread potential, with 
yesterday's rainfall tempering conditions elsewhere. 

Front expected to arrive in NE OK after 18z and be through the 
forecast area by a little after 00z with a dry passage and winds 
shifting to northwest, with a few gusts in the 20-25 mph range 
possible. Dry and cooler conditions follow Tuesday with a chilly 
start to Wednesday, followed by slight warm up Wednesday afternoon.

Next system currently cut off in the eastern Pacific will eventually 
merge with a northern wave and move slowly inland, reaching the 
Southern Plains by Thursday. Moisture return in advance of the slow 
moving trough should be sufficient for widespread rain and chances by
Thursday night and Friday. Given forecast PWAT values AOA 90th 
percentile, heavy rainfall is possible. Severe weather threat 
uncertain at this time. Rain chances linger into Saturday with mild 
temperatues through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025

VFR conditions are forecast. Winds increase overnight with
widespread swath of LLWS forecast through mid morning across the
region. Gusty south winds area wide late morning through the 
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   54  84  50  73 /   0   0   0   0 
FSM   47  82  53  74 /   0   0   0   0 
MLC   52  84  51  76 /   0   0   0   0 
BVO   48  83  44  71 /   0   0   0   0 
FYV   45  77  44  69 /   0   0   0   0 
BYV   47  75  48  66 /   0   0   0   0 
MKO   50  83  49  73 /   0   0   0   0 
MIO   48  78  45  68 /   0   0   0   0 
F10   50  84  48  75 /   0   0   0   0 
HHW   48  83  57  76 /   0   0  10   0 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...07