295 FXUS64 KTSA 192314 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 614 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1225 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025 - Decreasing winds and cooler temperatures today. - Gusty south winds return Monday morning and early afternoon, resulting in limited fire weather danger, before a dry cold front passes through Monday afternoon. - Seasonable temperatures are expected Tue-Sun, with rain likely for the end of the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight ) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025 Northerly winds continue to diminish this morning as transient surface high passes over the region. By late this afternoon, eastern OK will already be on the back side of the high, with winds switching back to southerly direction. Otherwise a beautiful fall afternoon with dry air and temps warming into the upper 60s/low 70s most areas with abundant sunshine. During the night south winds will continue to pick up, initially across northeast OK then elsewhere toward morning. Will see another chilly night from southeast OK into northwest AR with 40s for lows, while temps will likely bottom out in the 50s early across northeast OK, then remain near steady or slowly rise. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Sunday) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025 As the surface gradient quickly tightens by Monday morning, winds will become gusty out of the south early. Given the expected strength of the 850mb flow, areas mainly NW of I-44 may see some gusts approaching 40 mph for at least a few hours into early afternoon. Generally expect gusts in the 25-35 mph range elsewhere. As another cold front approaches Monday afternoon the gradient will weaken and winds decrease. Initially rather dry airmass with dew points in the 30s will eventually moisten to some degree, but not before RH drops below 30% for most areas as temps warm notably into the 80s across eastern OK. Thus locations in NE OK west of Highway 75 will see a few hours of enhanced fire spread potential, with yesterday's rainfall tempering conditions elsewhere. Front expected to arrive in NE OK after 18z and be through the forecast area by a little after 00z with a dry passage and winds shifting to northwest, with a few gusts in the 20-25 mph range possible. Dry and cooler conditions follow Tuesday with a chilly start to Wednesday, followed by slight warm up Wednesday afternoon. Next system currently cut off in the eastern Pacific will eventually merge with a northern wave and move slowly inland, reaching the Southern Plains by Thursday. Moisture return in advance of the slow moving trough should be sufficient for widespread rain and chances by Thursday night and Friday. Given forecast PWAT values AOA 90th percentile, heavy rainfall is possible. Severe weather threat uncertain at this time. Rain chances linger into Saturday with mild temperatues through Sunday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 612 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025 VFR conditions are forecast. Winds increase overnight with widespread swath of LLWS forecast through mid morning across the region. Gusty south winds area wide late morning through the afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 54 84 50 73 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 47 82 53 74 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 52 84 51 76 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 48 83 44 71 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 45 77 44 69 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 47 75 48 66 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 50 83 49 73 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 48 78 45 68 / 0 0 0 0 F10 50 84 48 75 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 48 83 57 76 / 0 0 10 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...07