972 
FXUS62 KFFC 280617
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
217 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025


...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 211 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025

 - Dry air will move in behind the cold front. 

 - Thunderstorms will be confined to the eastern portions of the
  CWA.

  - Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible through much of the 
	weekend.

  - Temperatures more seasonable tomorrow onward.

  - High uncertainty in forecast beyond Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 147 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025

The front has essentially stalled right over the ATL metro area. 
While a few areas behind the front have shown some light returns, 
lightning activity has been confined to areas east of GA-400/I-75. 
By tomorrow the front will push off to the NE brining cooler and 
dryer weather to the CWA. 

Temps today will range from the low to mid 80s with cooler 
temperatures overnight then we've seen over the past few days. This 
trend will continue tomorrow and into the early part of the week as 
high pressure and dry air settle in.  

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday morning through next Friday)
Issued at 147 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025

Current reflectivity and satellite shows increased convection across 
central Georgia, initializing earlier and with more coverage than 
models indicate. Current sfc analysis shows two regions of tighter 
temp gradients which are reflected in the double line of showers and 
thunderstorms near MCN and CSG stretching southwest respectively. 
The CU field continues to become more disturbed across the metro and 
northern Georgia, however persistent cloud coverage has inhibited 
daytime heating somewhat. Current convection appears to require at 
least 1500+ J/Kg of MLCAPE to begin producing (see north Georgia 
precip and central GA thunderstorms). Convection is likely to begin 
across the I20 corridor shortly, however convection to the south may 
eat up much of the northward transport of energy. Not totally buying 
CAMs attempt at the development of a tertiary line developing in 
eastern AL beyond 23Z. Overall, confidence in the exact coverage and 
intensity of precip in the metro is low given the current 
compounding factors. The good news overall is that severe potential 
has decreased as convective potential has separated from much of the 
bulk shear support. Still could see a few strong thunderstorms in 
areas with MUCAPE >2000J/Kg.

Going into the overnight hours, calm mostly calm and moist 
conditions will mean a risk of patchy fog across much of the area. 
Limiting factor with this will be patchy showers which may last 
through the overnight hours. Total precipitation in central Georgia 
through Friday is relatively unimpressive given the spotty coverage. 
Some will get lucky with QPF of around 1" while others may get just 
over 0.25". 

The good news overall is that with increased cloud cover and the 
passing cold front, temperatures tomorrow will be more seasonable 
with highs in the mid to low 80s. The far southeast regions of the 
CWA may not be so luck with the front progression and highs may 
still reach the upper 80s. Thunderstorm potential returns Friday 
afternoon, mostly in central Georgia, due to further frontogenesis 
around the base of the low as it moves over the north GA mountains. 
No severe weather is anticipated with this, however a few rumbles of 
thunder may be possible.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 211 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025

VFR conditions will generally prevail across most sites through 
the 06Z TAF period under mostly clear skies. A caveat to this is 
potential for patchy fog to develop early this morning and bring a
brief period of low VIS/CIGs. This would be most likely at AHN 
and MCN, with a low but non-zero chance at ATL area sites and CSG.
Any fog would burn off by 14Z. Light E-NE winds this morning will
increase to around 6-10kts during the day and persist through the
rest of the TAF period.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...

Low confidence on development of patchy fog this morning. High on
all other elements and times.

Culver

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          82  65  76  64 /  10  10  20  20 
Atlanta         84  67  79  66 /   0   0  10  10 
Blairsville     79  58  77  58 /  10   0  30  20 
Cartersville    86  64  83  63 /   0   0  10  10 
Columbus        88  68  83  66 /   0   0  10  10 
Gainesville     83  66  78  65 /  10  10  20  20 
Macon           86  67  79  66 /  10  10  20  10 
Rome            87  65  86  64 /   0   0  10  10 
Peachtree City  85  65  80  64 /  10   0  10  10 
Vidalia         88  69  81  68 /  20  20  50  20 

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Vaughn
LONG TERM....SM
AVIATION...Culver