972 FXUS62 KFFC 280617 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 217 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025 ...New 06Z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 211 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025 - Dry air will move in behind the cold front. - Thunderstorms will be confined to the eastern portions of the CWA. - Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible through much of the weekend. - Temperatures more seasonable tomorrow onward. - High uncertainty in forecast beyond Sunday. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 147 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025 The front has essentially stalled right over the ATL metro area. While a few areas behind the front have shown some light returns, lightning activity has been confined to areas east of GA-400/I-75. By tomorrow the front will push off to the NE brining cooler and dryer weather to the CWA. Temps today will range from the low to mid 80s with cooler temperatures overnight then we've seen over the past few days. This trend will continue tomorrow and into the early part of the week as high pressure and dry air settle in. && .LONG TERM... (Monday morning through next Friday) Issued at 147 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025 Current reflectivity and satellite shows increased convection across central Georgia, initializing earlier and with more coverage than models indicate. Current sfc analysis shows two regions of tighter temp gradients which are reflected in the double line of showers and thunderstorms near MCN and CSG stretching southwest respectively. The CU field continues to become more disturbed across the metro and northern Georgia, however persistent cloud coverage has inhibited daytime heating somewhat. Current convection appears to require at least 1500+ J/Kg of MLCAPE to begin producing (see north Georgia precip and central GA thunderstorms). Convection is likely to begin across the I20 corridor shortly, however convection to the south may eat up much of the northward transport of energy. Not totally buying CAMs attempt at the development of a tertiary line developing in eastern AL beyond 23Z. Overall, confidence in the exact coverage and intensity of precip in the metro is low given the current compounding factors. The good news overall is that severe potential has decreased as convective potential has separated from much of the bulk shear support. Still could see a few strong thunderstorms in areas with MUCAPE >2000J/Kg. Going into the overnight hours, calm mostly calm and moist conditions will mean a risk of patchy fog across much of the area. Limiting factor with this will be patchy showers which may last through the overnight hours. Total precipitation in central Georgia through Friday is relatively unimpressive given the spotty coverage. Some will get lucky with QPF of around 1" while others may get just over 0.25". The good news overall is that with increased cloud cover and the passing cold front, temperatures tomorrow will be more seasonable with highs in the mid to low 80s. The far southeast regions of the CWA may not be so luck with the front progression and highs may still reach the upper 80s. Thunderstorm potential returns Friday afternoon, mostly in central Georgia, due to further frontogenesis around the base of the low as it moves over the north GA mountains. No severe weather is anticipated with this, however a few rumbles of thunder may be possible. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 211 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025 VFR conditions will generally prevail across most sites through the 06Z TAF period under mostly clear skies. A caveat to this is potential for patchy fog to develop early this morning and bring a brief period of low VIS/CIGs. This would be most likely at AHN and MCN, with a low but non-zero chance at ATL area sites and CSG. Any fog would burn off by 14Z. Light E-NE winds this morning will increase to around 6-10kts during the day and persist through the rest of the TAF period. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... Low confidence on development of patchy fog this morning. High on all other elements and times. Culver && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 82 65 76 64 / 10 10 20 20 Atlanta 84 67 79 66 / 0 0 10 10 Blairsville 79 58 77 58 / 10 0 30 20 Cartersville 86 64 83 63 / 0 0 10 10 Columbus 88 68 83 66 / 0 0 10 10 Gainesville 83 66 78 65 / 10 10 20 20 Macon 86 67 79 66 / 10 10 20 10 Rome 87 65 86 64 / 0 0 10 10 Peachtree City 85 65 80 64 / 10 0 10 10 Vidalia 88 69 81 68 / 20 20 50 20 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Vaughn LONG TERM....SM AVIATION...Culver