831 
FXUS64 KMOB 251732
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1232 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025

Not much change to the overall synoptic pattern as we still expect 
the southern portion of a large posivively-tiled upper trough 
extending from southeast Canada to north Texas to swing east- 
southeastward and deepen with the axis reaching Alabama and the 
central Gulf by midnight Friday night. The trough then stalls 
between an upper ridge building over the Great Plains and an upper
high pressure area over the Atlantic. The trough then evolves 
into a weak cut-off low over the southeast CONUS on Saturday, and
then meanders about through early next week as Tropical Cyclone 
Humberto is forecast to track north-northwestward over the western
Atlantic. A surface low pressure area across western Kentucky is 
expected to lift northeastward today and weaken into a trough,
with an associated weak cold front approaching our region from the
northwest. This front is expected to enter into our area tonight 
and then stall near the coast on Friday before making a push 
offshore Friday night. 

Deep west-southwest flow will keep PWATs elevated to between 2.0-
2.25 inches over our entire area today. Mostly cloudy skies will 
only allow our high temperatures to reach the low to mid 80s (or 
around seasonal norms). As a result, MLCAPE values will be held at
bay and only reach between 1000 to 1500 J/kg. We will see the 
next round of convective activity along the coast before daybreak,
and this convection will expand northward this morning, followed 
by numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms most areas 
persisting throughout the day. A few of the stronger thunderstorms
today and this evening will be capable of gusty surface winds up 
to 40 mph, brief heavy downpours, and frequent lightning. Most of 
the precipitation will become focused southeast of I-65 by late 
this evening into Friday, prior to us drying our Friday night 
through the weekend behind the weak cold front.

High temperatures will be around seasonal norms again on Friday,
before rebounding to slightly above normal over the weekend 
through the first half of next week. The low temperature will 
remain above normal through the entire forecast.

Beach Forecast: A LOW rip current risk is expected through early
next week, although there could be a brief period (several hours) 
of a moderate rip current risk late this afternoon along the 
Florida beaches. /22

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025

A primarily broken band of pre-frontal clouds is streaming
eastward across the Gulf coast to start the TAF period. Bases are
a mix with a few to scattered lower bases generally 1 to 3 kft
below broken bases at mid levels. A broken and weakening area of 
precipitation has shifted to east of the I-65 corridor initially.
There are indications that new development, possible convection 
will occur mid to late afternoon and spread eastward this evening.
Brief gusty winds and reductions to vsby likely with passage of 
tsra. Frontal boundary makes passage by around midnight and brings
a light northwest component for winds in its wake. /10

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025

No significant impacts to small craft are expected outside of 
locally higher winds/seas and reduced visibilities associated with
occasional showers and thunderstorms through Friday. Otherwise, a
light southwesterly flow will shift westerly today, followed by a
light mostly offshore flow Friday night through the weekend as a 
weak frontal boundary pushes south of the area. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      68  86  63  88  63  89  65  91 /  40  10   0   0   0   0   0  10 
Pensacola   72  85  69  88  67  89  68  89 /  60  40  10  10   0   0   0  10 
Destin      73  84  71  86  70  88  71  88 /  80  70  10  10   0   0   0  10 
Evergreen   67  87  62  89  60  90  63  91 /  50  20   0   0   0   0   0  10 
Waynesboro  63  85  61  86  59  87  62  89 /  10  10   0   0   0   0   0   0 
Camden      65  85  63  86  62  88  63  88 /  30  10   0   0   0   0   0  10 
Crestview   68  85  63  88  62  90  63  90 /  70  50  10  10   0   0   0  10 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob