831 FXUS64 KMOB 251732 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1232 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025 ...New Aviation... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1230 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025 Not much change to the overall synoptic pattern as we still expect the southern portion of a large posivively-tiled upper trough extending from southeast Canada to north Texas to swing east- southeastward and deepen with the axis reaching Alabama and the central Gulf by midnight Friday night. The trough then stalls between an upper ridge building over the Great Plains and an upper high pressure area over the Atlantic. The trough then evolves into a weak cut-off low over the southeast CONUS on Saturday, and then meanders about through early next week as Tropical Cyclone Humberto is forecast to track north-northwestward over the western Atlantic. A surface low pressure area across western Kentucky is expected to lift northeastward today and weaken into a trough, with an associated weak cold front approaching our region from the northwest. This front is expected to enter into our area tonight and then stall near the coast on Friday before making a push offshore Friday night. Deep west-southwest flow will keep PWATs elevated to between 2.0- 2.25 inches over our entire area today. Mostly cloudy skies will only allow our high temperatures to reach the low to mid 80s (or around seasonal norms). As a result, MLCAPE values will be held at bay and only reach between 1000 to 1500 J/kg. We will see the next round of convective activity along the coast before daybreak, and this convection will expand northward this morning, followed by numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms most areas persisting throughout the day. A few of the stronger thunderstorms today and this evening will be capable of gusty surface winds up to 40 mph, brief heavy downpours, and frequent lightning. Most of the precipitation will become focused southeast of I-65 by late this evening into Friday, prior to us drying our Friday night through the weekend behind the weak cold front. High temperatures will be around seasonal norms again on Friday, before rebounding to slightly above normal over the weekend through the first half of next week. The low temperature will remain above normal through the entire forecast. Beach Forecast: A LOW rip current risk is expected through early next week, although there could be a brief period (several hours) of a moderate rip current risk late this afternoon along the Florida beaches. /22 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025 A primarily broken band of pre-frontal clouds is streaming eastward across the Gulf coast to start the TAF period. Bases are a mix with a few to scattered lower bases generally 1 to 3 kft below broken bases at mid levels. A broken and weakening area of precipitation has shifted to east of the I-65 corridor initially. There are indications that new development, possible convection will occur mid to late afternoon and spread eastward this evening. Brief gusty winds and reductions to vsby likely with passage of tsra. Frontal boundary makes passage by around midnight and brings a light northwest component for winds in its wake. /10 && .MARINE... Issued at 1230 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025 No significant impacts to small craft are expected outside of locally higher winds/seas and reduced visibilities associated with occasional showers and thunderstorms through Friday. Otherwise, a light southwesterly flow will shift westerly today, followed by a light mostly offshore flow Friday night through the weekend as a weak frontal boundary pushes south of the area. /22 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 68 86 63 88 63 89 65 91 / 40 10 0 0 0 0 0 10 Pensacola 72 85 69 88 67 89 68 89 / 60 40 10 10 0 0 0 10 Destin 73 84 71 86 70 88 71 88 / 80 70 10 10 0 0 0 10 Evergreen 67 87 62 89 60 90 63 91 / 50 20 0 0 0 0 0 10 Waynesboro 63 85 61 86 59 87 62 89 / 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 Camden 65 85 63 86 62 88 63 88 / 30 10 0 0 0 0 0 10 Crestview 68 85 63 88 62 90 63 90 / 70 50 10 10 0 0 0 10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob