361 
FXUS61 KCLE 040743
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
343 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will become centered over the area through this 
afternoon. Low pressure moving northeast out of the Mississippi 
Valley will move a warm front north late Friday evening into the 
overnight hours. Another disturbance impacts the area on Saturday 
into Sunday as a cold front pushes east. Another low pressure 
approaches the area from the northwest on Monday before high 
pressure returns Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
An active pattern persists through the near term period as multiple 
disturbances look to track along the leading edge of a deepening 
upper level trough over the western US. The positioning of this 
trough is allowing for a consistent stream of moisture from the Gulf 
north through the Ohio River Valley with PWAT values of 1-1.5 inches 
spanning that entire area. In addition, a strong upper level jet and 
areas of enhanced vorticity with the aforementioned shortwave 
disturbances will allow for upper level support for shower 
development through the period. The timing of associated surface 
features and boundaries will be key to when the greatest potential 
for heavy rain and possible thunderstorms will be. 

Currently, high pressure is building over the area behind a 
departing cold front to the southeast. Weak forcing on the front 
edge of the high has allowed for scattered light rain showers to 
occur over the far southern counties this morning. These showers 
will continue to push southeast of the area over the coming hours, 
allowing for the aforementioned high to become centered over the 
area for much of today. This will allow for dry conditions, although 
lingering moisture should keep cloudy conditions around. 

This evening, a warm front associated with a surface low moving 
northeast along the Mississippi River Valley into the Ohio River 
Valley will result in showers gradually spreading north across the 
area once again. Coinciding with the movement of this front, a 
strong LLJ near 45-50 knots will surge north and provide additional 
support for shower and thunderstorm development. Overall instability 
seems to be limited, especially given the diurnally unfavorable 
timing, however cannot rule out some thunder occurring across the 
southern counties tonight into early Saturday. As the parent low 
tracks through the central Great Lakes on Saturday, a cold front 
will drape southwest somewhere across the area, although the exact 
location diverges a bit amongst models. Ahead of this boundary, 
increasing temperatures, continued moisture advection, weak 
instability and strong shear will result in a risk for the 
development of scattered strong to severe storms. The primary threat 
with any storm development will be strong winds and large hail. SPC 
has highlighted an area extending from near Youngstown OH southwest 
to Marion OH in a Day 2 Marginal Risk for severe weather.  

The more notable concern with this entire system late Friday through 
Saturday is the potential for flooding across the area, especially 
in locations that see multiple rounds of heavy precipitation. As the 
aforementioned warm front lifts north Friday night into Saturday, 
deepening warm cloud layers and increasing PWAT values will result 
in heavy rainfall across the area with an additional 1-1.25" 
expected across the entire area. There are expected to be locally 
higher amounts across southern counties with areas of total QPF over 
1.5" possible. To highlight these higher PWAT values and potential 
impacts, WPC has highlighted the southern counties in a Slight Risk 
for excessive rainfall. In addition, areas along and west of I-77 
remain under a Flood Watch into Sunday to account for the potential 
river flooding in addition to localized flash and urban flooding. 
Stay tuned to the forecast for additional updates. 

High temperatures today will be a bit cooler, only climbing into the 
mid-50s for much of the area, with slightly cooler temperatures 
possible along the lakeshore. Temperatures tonight will have little 
change in areas where the warm front lifts north, leaving the 
northwestern portion of the CWA the only locations with a notable 
cool down into the low to mid 40s. Highs on Saturday will climb into 
he mid to upper 60s along and east of I-71 with temperatures to the 
west expected to remain in the 50s. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will finally push the baroclinic zone that has 
affected the CWA for the past several days to the south and east, 
thanks to the main energy from the upper level low finally ejecting 
out of the four corners region of the southwest. Some lingering rain 
Saturday night prior to exit and will see the best forcing for this 
round of rainfall from 00-06Z Sunday in the low/mid level 
frontogenesis. Should see around an inch of rain for the southern 
zones from 00Z Sunday onward, with the bulk of the rain out of the 
area by 12Z, representing the last of the significant precipitation 
from this pattern. Dry weather quickly moves in for Sunday, but a 
chilly day is expected as 850mb temperatures drop below 0C with 
surface and low level cold air advection occurring. A late secondary 
band of f-gen sets up on the southeastern edge of the CWA after 00Z 
Monday producing rain/snow showers due to temperatures in the 30s, 
and exiting quickly. 

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Sharp upper trough swings through the Great Lakes with a cold front 
Monday, reinforcing the colder air from the Sunday high pressure 
system. More cold air advection as 850mb temperatures plummet into 
the -10C to -14C range. Surface temperatures in the 45-50F range 
Monday before the cold air advection occurs, but falling into the 
low to mid 20s Monday night. Precipitation with the cold front and 
in the post frontal environment primarily as rain/snow showers 
changing to all snow showers Monday night through Tuesday. As of 
this issuance, despite the prevailing surface/low level northwest 
flow, but a steady stream of moisture does not look as of yet that 
it will materialize. So in terms of snowfall and snow amounts, a 
couple inches possible in NW PA, and an inch or less westward in NE 
OH. Despite the cold air and only 30s for highs Tuesday, sun angle 
this time of year will not allow much residence time of snow on the 
ground. High pressure moves in late Tuesday night and Wednesday, 
quickly exiting to the east and allowing for  quick temperature 
modification mid week. Another upper trough/surface low pressure 
system expected Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Light rain showers continue to skirt the southern portion of the
area, periodically impacting KCAK and KMFD with reduced 
visibilities to MVFR distances. Ceilings are consistently 
remaining between 4-9kft across the area and are not expected to
diminish much, even in showers. These aforementioned showers 
will continue to diminish and drift southeast of the area 
through the morning hours, no longer impacting any terminals by 
10Z. This will allow for all terminals to remain dry for much of
the day with VFR conditions. The next round of showers will 
approach from the south beginning near 21Z, spreading north 
across the entire area through the remainder of this TAF period.
As these showers become more steady into the late evening 
hours, expect widespread visibilities to be reduced to 4SM or 
less and ceilings to gradually diminish to MVFR heights and 
eventually to IFR at the very end of this period. There remains 
a bit of uncertainty with thunder potential at terminals, but 
opted to include VCTS at terminals where confidence is highest, 
but will have to monitor the environment throughout the day 
given the diurnally unfavorable timing. 

Winds today will remain from the east-northeast at 5-10 knots
ahead of an approaching warm front and associated showers from
the south. Near the end of this period, winds will gradually
begin to shift to the east-southeast at 5-12. Isolated gusts up
to 20 knots are possible along and east of I71, but should not 
be widespread or frequent.

Outlook...Non-VFR conditions are likely in showers and 
thunderstorms Friday night into Saturday with non-VFR ceilings 
continuing into Sunday. Additional non-VFR conditions possible 
in rain and snow showers Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Northeast wind 15kts brings western basin wave heights up to 2-4ft, 
slightly less further east today. Friday night into Saturday, expect 
highly variable wind directions as low pressure/warm front/cold 
front affects Lake Erie as it moves through the region with around 
15kt winds and wave heights 1-3ft in general. Saturday night into 
Sunday, winds out of the north 15-20kts and approaching SCA for the 
central basin with 3-4ft waves, easing Sunday night. Another cold 
front Monday brings winds back out of the northwest 15-25kts through 
Tuesday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OHZ003-006>011-017>021-
     027>032-036>038-047.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...04
MARINE...26